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Mikhail Delyagin, Doctor of Economics
Public director of Globalization Problem Institute

                       General theory of globalization
                             «World for Russia:
               the way we need it and what we can do with it»
                   (Analytical report open part in brief)

                               September 1998


|Resume                                                    |2         |
|I. Information technologies expansion                     |3         |

| On difference significance in the technological time     |          |
|speed                                                     |          |
|1.2. New resources for new technologies                   |9         |
|1.3. Old technologies «depreciation»                      |10        |
|II. Several consequences of markets globalization         |12        |
|2.1. Competition globalization – monopolies globalization |12        |
|2.2. «Euro»: suppression of threat and destructive egoism |13        |
|!2.3. Financial competition                               |14        |
| Technological process slowdown                           |          |
|III. Global regulation for global competition             |17        |
|3.1. What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»?       |17        |

w6  |
|3.3. Value of global regulation                           |18        |

                          About the author in brief

      Delyagin, Mikhail Gennadjevich, born in 1968, Doctor of Economics.

      From 1990 till 1993 – expert of the B. Eltsyn Group of Experts,  since
1994 – leading analyst of  the  President  of  Russia  Analytic  Department,
since 1996 – referent of the President  of  Russia  assistant.  Since  March
1997 – advisor of the vice-prime-minister –  Minister  of  Internals,  since
June 1997 – advisor of the first vice-prime-minister Mr. B. Nemtsov. On  his
leaving the government one day  prior  to  August  17th,  he  established  a
Globalization Problem Institute. In the beginning of October 1998 after  new
government under Mr. Primakov had started its work, he was restored  at  the
public service.

      He has more than 300 publications  (including  in  the  USA,  Germany,
France, China, India, Egypt etc.), 4 monographs, with the latest -  «Economy
of non-payments» was republished for three times since 1996 till 1997.


1. Information technologies development has brought to:

    . «meta-technologies» creation, application of which makes it impossible
      for the party which applies such  technologies  to  compete  with  the
      developers of these technologies;

    .  reorientation  of  technologies  from  necessary   material   objects
      formation  to  necessary  type  of  conscious  and  culture  formation
      (transformation from high-tech to high-hume);

    . acceleration of information technologies development  to  such  extent
      that «short», theoretical investments  are  productive  for  the  most
      advanced information technologies;

    . approximate depreciation of traditional technologies;

    . Information society creation in  which  money  plays  second  role  as
      compared with technologies.

7. Major humanity technological development prospects:

    . Exacerbation and compelling character acquisition by divultion between
      developed and backward countries, and also between developed countries
      and creating new technologies and the rest developed countries;

    . Insulation of people engaged in information technologies into internal
      «information community», its concentration in  the  territory  of  the
      developed countries; slow concentration of the «information community»
      of the world and together with it concentration of the world  progress
      in the «most developed» countries;

    . progress  termination  beyond  the  developed  countries;  social  and
      financial degradation of the developing countries;

    . Possible abrupt slowdown of the  progress  in  the  result  of  global
      financial crises and  destructive  competition  between  the  USA  and
      European Currency Union.

12. Global monopolies formation is being performed:

    . At global markets of separate financial instruments;

    . In the course of these markets integration process (reduction  of  the
      «transformation value» among them to negligible level) as  information
      technologies advance – in the form of the united global monopoly.

   These processes will  demand  in  the  nearest  future  creation  of  the
overnational regulation mechanism for global monopolies, which  will  be  of
more malaise character.

| The whole development of the humanity including in the field of     |
|economics is determined nowadays and will be determined in the       |
|nearest decade by progress to the new qualitative level with two     |
|fundamental processes simultaneously: new technologies development,  |
|information technologies primarily, and based on it quick competition|
|globalization, primarily in the financial markets.                   |

                 !lvl0I.  Information technologies expansion

   1.1.     Information technologies: money recedes into the background

   Technological development has brought in the middle  nineties  to  actual
creation by the most advanced part of the humanity  that  very  «information
community» which has been widely discussed for the last decades and so  that
no one takes the matter seriously.

      Realities of  its  functioning,  casual  connections  and  competitive
potential by the reason of intellectual and technological gap can be  hardly
perceivable by those who are beyond of that process.

      The most important  way  of  showing  this  qualitative  technological
breakthrough which has lead to creation of the information  society  and  at
the same time one of its major parts is creation and quick  distribution  of
the so-called «meta-technologies».

      Specifics of this type of technologies lies in that that the  fact  of
thier implementation makes  for  the  party  which  uses  such  technologies
principially impossible to compete with the developer of these  technologies
in a  serious  level.  This  may  be  called  a  price  for  access  to  the
effectiveness of a higher level which is provided by such  technologies  and
which might be  found  in  dealer  and  licensed  systems.  Modern  advanced
technologies in direct or indirect form place the user in the position of  a

      The most telling examples of meta-technologies are:

      . Network computer: distribution of its memory in  the  net  provides
        the developer with the whole information of the user and allows the
        developer to interfere into activity  of  the  latter  or  even  to
        control it (external control principle of the plugged  in  computer
        has bee already realized);

      . Modern  communication  technologies  which  allow  to  wiretap  all
        telephone messages all  over  the  world;  in  the  nearest  future
        computer processing of the whole volume of these messages and  also
        wiretap of all messages in the Internet will be possible;

      . Different organization technologies; their main subgroups:

        *   Control   technologies,    including    corporation    activity
          organization: oriented to culture and value system of the country
          the developer, such technologies reduce  competitiveness  of  the
          corporations which represent other cultures; we should also  note
          that in general distribution within a society of a foreign  types
          of culture which do not integrate with the culture of the society
          and as the result the culture which  not  only  enriches  it  but
          remains detached from it, makes competitiveness of  this  society

        * Formation of the mass conscious technology: permanent  adaptation
          of the  latter  to  the  forms  of  influence  arouses  objective
          necessity in permanent renovation of the forms; without renovated
          technologies which at first appear in  the  leading  country  and
          then are distributed in other countries  mass  conscious  of  the
          society using technologies which influence it  will  get  out  of
          hand of the state.

      Nowadays the said technologies have  become  predominating  for  their
being the most productive. These technologies having sweepingly  spread  for
the last  years  have  already  become  a  technological  component  of  the
information society: if we speak about it from the  technological  point  of
view we possibly half-consciously and non knowing about their  peculiarities
we intend first of all meta-technologies.

      It is quite natural, that conscious transformation  from  creation  of
new technologies to their distribution and which is followed by creation  of
information society was expressed in the clearest  form  by  the  leader  of
this process Mr.  W.  Gates.  He  pointed  out  that  the  main  factor  for
information technologies development as compared with the previous  of  1997
year, lays not in their upgrading but in complex usage of  already  existing
technical  means  for  «information  transparency»  of   all   countries   —
«transparency» as far as it can be  understood  quiet  homogeneous  for  the
countries creating meta-technologies  and  aiming  at  protection  of  their
global competitive advantages.

      But significance of information technology distribution is not limited
by creation  of  meta-technologies  and  safe  provision  of  psychological,
intellectual  and  technological  leadership  of  their  creators.   Besides
provision of global information transparency  the  most  important  part  of
information technologies is the possibility (in 1999 it is still  potential)
for deep and quite free reconstruction of mass conscious.

      The point is  that  unlike  traditional  «material»  technologies  the
product of which are the goods,  the  product  of  information  technologies
nolens volens is a certain condition of the human conscious  including  mass
conscious. Moreover: the most significant part of  information  technologies
was primarily aimed at such reconstruction  of  human  conscious  taking  it
into consideration as the major purpose for influence.

      It is more effective to influence  conscious  than  to  influence  the
material. Technologies connected with it have  already  received  the  name.
They  are  called  «high-hume»  versus  «high-tech».   In   previous   times
technologies were oriented to matter but nowadays they  are  reorienting  to
the public conscience, public  culture.  Besides  their  high  productivity,
«high-hume» technologies differ with high changeability, i.e. maximum  speed
of making progress.

      The pioneers of their exploration — the USA — engage the  most  mobile
and in correspondingly the  most  effective  form  of  financial  capital  —
venture capital — to creation of the  most  effective  type  of  information
technologies. Engagement  of  such  capital  to  creation  of  the  ordinary
technologies as it is may be shown  by  the  experience  of  the  developing
countries  is  impossible  because  of  «slowness»  of  the  non-information
technologies: performance of any project connected  with  such  technologies
demand for larger time period than traditionally «short» venture capital  is
ready to be invested.

      In the result of it we observe destructive non-compliance of the speed
of  the  venture  capital  turnover   and   establishment   of   traditional
technologies. Wide-ranging  investments  of  the  venture  capital  are  not
effective for the national economy because of the said  factors:  it  leaves
without creating anything real and leaving after it only desolation.

      But the speed of information technology development has a  qualitative
higher  rank  than  ordinary   technologies.   That   is   why   information
technologies are the only type of technologies in respect of  which  «short»
venture capital has a quite normal productivity. Their  technological  cycle
is so small that it corresponds  to  the  speed  of  the  financial  capital

      That is why the American economy should not be afraid of «distending a
soap exchange bubble»: it looks  like  a  soap  bubble  only  from  outside.
Actually the huge part of these venture investments  is  directed  into  the
information technologies and at expense of their accelerated tempo of  their
development carries for their recipient  quite  normal  productive  but  not
venture character.

      This is the principal advantage of the American economy over economics
of other countries of the world. This is the  reason  for  its  medium  term
stability in the forthcoming global financial

|On difference significance in the technological time speed           |
|Significance of the time factor in new conditions is evidently       |
|demonstrated by the mass bankruptcy of computer firms in the USA. The|
|bankruptcy is followed by the fact that implementation of new        |
|technological principles demands for such period of time that these  |
|principles become outdated.                                          |
|Thus, the company which directs a part of its resources from the     |
|sphere of technological race to the practical realization of new     |
|decisions reaches the slow scale of «technological time» and fails as|
|compared with its competitors which remain in the zone of «pure»     |
|sphere of new ideas development in which the technological times     |
|changes in a quicker way.                                            |

      But application of «high-hume» technologies  is  connected  also  with
danger. Thus, seeming easiness and impunity of  conscious  influence  arouse
the most dangerous professional illness of  the  employees  engaged  in  the
sphere of public relations – it! is the temptation to solve problems not  in
the real way but with the help of the so-called «brainwashing» method or  we
may use more exact German analogue of this term: ote Seelenmassage».

      The first problem of «high-hume» is connected  with  it:  on  carrying
away by it the control system (of the state or of  the  corporation)  starts
the process of self-hypnosis that makes it  inadequate.  It  is  principally
important: «high-hume» technologies are dangerous not only  for  the  object
of their influence, but for their user as they also transform  conscious  of
the user.

      The second problem: to reach the political result it  will  be  enough
for the user of  the  «high-hume»  technology  to  form  necessary  type  of
conscious of no more than 20% of the  population  being  the  elite  of  the
society and influence on taking resolutions and being the example.

      Efforts in this direction evidently draw the line  between  the  elite
and general mass of  population  and  create  within  the  society  internal
disagreements between the  self-hypnosed  elite  and  the  rest  population.
Moreover: the elite being apart from the population  began  to  percept  the
ideas, which correspond to its principles. In the result of it  80%  of  the
intellectual potential of the society is lost – while the

      Thus, gradual appliance of information technologies in respect of  the
elite class of the society is limited by the area of democratic  borders  of
the elite class itself and that is why it reduces the society potential.  We
saw the example of the Russian reformers of 1992 —  1998  years,  who  could
run away from  the  population  by  application  such  advanced  information
technologies to themselves to such extent as the  communists  could  do  for
seventy years of their domination.

      In the result of it we have  a  paradox:  more  advanced  informa6tion
society should be less flexible and adaptive and as  a  result  less  viable
but more stable in its confrontation with non-information  society.  Is  not
it the reason for paradox viability of the authoritarian regimes in the  end
of XX century?

      It is possible that this phenomenon is an «implemented guarantee» from
the informational imperialism, from subordination of  the  entire  world  to
one the most informed country. And the total mortification of the  conscious
of other countries with the help of information technologies  is  impossible
because  of  differences  in  cultural  aspect  which  automatically  defend
minimal intellectual and information sovereignty of each nation  separately.
But it would be too naive to hope for it as  the  major  resolution  of  the
forthcoming problems under  the  circumstances  of  gradual  integration  of
cultures into united culture for the whole world (On the  first  stage  into
three major cultures — Christian, Islamic and Buddhistic).

      Taking into consideration a private case of information war – «culture
aggression» (i.e. obtrusion of its own culture to the society the  potential
of  which  it  does  not  correspond)  as  an  instrument  of  international
competition (applied only mainly in the inconscient way,  in  the  order  of
markets winning for sale — the carries  of  such  culture),  we  should  re-
estimate the role playing by traditions.

      Traditions are the psychological protection from something new: it  is
the attempt to live as  if  nothing  has  happened.  In  the  conditions  of
reconstruction of mass conscious of actual and probable competitors  of  the
tradition  starts  to  act  not  like  an  ostrich,  but  it  goes   through
minimization of negative consequences in changes  having  «squatter»  order:
attempt to cancel by ignoring of these  charges  or  cancellation  of  their
major part. I.e. it is a spontaneous reflection of  the  information  attack
by the information method.

                                *     *     *

      The  above  said  means  that  creation  and  distribution  of   meta-
technologies reduces significance of financial resources from the  point  of
view of competitiveness of the societies  and  corporations:  if  they  have
been  the  main  source  of  power  earlier,  now  they  become   only   its
consequence. Intellect has become the  main  source  of  the  market  power.
Intellect is embodied in  organizational  structures  of  the  research  and
market corporations creating  meta-technologies  and  holding  control  over
such technologies.

      Rephrasing Mr. M. Fridman we can  say  that  money  recedes  into  the
background after creation of the information society.  The  reason  lies  in
the following: that  property  right  for  the  meta-technologies  makes  an
organically inalienable part of the holder and his intellect, with the  help
of which these technologies have been created and are  supported,  according
to technological reasons.

      Meta-technologies in a greater degree  will  transform  in  a  «second
nature» making the borders and creating conditions for  development  of  the
personality and the humanity in general. As  such  these  technologies  will
gradually exchange market relationship and property rights performing  these
functions since the moment of money appearance.

                  1.2.  New resources for new technologies

      Disintegration of the USSR has given to the developed countries such a
financial and intellectual possibility that  they  were  able  to  speed  up
their development on the «lagan» of the disintegrated USSR  (differences  in
orientations and correspondingly outlook for Europe and the USA  shows  that
the first one has got finances and the latter  –  intellect).  Thus,  having
won in the cold war developed countries  not  only  destroyed  their  global
antagonist as we have got used to consider but  they  managed  to  do  more:
they have  captured  and  used  its  resources  which  were  truly  speaking
dreadfully used (the socialism differed from  the  capitalism  also  in  the
fact that on preparing the best in the  world  people  resources  it  united
them into organizations in the worst way).

      It  has  a  principal  importance  that   in   the   new   information
postindustrial world the most important resources are first of all  finances
and intellect, which may travel very easily from one territory  to  another,
but not the territory with fixed production and people.

      That is why the appeal to the people from developed countries, who are
capable to organize system of government, had no sense in the nineties:  new
major resources for development are not attached  to  a  certain  territory!
Nowadays the effective  frontier  consists  not  only  in  recovery  of  the
society within such a  territory  but  otherwise  in  isolation  within  the
society  with  further  exemption  from  its  main  part  of   healthy   and
progressive elements, i.e. people – carriers of finances and intellect.

      In such  method  of  frontier  the  progress  of  the  more  developed
«frontiering» society goes at expense  of  degradation  of  the  society  on
frontier, and the scales of degradation of the society on destruction  outgo
victory in culture and  in  progress  of  the  more  developed  society.  As
compared with traditional harmonic processes of development, development  at
expense of a alien degradation has always the  character  of  a  «play  with
negative sum».

      Thus, distribution  of  information  technologies  has  changed  on  a
qualitative level value of resources placing on the top  position  intellect
and finances, which are more mobile nowadays. It has changed the process  of
cooperation  between  developed  and  developing   countries:   constructive
frontier of the last by the latter with the help of direct investments  into
the real sector has started to climb down to the destructive  frontier  with
the help of exemption of financial and intellectual resources.

      Understanding of realias and consequences of such  transformation  has
given birth to the theory of «dead countries»: under influence  of  the  new
information imperialism, the developing countries  become  actually  «dead»,
as they  irretrievably  loose  not  only  the  most  important  intellectual
resources for development but also the possibility  to  produce  them.  This
leaves nothing in store for them.

                    1.3.  Old technologies «depreciation»

      Irreversible lag of the developing countries is creating not  only  by
the reason  of  «wash»  from  them  of  the  most  valuable  under  the  new
conditions resources,  and  also  due  to  collapse  of  the  usefulness  of
traditional resources and technologies which  these  societies  dispose.  As
the most important result of each new level of development of  the  humanity
from  the  point  of  view  of  the  practical   politics   is   comparative
depreciation of all «old» technologies and products or  their  appliance  as
they are distributed.

      Depth of such depreciation will be in proportion to the  primitiveness
of  the  «old»  technologies  and  to  the  level  of   monopolization   and
competitiveness of the market of such  technology  products.  In  accordance
with this rule we have a depreciation  first  of  all  technologies  of  the
mineral industry because of distribution of  the  information  technologies.
First of  all  this  process  influences  oil,  world  market  of  which  is
liberalized in the most extent.

      And as the result of it we have a regular reduction of  its  price  in
the world market (in 1999 according to estimations to the level of  no  more
than 8 dollar per barrel) that is followed not  so  much  by  the  agreement
between the USA corporation and the Saudi Arabia  but  more  deeper  factor:
creation  of  new  information  technological  lifestyle   which   has   new
qualitative level. Such lifestyle has started depreciation of  the  previous
lifestyles by the fact of its appearance.

      That is why reduction of  prices  all  over  the  world  for  the  raw
materials  and  in  a  broader  sense  for  the  products  engaging   little
intellectual work will become a tendency deviation from which will  be  non-
significant fluctuations. In this sense the USA actively placing its not  so
much ecologically but intellectually «impure», i.e. too  simple  productions
has got a maximal guard from negative consequences of  their  own  technical

                                *     *     *

      Summing up the above said we may make a list of consequences  for  new
technologies development:

    . Exacerbation and acquisition of final – at the same time  keeping  the
      existing tendencies – compelling character between:

      v developed and the rest countries;

      v creating new technological principles by  the  developed  countries
        (it is possible that we should use the term «the most  developed  /
        advanced countries») and the rest developed countries;

    . Insulation, which take place in all countries, of  people  engaged  in
      information technologies into internal  «information  community»,  its
      concentration in  the  territory  of  the  developed  countries;  slow
      concentration of the «information community» of the world and together
      with it concentration of the world progress in  the  «most  developed»

    . progress termination or  its  abrupt  slowdown  (at  least  technical)
      beyond the developed countries; social and  financial  degradation  of
      the developing countries;

    . reduction of the number of developed and the most developed  countries
      because of hard competition.

                        XXVI. Several consequences of
                            markets globalization

      2.1.  Competition globalization – monopolies globalization

      The process of distribution of information technologies is  influenced
by the  process  of  globalization  which  is  created  by  the  process  of
distribution of information technologies but which has  the  same  level  of
importance. Formation of the united world markets at least in the  financial
sphere and gradual integration of the global markets of different  financial
instruments into united world market includes into the agenda  the  question
referring to creation of the global monopolies.

      The reason of it is very simple: it is impossible to divide  a  single

      Well-known examples of market division had either quite a short period
of existence, as compared with the  term  of  existence  of  the  domination
product, or were based on objective backsets. That made access to a part  of
competitors to any  principally  significant  element  of  the  market  more

      Information technologies reducing transaction expenses to minimum  and
also an «entrance  fee»  to  the  global  financial  markets  destroy  these
backsets, eliminating  any  possibilities  for  any  stable  part  of  these
markets. Term of existence of the dominating  product  –  information  –  is
going down to zero that makes practically impossible even temporal  division
of these markets.

      In the result  of  it  creation  of  global  monopolies  has  got  two
simultaneous directions:

      Formation of global monopolies  in  the  global  markets  of  separate
financial instruments;

      Formation of the united global monopoly in the result  of  integration
of the said markets  (reduction  of  «price  for  transformation»  from  one
market to another down to a very small level).

      The American government plays the role of the latter  monopoly  as  it
has very close  contacts  with  the  based  in  the  territory  of  the  USA
transnational corporations including financial most  of  which  due  to  the
specifics of their activity do not need any organizational formation.

      The matter may have the following form: the world policy will recently
terminates its existence on the state level, transforming, on one  part,  to
the national level of global groups of capitals and technologies and on  the
other part – to  the  internal  level  of  political  life  of  the  country
controlling over the major part of these capitals and technologies.

      (In 1997 during  the  progress  of  the  proamerican  «team  of  young
reformers», the Russian lobbyists were greatly amazed at  finding  out  that
the sphere of  the  most  effective  lobbying  of  several  matters  in  the
internal Russian politics had transformed from the  Governmental  level  and
the level of the President's Administration to the  level  of  the  Congress
and the USA  administration.  In  the  USSR  all  matters  having  principal
importance referring to development of the republics or  regions  should  be
solved  not  by  their  own  authorities  but  by  the   curators   of   the
corresponding directions in  Moscow  –  in  the  Central  Committee  of  the
Communist Party of the Soviet Union and in the Council of Ministers.)

      2.2.  «Euro»: suppression of threat and destructive egoism

      In 1999 the rest tow parts of the process  of  monopoly  globalization
will elapse against the most important event of the century  –  commencement
of the process for  euro  integration.  Commencement  of  European  currency
integration will be the first real  after  establishment  in  the  beginning
nineties of the total world financial crisis attempt which  has  chances  to
become a success to depth regional integration up to the  level  which  will
dominate over global integration.

      Integration of «euro» will reduce foreign currency reserves of banking
systems of the world (firstly of Europe) and will release from them a  great
amount of dollars (only in China about tens milliards).

      Besides, settlements at European market of energy carriers are made in
dollars. Transformation  of  these  settlements  into  euro  will  be  after
integration of the latter simply a matter of time, let it even be long,  but
it will release several tens of milliard dollars.

      At last purchasing capacity of the maximum European  banknote  in  500
euros will be higher of the purchasing capacity of the maximum  banknote  of
the USA denominated in 100 dollars. It will transfer  into  euro  the  major
part of the large sums in cash in Europe, and not only in the  countries  of
the currency union but also in the neighboring countries,  -  also  tens  of
milliard dollars.

      Apparent non-solicitude of the «Eurozone» leaders  of  the  future  of
such dollars carries an extremely destructive character  of  inactivity  not
only for the USA  but  also  for  the  rest  of  the  world.  Actually  this
inactivity  provokes  the  USA  to  strengthen  the   process   of   further
destabilization of the financial system of the world.

      European dollars  and  China  dollars  should  be  absorbed  by  other
countries not to destabilize the USA on their coming back  to  the  country.
Such absorbation of the world reserve currency to  a  great  extent  happens
only under the conditions of a  very  deep  economic  destabilization.  Such
extent may be only compared with its  release  under  the  process  of  euro

      Thus, egoistic indifference of Europeans to welfare of the main global
competitor – the USA – in a strategic  plan  provokes  the  latter  to  make
destructive steps in respect of not only  the  eurozone  economic  power  of
which is protected from a short-term influence but in respect of  the  third
parties, i.e. countries which are less stable and due to this  reason  these
countries are a favorable potential recipient of the releasing dollars.

      The most threatened regions are the Latin America (first of all it  is
Brazil) and several countries of the South-Eastern Asia and may be China.

   2.3.  Global financial competition outlook: technical progress slowdown

      Attempt to carry out sterilization of dollars through  disorganization
of national economic system can not be the decision for a  problem  even  if
such method allows to postpone the decision of the problem  despite  of  its
being very expensive.

      There are two final and real variants to solve the problem:

      First – carrying out of long-term investments of the releasing dollars
into large projects in the zones of mutual influence of the USA  and  Europe
(for example: reconstruction of the Transsib aimed at establishment  of  the
united  transport  European-Asian  line  «London-Tokio»).  As  Russia  still
remains under political influence of the USA and  under  economic  influence
of Europe, sterilization of the extra dollars of the world in the  territory
of Russia will be for the USA an exchange of  a  part  of  its  geopolitical
influence to the short-term and medium-term economic safety.

      This variant demands for not only constructive approach to the problem
(for example: it corresponds to the demands of the  overheating  economy  of
Japan) but also consent of the Russian society for its deep  healthening  or
at least readiness for it.

      The second variant – taking a pause which may be gained  after  dollar
runoff  to  the  destabilizing  «second  economics»   of   the   world   for
organization of the head-on competitive collision with the  eurozone,  first
premonition of which could be found with non-united European economy in  the
September, 1992, and with only starting its trip to integration  economy  of
the South-Eastern Asia in the second half of the 1997 year.

      This scheme allows the USA to take the strategic initiative  and  make
its own choice of time, sphere and the character  for  this  collision  that
taking into consideration factor of abruptness gives the USA an advantage.

      At static  consideration  of  outlook  for  such  collision  based  on
comparison of  the  already  existing  resources,  Europe  has  advantageous
chances. But as compared on the  point  of  view  of  dynamics  taking  into
consideration level of expenses, increasing role of newest technologies  and
actually «natural» (after disintegration of the USSR) monopoly  of  the  USA
on  holding  its  holding  and  development  performed  with   taking   into
consideration cardinal differences of the American and European  bureaucracy
(the first one – creates, the second – exists) makes us to make  our  choice
in favor of the USA if we have a long-term outlook for future.

      Influence of  «dynamic»  factors  of  the  technological  quality  and
bureaucracy on the modern competition may be indirectly seen  comparison  of
losses borne by European and American capitals in Russia  and  South-Eastern
Asia: in both cases losses of  Europeans  were  greater  than  that  of  the
Americans from all points of view. Besides, if in the USA losses were  borne
only by structures, which  do  not  make  the  main  part  of  the  national
economy, with high risk possibility, but in Europe – losses  were  borne  by
the banks making the basic part of its banking system.

      There is no reason to consider that in the nearest years proportion of
effectiveness  of  two  financial  and  governmental  systems  will   change

      Besides, the USA will always be able to carry  out  discrimination  in
this or that form of at least a cash part of dollars which are  outside  the
USA. It may be performed for example  under  the  slogan  of  struggle  with
international crime: first of all, this thesis is a  standard  method  using
by the USA in its international competitiveness, and  then  –  it  is  true:
turnover of the major part of the US dollars outside the  territory  of  the
USA in this or that form is connected with law  violation,  and,  thus,  the
USA progress is based to a certain extent  on  lurking  stimulation  of  the
criminal activity outside the USA.

      Of cause, such discrimination will abruptly limit the  most  important
financial part of the economic power of the USA – usage  of  their  national
currency as an international reserve currency and that  is  why  it  may  be
used only as «the last means».

      But in any case not depending on the result of  the  global  financial
confrontation between the USA and European Currency Union it  will  lead  to
the unfavorable event for the  humanity:  cardinal  slowdown  of  the  China
economic development which may be followed by its  destabilization,  regress
and even disintegration.

      China mainly develops as an export oriented  country  integrated  into
the markets  of  Europe  and  the  USA.  Collision  will  reduce  purchasing
capacity of the outgoing party and correspondingly will  reduce  its  import
including from China. And this collision  won’t  depend  on  the  result  of
collision between Europe and the USA.

      China will hardly bear such an abrupt reduction in its  export,  which
will be the catalyst of all its internal  problems,  which  are  now  in  an
inchoative stage. Destabilization of China will be such an event  that  will
be able up to 2015 year set the whole world economy  in  chaos  (except  the
winner: the USA or the eurozone).

      Truly speaking, victory of the  latter  will  be  a  Pyrrhic  victory:
leaving behind the competitors and together with them the whole world for  a
generation (of people and main technologies), it will loose  the  main  sale
markets for its products that will slowdown its own development.

      In that case we will have a losing or at  least  conservation  of  the
most advanced technologies: in the event of eurozone victory  –  because  it
does not know how to create them, and in the event  of  the  USA  victory  –
because of abrupt reduction of the sale markets  and  realization  of  these
technologies,  that  will  weaken  in  cardinal  way  stimulus   for   their
development an will reduce resources engaged for such purposes.

      Thus, transformation of disagreement between the eurozone and the  USA
connected with integration of euro and release of the extra dollars  to  the
level of negative  competition  will  be  followed  by  the  possibility  of
slowdown of the development of the whole mankind.

               III.  Global regulation for global competition

            3.1.  What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»?

      Possibility of slowdown of the development of general human  technical
progress as it was shown in the previous paragraph is a minor point  of  the
general rule: development may have only  total  character.  Any  attempt  to
force back the competitors disrupt the development  making it  narrower  and
poor and increasing the level of monopolization through  reduction  of  sale
markets to the products of  the  winner,  and  leads,  thus,  to  the  total
slowdown of the development and stagnation.

      It is quite evident: for  the  mankind  itself  problems  of  its  own
development has already become very difficult according to  our  traditional
understanding. National states  come  across  with  such  thing  that  their
«habitat» is spontaneously  formed  by  overnational  structures  (including
overnational   structures   holding   meta-technologies),    which,    thus,
predetermine their actions and lead the mankind to  serious  cataclysms  and
abrupt slowdown of the development due to their egoistic motives.

      If we do not want to allow the described consequences it is  necessary
to  establish  that  very  international  economic  regulation   which   was
mentioned in practical terms after Lenin for the first  time  by  G.  Soros:
«economic UNO», which differs from the already  existing  political  economy
with  qualitatively  smaller  level  of   bureaucratization   as   financial
processes  have  qualitative  difference  as  they  are   more   quick   and
correspondingly  demand   for   their   regulation   quicker   actions   and
effectiveness in general than that of the political processes.

      Existing intellectual and  consulting  «stages»  of  global  financial
groups notwithstanding to the dominating influence on them of the  USA,  may
become an embryo of such organization. The main trace of character for  such
organization providing as in the case with UNO  principal  capability  shall
become the general understanding of reality of mutual destruction  enforcing
the strongest partners to search for the compromise with more weak  partners
and even vesting them with right of veto in respect of  strategic  and  more
complicated matters.

               3.2.  New generation of TNC «the wind of Gods»

      The  main  task  of  the  organization   aimed   at   performance   of
international economic regulation is the  regulation  of  the  transnational
monopoly activity. Besides it is very important to understand that  the  old
TNC are not the owner of the world any longer. The global financial  groups,
development of common and meta-technologies replace them. These  groups  are
very often non-formalized (that makes their  regulation  more  complicated),
but  their  effectiveness,  mobility  and  many-sidedness  exceed   analogue
qualities of the traditional TNC.

      For better understanding of the actual problem it will  be  enough  to
note that coincided with increase of  activity  transformation  in  1993  of
researchers performed by transnational corporations from  the  special  body
of the UNO (UNCTC) which in general was able to meet the task, to the  lower
level – the department of the UNCTC, which considers development of the  TNC
mainly from the departmental positions of this organization (in  respect  of
trade and development) and due to institutional reasons  in  general  cannot
cope with complex observance and analysis of their activity.

      This is the first sign of finding by this or that group of the crucial
influence:  termination  of  unpleasant  for  this  group  (as   a   minimum
independent, and  in  case  of  absence  in  demand  in  advertising  –  any
external) researches of this group.

      As we can see it in the first chapter, the technological leader of the
mankind – Mr. Gates – is only going to provide information  transparency  of
other countries – but overnational monopolies influencing the world  greatly
leave him behind for several years preventively liquidating globally even  a
possibility of primitive statistical research of the development.

                      3.3.  Value of global regulation

      Increase of influence of the overnational monopolies may reproduce the
situation of the end of twenties and thirties of this century. At that  time
domination of private monopolies in the  economies  of  the  most  developed
countries  (including  to  certain  extent  the  USSR)  had  lead  to  their
stagnation and to the Great Depression. There were formed  on  the  national
levels mechanisms of state control over monopolies  in  the  course  of  the
struggle with the Great Depression, but it was defeated only in  the  course
of preparation for World War II.

      Taking into consideration these events but from the point of  view  of
power, we should pay our attention to  very  significant  drawbacks  of  the
purely economic approach. Thus, we got used to consider the immediate  cause
of the Great Depression the mistake made  by  the  American  government:  in
that very moment when from the economic point of view it  was  necessary  to
alleviate financial policy  it  was  otherwise  cardinal  toughen  that  was
followed by crash on the stock exchange and economic catastrophe.

      But the fact which from the economic point  of  view  was  inexcusable
mistake, from the political point of view it was the only  way  out.  As  in
those days America had to solve the main and the  only  question  of  power.
Question of  the  economic  welfare  was  of  a  minor  importance  for  any
practical politician.

      When there is a threat to economic conjuncture there was  a  question:
who should  govern  the  country  –  state  under  conditions  of  democracy
oriented in general to the interests of  the  society,  or  several  private
monopolies («oligarchies») oriented to their  own  interests  which  are  in
contradiction to the social interests.

      And  for  the  purpose  of  restoration  of  its  dominating  position
partially lost after creation  and  heyday  of  private  monopolies  in  the
twenties, the American  government  without  any  doubt  and  at  once  with
determination which is very typical for Mr. Chubais (Russian reformer  known
for his extreme and  drastic  measures  aimed  at  improvement  of  economic
situation in Russia – annotation of  the  translator)  plunged  the  country
into unknown in the history of mankind catastrophes which  destroyed  almost
the half of national economy and left a scar in the soul of  every  American
survived in these catastrophes.

      I would like also to underline two 60 years old events  important  for
better understanding of the current situation.

      First of all, this dreadful resolution was right from  the  historical
point of view, as private monopolies due to objective  reasons  were  unable
to perform necessary functions of the state, and their domination  could  be
followed by greater catastrophe for the  society,  though  it  could  happen
later (that is quite evidently shown on the example with Russia  of  1995  –
1998 years).

      Secondly, it was a spontaneous resolution  adopted  on  the  level  of
collective conscious (or even «collective unconscious»)  of  the  state  and
the society. There are not proves for the fact that the political aspect  of
resolution was established by several even holding  posts  of  a  very  high
rank participants of the event. Though it is evident that they fully  sensed
the political aspect of the events described would never  want  to  disclose

      It is possible that in the nearest future  the mankind will have to go
through  spontaneous  and  non-understanding   by   several   contemporaries
resolution of such a question referring to power (taking into  consideration
accelerating course of progress) on the level of  world  economy  and  world
policy. It is possible that it will be as difficult for developed  economics
as it was difficult for industrial and financial centers of the USA  in  the
end of twenties (that is indirectly proved by our forecast  on  slowdown  of
technical progress of the mankind), and it  will  be  also  destructive  for
less  developed  countries  as  it  was   destructive   for   the   American
agricultural godforsaken regions of that period of time.

      It is also possible that «economic UNO» which was spoken above will be
created as a mechanism to control over overnational corporations and  mainly
to control over global financial groups. And as the  result  it  may  become
the power of the world.

      As for the external event  referring  to  our  economic  system  (i.e.
referring to the whole mankind) which will find out the way from  depression
resulting after crisis, this event will also leave no  time  for  delay  and
compromise and it will mobilize the mankind as World War II did it.  And  it
is impossible to foresee such event even with the lowest positive degree  of

      We cannot but hope the leaders of the  mankind  (to  which  we  cannot
refer our country) like 60 years ago will be the first to see it and  notify
the other with word of mouth of their strategist and city mad people.

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