Îáùàÿ òåîðèÿ ãëîáàëèçàöèè
Mikhail Delyagin, Doctor of Economics
Public director of Globalization Problem Institute
General theory of globalization
«World for Russia:
the way we need it and what we can do with it»
(Analytical report open part in brief)
|Resume |2 |
|I. Information technologies expansion |3 |
| On difference significance in the technological time | |
|speed | |
|1.2. New resources for new technologies |9 |
|1.3. Old technologies «depreciation» |10 |
|II. Several consequences of markets globalization |12 |
|2.1. Competition globalization – monopolies globalization |12 |
|2.2. «Euro»: suppression of threat and destructive egoism |13 |
|!2.3. Financial competition |14 |
| Technological process slowdown | |
|III. Global regulation for global competition |17 |
|3.1. What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»? |17 |
|3.3. Value of global regulation |18 |
About the author in brief
Delyagin, Mikhail Gennadjevich, born in 1968, Doctor of Economics.
From 1990 till 1993 – expert of the B. Eltsyn Group of Experts, since
1994 – leading analyst of the President of Russia Analytic Department,
since 1996 – referent of the President of Russia assistant. Since March
1997 – advisor of the vice-prime-minister – Minister of Internals, since
June 1997 – advisor of the first vice-prime-minister Mr. B. Nemtsov. On his
leaving the government one day prior to August 17th, he established a
Globalization Problem Institute. In the beginning of October 1998 after new
government under Mr. Primakov had started its work, he was restored at the
He has more than 300 publications (including in the USA, Germany,
France, China, India, Egypt etc.), 4 monographs, with the latest - «Economy
of non-payments» was republished for three times since 1996 till 1997.
1. Information technologies development has brought to:
. «meta-technologies» creation, application of which makes it impossible
for the party which applies such technologies to compete with the
developers of these technologies;
. reorientation of technologies from necessary material objects
formation to necessary type of conscious and culture formation
(transformation from high-tech to high-hume);
. acceleration of information technologies development to such extent
that «short», theoretical investments are productive for the most
advanced information technologies;
. approximate depreciation of traditional technologies;
. Information society creation in which money plays second role as
compared with technologies.
7. Major humanity technological development prospects:
. Exacerbation and compelling character acquisition by divultion between
developed and backward countries, and also between developed countries
and creating new technologies and the rest developed countries;
. Insulation of people engaged in information technologies into internal
«information community», its concentration in the territory of the
developed countries; slow concentration of the «information community»
of the world and together with it concentration of the world progress
in the «most developed» countries;
. progress termination beyond the developed countries; social and
financial degradation of the developing countries;
. Possible abrupt slowdown of the progress in the result of global
financial crises and destructive competition between the USA and
European Currency Union.
12. Global monopolies formation is being performed:
. At global markets of separate financial instruments;
. In the course of these markets integration process (reduction of the
«transformation value» among them to negligible level) as information
technologies advance – in the form of the united global monopoly.
These processes will demand in the nearest future creation of the
overnational regulation mechanism for global monopolies, which will be of
more malaise character.
| The whole development of the humanity including in the field of |
|economics is determined nowadays and will be determined in the |
|nearest decade by progress to the new qualitative level with two |
|fundamental processes simultaneously: new technologies development, |
|information technologies primarily, and based on it quick competition|
|globalization, primarily in the financial markets. |
!lvl0I. Information technologies expansion
1.1. Information technologies: money recedes into the background
Technological development has brought in the middle nineties to actual
creation by the most advanced part of the humanity that very «information
community» which has been widely discussed for the last decades and so that
no one takes the matter seriously.
Realities of its functioning, casual connections and competitive
potential by the reason of intellectual and technological gap can be hardly
perceivable by those who are beyond of that process.
The most important way of showing this qualitative technological
breakthrough which has lead to creation of the information society and at
the same time one of its major parts is creation and quick distribution of
the so-called «meta-technologies».
Specifics of this type of technologies lies in that that the fact of
thier implementation makes for the party which uses such technologies
principially impossible to compete with the developer of these technologies
in a serious level. This may be called a price for access to the
effectiveness of a higher level which is provided by such technologies and
which might be found in dealer and licensed systems. Modern advanced
technologies in direct or indirect form place the user in the position of a
The most telling examples of meta-technologies are:
. Network computer: distribution of its memory in the net provides
the developer with the whole information of the user and allows the
developer to interfere into activity of the latter or even to
control it (external control principle of the plugged in computer
has bee already realized);
. Modern communication technologies which allow to wiretap all
telephone messages all over the world; in the nearest future
computer processing of the whole volume of these messages and also
wiretap of all messages in the Internet will be possible;
. Different organization technologies; their main subgroups:
* Control technologies, including corporation activity
organization: oriented to culture and value system of the country
the developer, such technologies reduce competitiveness of the
corporations which represent other cultures; we should also note
that in general distribution within a society of a foreign types
of culture which do not integrate with the culture of the society
and as the result the culture which not only enriches it but
remains detached from it, makes competitiveness of this society
* Formation of the mass conscious technology: permanent adaptation
of the latter to the forms of influence arouses objective
necessity in permanent renovation of the forms; without renovated
technologies which at first appear in the leading country and
then are distributed in other countries mass conscious of the
society using technologies which influence it will get out of
hand of the state.
Nowadays the said technologies have become predominating for their
being the most productive. These technologies having sweepingly spread for
the last years have already become a technological component of the
information society: if we speak about it from the technological point of
view we possibly half-consciously and non knowing about their peculiarities
we intend first of all meta-technologies.
It is quite natural, that conscious transformation from creation of
new technologies to their distribution and which is followed by creation of
information society was expressed in the clearest form by the leader of
this process Mr. W. Gates. He pointed out that the main factor for
information technologies development as compared with the previous of 1997
year, lays not in their upgrading but in complex usage of already existing
technical means for «information transparency» of all countries —
«transparency» as far as it can be understood quiet homogeneous for the
countries creating meta-technologies and aiming at protection of their
global competitive advantages.
But significance of information technology distribution is not limited
by creation of meta-technologies and safe provision of psychological,
intellectual and technological leadership of their creators. Besides
provision of global information transparency the most important part of
information technologies is the possibility (in 1999 it is still potential)
for deep and quite free reconstruction of mass conscious.
The point is that unlike traditional «material» technologies the
product of which are the goods, the product of information technologies
nolens volens is a certain condition of the human conscious including mass
conscious. Moreover: the most significant part of information technologies
was primarily aimed at such reconstruction of human conscious taking it
into consideration as the major purpose for influence.
It is more effective to influence conscious than to influence the
material. Technologies connected with it have already received the name.
They are called «high-hume» versus «high-tech». In previous times
technologies were oriented to matter but nowadays they are reorienting to
the public conscience, public culture. Besides their high productivity,
«high-hume» technologies differ with high changeability, i.e. maximum speed
of making progress.
The pioneers of their exploration — the USA — engage the most mobile
and in correspondingly the most effective form of financial capital —
venture capital — to creation of the most effective type of information
technologies. Engagement of such capital to creation of the ordinary
technologies as it is may be shown by the experience of the developing
countries is impossible because of «slowness» of the non-information
technologies: performance of any project connected with such technologies
demand for larger time period than traditionally «short» venture capital is
ready to be invested.
In the result of it we observe destructive non-compliance of the speed
of the venture capital turnover and establishment of traditional
technologies. Wide-ranging investments of the venture capital are not
effective for the national economy because of the said factors: it leaves
without creating anything real and leaving after it only desolation.
But the speed of information technology development has a qualitative
higher rank than ordinary technologies. That is why information
technologies are the only type of technologies in respect of which «short»
venture capital has a quite normal productivity. Their technological cycle
is so small that it corresponds to the speed of the financial capital
That is why the American economy should not be afraid of «distending a
soap exchange bubble»: it looks like a soap bubble only from outside.
Actually the huge part of these venture investments is directed into the
information technologies and at expense of their accelerated tempo of their
development carries for their recipient quite normal productive but not
This is the principal advantage of the American economy over economics
of other countries of the world. This is the reason for its medium term
stability in the forthcoming global financial
|On difference significance in the technological time speed |
|Significance of the time factor in new conditions is evidently |
|demonstrated by the mass bankruptcy of computer firms in the USA. The|
|bankruptcy is followed by the fact that implementation of new |
|technological principles demands for such period of time that these |
|principles become outdated. |
|Thus, the company which directs a part of its resources from the |
|sphere of technological race to the practical realization of new |
|decisions reaches the slow scale of «technological time» and fails as|
|compared with its competitors which remain in the zone of «pure» |
|sphere of new ideas development in which the technological times |
|changes in a quicker way. |
But application of «high-hume» technologies is connected also with
danger. Thus, seeming easiness and impunity of conscious influence arouse
the most dangerous professional illness of the employees engaged in the
sphere of public relations – it! is the temptation to solve problems not in
the real way but with the help of the so-called «brainwashing» method or we
may use more exact German analogue of this term: ote Seelenmassage».
The first problem of «high-hume» is connected with it: on carrying
away by it the control system (of the state or of the corporation) starts
the process of self-hypnosis that makes it inadequate. It is principally
important: «high-hume» technologies are dangerous not only for the object
of their influence, but for their user as they also transform conscious of
The second problem: to reach the political result it will be enough
for the user of the «high-hume» technology to form necessary type of
conscious of no more than 20% of the population being the elite of the
society and influence on taking resolutions and being the example.
Efforts in this direction evidently draw the line between the elite
and general mass of population and create within the society internal
disagreements between the self-hypnosed elite and the rest population.
Moreover: the elite being apart from the population began to percept the
ideas, which correspond to its principles. In the result of it 80% of the
intellectual potential of the society is lost – while the
Thus, gradual appliance of information technologies in respect of the
elite class of the society is limited by the area of democratic borders of
the elite class itself and that is why it reduces the society potential. We
saw the example of the Russian reformers of 1992 — 1998 years, who could
run away from the population by application such advanced information
technologies to themselves to such extent as the communists could do for
seventy years of their domination.
In the result of it we have a paradox: more advanced informa6tion
society should be less flexible and adaptive and as a result less viable
but more stable in its confrontation with non-information society. Is not
it the reason for paradox viability of the authoritarian regimes in the end
of XX century?
It is possible that this phenomenon is an «implemented guarantee» from
the informational imperialism, from subordination of the entire world to
one the most informed country. And the total mortification of the conscious
of other countries with the help of information technologies is impossible
because of differences in cultural aspect which automatically defend
minimal intellectual and information sovereignty of each nation separately.
But it would be too naive to hope for it as the major resolution of the
forthcoming problems under the circumstances of gradual integration of
cultures into united culture for the whole world (On the first stage into
three major cultures — Christian, Islamic and Buddhistic).
Taking into consideration a private case of information war – «culture
aggression» (i.e. obtrusion of its own culture to the society the potential
of which it does not correspond) as an instrument of international
competition (applied only mainly in the inconscient way, in the order of
markets winning for sale — the carries of such culture), we should re-
estimate the role playing by traditions.
Traditions are the psychological protection from something new: it is
the attempt to live as if nothing has happened. In the conditions of
reconstruction of mass conscious of actual and probable competitors of the
tradition starts to act not like an ostrich, but it goes through
minimization of negative consequences in changes having «squatter» order:
attempt to cancel by ignoring of these charges or cancellation of their
major part. I.e. it is a spontaneous reflection of the information attack
by the information method.
* * *
The above said means that creation and distribution of meta-
technologies reduces significance of financial resources from the point of
view of competitiveness of the societies and corporations: if they have
been the main source of power earlier, now they become only its
consequence. Intellect has become the main source of the market power.
Intellect is embodied in organizational structures of the research and
market corporations creating meta-technologies and holding control over
Rephrasing Mr. M. Fridman we can say that money recedes into the
background after creation of the information society. The reason lies in
the following: that property right for the meta-technologies makes an
organically inalienable part of the holder and his intellect, with the help
of which these technologies have been created and are supported, according
to technological reasons.
Meta-technologies in a greater degree will transform in a «second
nature» making the borders and creating conditions for development of the
personality and the humanity in general. As such these technologies will
gradually exchange market relationship and property rights performing these
functions since the moment of money appearance.
1.2. New resources for new technologies
Disintegration of the USSR has given to the developed countries such a
financial and intellectual possibility that they were able to speed up
their development on the «lagan» of the disintegrated USSR (differences in
orientations and correspondingly outlook for Europe and the USA shows that
the first one has got finances and the latter – intellect). Thus, having
won in the cold war developed countries not only destroyed their global
antagonist as we have got used to consider but they managed to do more:
they have captured and used its resources which were truly speaking
dreadfully used (the socialism differed from the capitalism also in the
fact that on preparing the best in the world people resources it united
them into organizations in the worst way).
It has a principal importance that in the new information
postindustrial world the most important resources are first of all finances
and intellect, which may travel very easily from one territory to another,
but not the territory with fixed production and people.
That is why the appeal to the people from developed countries, who are
capable to organize system of government, had no sense in the nineties: new
major resources for development are not attached to a certain territory!
Nowadays the effective frontier consists not only in recovery of the
society within such a territory but otherwise in isolation within the
society with further exemption from its main part of healthy and
progressive elements, i.e. people – carriers of finances and intellect.
In such method of frontier the progress of the more developed
«frontiering» society goes at expense of degradation of the society on
frontier, and the scales of degradation of the society on destruction outgo
victory in culture and in progress of the more developed society. As
compared with traditional harmonic processes of development, development at
expense of a alien degradation has always the character of a «play with
Thus, distribution of information technologies has changed on a
qualitative level value of resources placing on the top position intellect
and finances, which are more mobile nowadays. It has changed the process of
cooperation between developed and developing countries: constructive
frontier of the last by the latter with the help of direct investments into
the real sector has started to climb down to the destructive frontier with
the help of exemption of financial and intellectual resources.
Understanding of realias and consequences of such transformation has
given birth to the theory of «dead countries»: under influence of the new
information imperialism, the developing countries become actually «dead»,
as they irretrievably loose not only the most important intellectual
resources for development but also the possibility to produce them. This
leaves nothing in store for them.
1.3. Old technologies «depreciation»
Irreversible lag of the developing countries is creating not only by
the reason of «wash» from them of the most valuable under the new
conditions resources, and also due to collapse of the usefulness of
traditional resources and technologies which these societies dispose. As
the most important result of each new level of development of the humanity
from the point of view of the practical politics is comparative
depreciation of all «old» technologies and products or their appliance as
they are distributed.
Depth of such depreciation will be in proportion to the primitiveness
of the «old» technologies and to the level of monopolization and
competitiveness of the market of such technology products. In accordance
with this rule we have a depreciation first of all technologies of the
mineral industry because of distribution of the information technologies.
First of all this process influences oil, world market of which is
liberalized in the most extent.
And as the result of it we have a regular reduction of its price in
the world market (in 1999 according to estimations to the level of no more
than 8 dollar per barrel) that is followed not so much by the agreement
between the USA corporation and the Saudi Arabia but more deeper factor:
creation of new information technological lifestyle which has new
qualitative level. Such lifestyle has started depreciation of the previous
lifestyles by the fact of its appearance.
That is why reduction of prices all over the world for the raw
materials and in a broader sense for the products engaging little
intellectual work will become a tendency deviation from which will be non-
significant fluctuations. In this sense the USA actively placing its not so
much ecologically but intellectually «impure», i.e. too simple productions
has got a maximal guard from negative consequences of their own technical
* * *
Summing up the above said we may make a list of consequences for new
. Exacerbation and acquisition of final – at the same time keeping the
existing tendencies – compelling character between:
v developed and the rest countries;
v creating new technological principles by the developed countries
(it is possible that we should use the term «the most developed /
advanced countries») and the rest developed countries;
. Insulation, which take place in all countries, of people engaged in
information technologies into internal «information community», its
concentration in the territory of the developed countries; slow
concentration of the «information community» of the world and together
with it concentration of the world progress in the «most developed»
. progress termination or its abrupt slowdown (at least technical)
beyond the developed countries; social and financial degradation of
the developing countries;
. reduction of the number of developed and the most developed countries
because of hard competition.
XXVI. Several consequences of
2.1. Competition globalization – monopolies globalization
The process of distribution of information technologies is influenced
by the process of globalization which is created by the process of
distribution of information technologies but which has the same level of
importance. Formation of the united world markets at least in the financial
sphere and gradual integration of the global markets of different financial
instruments into united world market includes into the agenda the question
referring to creation of the global monopolies.
The reason of it is very simple: it is impossible to divide a single
Well-known examples of market division had either quite a short period
of existence, as compared with the term of existence of the domination
product, or were based on objective backsets. That made access to a part of
competitors to any principally significant element of the market more
Information technologies reducing transaction expenses to minimum and
also an «entrance fee» to the global financial markets destroy these
backsets, eliminating any possibilities for any stable part of these
markets. Term of existence of the dominating product – information – is
going down to zero that makes practically impossible even temporal division
of these markets.
In the result of it creation of global monopolies has got two
Formation of global monopolies in the global markets of separate
Formation of the united global monopoly in the result of integration
of the said markets (reduction of «price for transformation» from one
market to another down to a very small level).
The American government plays the role of the latter monopoly as it
has very close contacts with the based in the territory of the USA
transnational corporations including financial most of which due to the
specifics of their activity do not need any organizational formation.
The matter may have the following form: the world policy will recently
terminates its existence on the state level, transforming, on one part, to
the national level of global groups of capitals and technologies and on the
other part – to the internal level of political life of the country
controlling over the major part of these capitals and technologies.
(In 1997 during the progress of the proamerican «team of young
reformers», the Russian lobbyists were greatly amazed at finding out that
the sphere of the most effective lobbying of several matters in the
internal Russian politics had transformed from the Governmental level and
the level of the President's Administration to the level of the Congress
and the USA administration. In the USSR all matters having principal
importance referring to development of the republics or regions should be
solved not by their own authorities but by the curators of the
corresponding directions in Moscow – in the Central Committee of the
Communist Party of the Soviet Union and in the Council of Ministers.)
2.2. «Euro»: suppression of threat and destructive egoism
In 1999 the rest tow parts of the process of monopoly globalization
will elapse against the most important event of the century – commencement
of the process for euro integration. Commencement of European currency
integration will be the first real after establishment in the beginning
nineties of the total world financial crisis attempt which has chances to
become a success to depth regional integration up to the level which will
dominate over global integration.
Integration of «euro» will reduce foreign currency reserves of banking
systems of the world (firstly of Europe) and will release from them a great
amount of dollars (only in China about tens milliards).
Besides, settlements at European market of energy carriers are made in
dollars. Transformation of these settlements into euro will be after
integration of the latter simply a matter of time, let it even be long, but
it will release several tens of milliard dollars.
At last purchasing capacity of the maximum European banknote in 500
euros will be higher of the purchasing capacity of the maximum banknote of
the USA denominated in 100 dollars. It will transfer into euro the major
part of the large sums in cash in Europe, and not only in the countries of
the currency union but also in the neighboring countries, - also tens of
Apparent non-solicitude of the «Eurozone» leaders of the future of
such dollars carries an extremely destructive character of inactivity not
only for the USA but also for the rest of the world. Actually this
inactivity provokes the USA to strengthen the process of further
destabilization of the financial system of the world.
European dollars and China dollars should be absorbed by other
countries not to destabilize the USA on their coming back to the country.
Such absorbation of the world reserve currency to a great extent happens
only under the conditions of a very deep economic destabilization. Such
extent may be only compared with its release under the process of euro
Thus, egoistic indifference of Europeans to welfare of the main global
competitor – the USA – in a strategic plan provokes the latter to make
destructive steps in respect of not only the eurozone economic power of
which is protected from a short-term influence but in respect of the third
parties, i.e. countries which are less stable and due to this reason these
countries are a favorable potential recipient of the releasing dollars.
The most threatened regions are the Latin America (first of all it is
Brazil) and several countries of the South-Eastern Asia and may be China.
2.3. Global financial competition outlook: technical progress slowdown
Attempt to carry out sterilization of dollars through disorganization
of national economic system can not be the decision for a problem even if
such method allows to postpone the decision of the problem despite of its
being very expensive.
There are two final and real variants to solve the problem:
First – carrying out of long-term investments of the releasing dollars
into large projects in the zones of mutual influence of the USA and Europe
(for example: reconstruction of the Transsib aimed at establishment of the
united transport European-Asian line «London-Tokio»). As Russia still
remains under political influence of the USA and under economic influence
of Europe, sterilization of the extra dollars of the world in the territory
of Russia will be for the USA an exchange of a part of its geopolitical
influence to the short-term and medium-term economic safety.
This variant demands for not only constructive approach to the problem
(for example: it corresponds to the demands of the overheating economy of
Japan) but also consent of the Russian society for its deep healthening or
at least readiness for it.
The second variant – taking a pause which may be gained after dollar
runoff to the destabilizing «second economics» of the world for
organization of the head-on competitive collision with the eurozone, first
premonition of which could be found with non-united European economy in the
September, 1992, and with only starting its trip to integration economy of
the South-Eastern Asia in the second half of the 1997 year.
This scheme allows the USA to take the strategic initiative and make
its own choice of time, sphere and the character for this collision that
taking into consideration factor of abruptness gives the USA an advantage.
At static consideration of outlook for such collision based on
comparison of the already existing resources, Europe has advantageous
chances. But as compared on the point of view of dynamics taking into
consideration level of expenses, increasing role of newest technologies and
actually «natural» (after disintegration of the USSR) monopoly of the USA
on holding its holding and development performed with taking into
consideration cardinal differences of the American and European bureaucracy
(the first one – creates, the second – exists) makes us to make our choice
in favor of the USA if we have a long-term outlook for future.
Influence of «dynamic» factors of the technological quality and
bureaucracy on the modern competition may be indirectly seen comparison of
losses borne by European and American capitals in Russia and South-Eastern
Asia: in both cases losses of Europeans were greater than that of the
Americans from all points of view. Besides, if in the USA losses were borne
only by structures, which do not make the main part of the national
economy, with high risk possibility, but in Europe – losses were borne by
the banks making the basic part of its banking system.
There is no reason to consider that in the nearest years proportion of
effectiveness of two financial and governmental systems will change
Besides, the USA will always be able to carry out discrimination in
this or that form of at least a cash part of dollars which are outside the
USA. It may be performed for example under the slogan of struggle with
international crime: first of all, this thesis is a standard method using
by the USA in its international competitiveness, and then – it is true:
turnover of the major part of the US dollars outside the territory of the
USA in this or that form is connected with law violation, and, thus, the
USA progress is based to a certain extent on lurking stimulation of the
criminal activity outside the USA.
Of cause, such discrimination will abruptly limit the most important
financial part of the economic power of the USA – usage of their national
currency as an international reserve currency and that is why it may be
used only as «the last means».
But in any case not depending on the result of the global financial
confrontation between the USA and European Currency Union it will lead to
the unfavorable event for the humanity: cardinal slowdown of the China
economic development which may be followed by its destabilization, regress
and even disintegration.
China mainly develops as an export oriented country integrated into
the markets of Europe and the USA. Collision will reduce purchasing
capacity of the outgoing party and correspondingly will reduce its import
including from China. And this collision won’t depend on the result of
collision between Europe and the USA.
China will hardly bear such an abrupt reduction in its export, which
will be the catalyst of all its internal problems, which are now in an
inchoative stage. Destabilization of China will be such an event that will
be able up to 2015 year set the whole world economy in chaos (except the
winner: the USA or the eurozone).
Truly speaking, victory of the latter will be a Pyrrhic victory:
leaving behind the competitors and together with them the whole world for a
generation (of people and main technologies), it will loose the main sale
markets for its products that will slowdown its own development.
In that case we will have a losing or at least conservation of the
most advanced technologies: in the event of eurozone victory – because it
does not know how to create them, and in the event of the USA victory –
because of abrupt reduction of the sale markets and realization of these
technologies, that will weaken in cardinal way stimulus for their
development an will reduce resources engaged for such purposes.
Thus, transformation of disagreement between the eurozone and the USA
connected with integration of euro and release of the extra dollars to the
level of negative competition will be followed by the possibility of
slowdown of the development of the whole mankind.
III. Global regulation for global competition
3.1. What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»?
Possibility of slowdown of the development of general human technical
progress as it was shown in the previous paragraph is a minor point of the
general rule: development may have only total character. Any attempt to
force back the competitors disrupt the development making it narrower and
poor and increasing the level of monopolization through reduction of sale
markets to the products of the winner, and leads, thus, to the total
slowdown of the development and stagnation.
It is quite evident: for the mankind itself problems of its own
development has already become very difficult according to our traditional
understanding. National states come across with such thing that their
«habitat» is spontaneously formed by overnational structures (including
overnational structures holding meta-technologies), which, thus,
predetermine their actions and lead the mankind to serious cataclysms and
abrupt slowdown of the development due to their egoistic motives.
If we do not want to allow the described consequences it is necessary
to establish that very international economic regulation which was
mentioned in practical terms after Lenin for the first time by G. Soros:
«economic UNO», which differs from the already existing political economy
with qualitatively smaller level of bureaucratization as financial
processes have qualitative difference as they are more quick and
correspondingly demand for their regulation quicker actions and
effectiveness in general than that of the political processes.
Existing intellectual and consulting «stages» of global financial
groups notwithstanding to the dominating influence on them of the USA, may
become an embryo of such organization. The main trace of character for such
organization providing as in the case with UNO principal capability shall
become the general understanding of reality of mutual destruction enforcing
the strongest partners to search for the compromise with more weak partners
and even vesting them with right of veto in respect of strategic and more
3.2. New generation of TNC «the wind of Gods»
The main task of the organization aimed at performance of
international economic regulation is the regulation of the transnational
monopoly activity. Besides it is very important to understand that the old
TNC are not the owner of the world any longer. The global financial groups,
development of common and meta-technologies replace them. These groups are
very often non-formalized (that makes their regulation more complicated),
but their effectiveness, mobility and many-sidedness exceed analogue
qualities of the traditional TNC.
For better understanding of the actual problem it will be enough to
note that coincided with increase of activity transformation in 1993 of
researchers performed by transnational corporations from the special body
of the UNO (UNCTC) which in general was able to meet the task, to the lower
level – the department of the UNCTC, which considers development of the TNC
mainly from the departmental positions of this organization (in respect of
trade and development) and due to institutional reasons in general cannot
cope with complex observance and analysis of their activity.
This is the first sign of finding by this or that group of the crucial
influence: termination of unpleasant for this group (as a minimum
independent, and in case of absence in demand in advertising – any
external) researches of this group.
As we can see it in the first chapter, the technological leader of the
mankind – Mr. Gates – is only going to provide information transparency of
other countries – but overnational monopolies influencing the world greatly
leave him behind for several years preventively liquidating globally even a
possibility of primitive statistical research of the development.
3.3. Value of global regulation
Increase of influence of the overnational monopolies may reproduce the
situation of the end of twenties and thirties of this century. At that time
domination of private monopolies in the economies of the most developed
countries (including to certain extent the USSR) had lead to their
stagnation and to the Great Depression. There were formed on the national
levels mechanisms of state control over monopolies in the course of the
struggle with the Great Depression, but it was defeated only in the course
of preparation for World War II.
Taking into consideration these events but from the point of view of
power, we should pay our attention to very significant drawbacks of the
purely economic approach. Thus, we got used to consider the immediate cause
of the Great Depression the mistake made by the American government: in
that very moment when from the economic point of view it was necessary to
alleviate financial policy it was otherwise cardinal toughen that was
followed by crash on the stock exchange and economic catastrophe.
But the fact which from the economic point of view was inexcusable
mistake, from the political point of view it was the only way out. As in
those days America had to solve the main and the only question of power.
Question of the economic welfare was of a minor importance for any
When there is a threat to economic conjuncture there was a question:
who should govern the country – state under conditions of democracy
oriented in general to the interests of the society, or several private
monopolies («oligarchies») oriented to their own interests which are in
contradiction to the social interests.
And for the purpose of restoration of its dominating position
partially lost after creation and heyday of private monopolies in the
twenties, the American government without any doubt and at once with
determination which is very typical for Mr. Chubais (Russian reformer known
for his extreme and drastic measures aimed at improvement of economic
situation in Russia – annotation of the translator) plunged the country
into unknown in the history of mankind catastrophes which destroyed almost
the half of national economy and left a scar in the soul of every American
survived in these catastrophes.
I would like also to underline two 60 years old events important for
better understanding of the current situation.
First of all, this dreadful resolution was right from the historical
point of view, as private monopolies due to objective reasons were unable
to perform necessary functions of the state, and their domination could be
followed by greater catastrophe for the society, though it could happen
later (that is quite evidently shown on the example with Russia of 1995 –
Secondly, it was a spontaneous resolution adopted on the level of
collective conscious (or even «collective unconscious») of the state and
the society. There are not proves for the fact that the political aspect of
resolution was established by several even holding posts of a very high
rank participants of the event. Though it is evident that they fully sensed
the political aspect of the events described would never want to disclose
It is possible that in the nearest future the mankind will have to go
through spontaneous and non-understanding by several contemporaries
resolution of such a question referring to power (taking into consideration
accelerating course of progress) on the level of world economy and world
policy. It is possible that it will be as difficult for developed economics
as it was difficult for industrial and financial centers of the USA in the
end of twenties (that is indirectly proved by our forecast on slowdown of
technical progress of the mankind), and it will be also destructive for
less developed countries as it was destructive for the American
agricultural godforsaken regions of that period of time.
It is also possible that «economic UNO» which was spoken above will be
created as a mechanism to control over overnational corporations and mainly
to control over global financial groups. And as the result it may become
the power of the world.
As for the external event referring to our economic system (i.e.
referring to the whole mankind) which will find out the way from depression
resulting after crisis, this event will also leave no time for delay and
compromise and it will mobilize the mankind as World War II did it. And it
is impossible to foresee such event even with the lowest positive degree of
We cannot but hope the leaders of the mankind (to which we cannot
refer our country) like 60 years ago will be the first to see it and notify
the other with word of mouth of their strategist and city mad people.