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                               :        ..   304755440

                                                   ..    017533530



                                 


                                                            1.          
............................................................................
                                                                     ...   1
                                                          1.1     
         ..............................................................    1
                                                   1.2      
                        ....................................................
                                                  1.3      
                          ..................................................
                                                       1.4     
                 ...........................................................



                                                              1.        

                                                        1.1       

                   
                                                              
        " 1995  INTERNATIONAL     FINANCIAL   STATISTICS      YEARBOOK     "
                                                                    : 
                                                                    
                                                                  
                                                                  

                   
                                                   .

                                                1.2        

                                        :
                   (    ,    ,   ,  IM = f (

                .     
                                        :
                                         D1     -       
          2   D-             
                                                                     
             .          1990    
                                                                  .
                        
 .               
                                           .


                                                      :


             RM  =  f  ( RR  , RY  ,  RE  ,  INF  , D1  , D2  )


                                                1.3        

                                RM  -      (     )
                    RE   -         (     "  )
                                         RR   -      (  - %  )
                                     INF  -       (  %    )
                             RY   -       (      )
                        D1    -             1974 -  1977
                                  2D    -       "   " .


                                                                       :
[pic]
[pic]
[pic]

[pic]
[pic]

[pic]

[pic]


                                                       1.4      

                        .   , 
                                           .
                         . 
  , "        ,          
                               ,        .
                       .   ,
                                             .
                    . 
                         .
                     (  )       
                                                     .
                               
       .                 3    
                                         .
                            "
    " .              
           .      
                    
                                                       .

                                                         2.      

                                                            2.1    

                                                              :

[pic]

                                                 :

                                                         1.[pic]  [pic][pic]

                                                                 2.    [pic]


                                                       :

[pic]

                                     (  '   ) :

  RM.  =  5.990127 -  1.1724756  *  RE  + 1.9601755 * RR + 1.5643704 * INF+
               +  0.3055253 * RY - 9. 8921502 * D1 - 8.3802476 * D2

                                 "   :  0.956625

                                                           2.2    

        :         95%  .   a = 0.05.

                       -    F .

[pic]

                                                    :  0H   :


                                    [pic]
                                                                       :
            c   -       (  )    
                                                                .
                                          n -    ( '  ) .
                                             d  -     .
                                 [pic]  -       

                               [pic] -        .

                             n=33  , d = 7 ,a= 0.05  ,  c =  6
                                           "     (  '  )
                                    [pic]

     95%     0H  ,       .

                                                   3.       

                                                   3.1      

                    
                 
                      95%   .

                                               T   .

                                    [pic]
                                                  :  0H   :

                                    [pic]



        T           
                                          .
          '        ""     .   
                                                                C .
                                    [pic]

[pic]

        H0,      [pic] ()    ,
                                         -     .

                .        :

                                    [pic]

                                                          :

                                    [pic]
    "    0.9564 .     .  
               .      
                                                              .
               b2   - T         .

                                    [pic]

                                      H0  "   b2 .

                                                  :

                                    [pic]
                                                              :

    RM=-0.7966953 RE+0.1556901 INF+0.3503278 RY-7.3703343 D1-8.9045264 D2

                                                       :
[pic]

     0H  .              b0      - 0  
     .           ,
                        ""      .

                                                          :

[pic]

     .      T          .

                                                              *    b1 :
          [pic]
                                          0H -  .

                                                               *   b4 :
[pic]
                                           0H     .

                                                               *   b5 :
      [pic]
                                                     0H -  .
                                                               *   b6 :
[pic]
                                                       .

                          
     95% .        .       
                       1961-1993   :

                                    [pic]

                                                               :

                                    [pic]

                                          1961-1993 :

          RM= -0.7695981 RE+0.3521087 RY-7.1427263 D1-8.7903369 D2

                                4.          .

                                                    4.1      
                  .
        ,        
    .           .  
     T             .  
            .     
   .
                  " "  .    
                     0.6
.         .       
            .      
   .
         '         :
rRE,RY  = -0.9143375
rRR,INF = -0.8841962
        0.6 .           
         RE - RY    RR  -
INF .               (    
)     .

   4.2      
             :              [pic]
        -       
.     .           :
 ,        .      ,
    .  -.
             .      :
                 )       
                 )         ""
,                 
  .      '                             
                 .      
    .
                      
  :             [pic].         "".    
  .    RY       "     
.      '    .      :
            [pic]
    "   T :
[pic]
   -   0H     b0    . 
                                      :      RY .
                                  :       [pic]
                                            :           [pic]
                                             "   T :
                                                     - b  ():
[pic]
       0H .         95%     
                                                  .
                                       - b    :          [pic]

                                    [pic]

       0H       ,         
                                                                .
          "   RE.      '     "  -"2-TAIL
   SIG." -"T-STAT.".   -RE       
                                                            - RE .

       :             
                      .      .

                                                          4.3      

                                        :

                                                                       [pic]

          t        - t-1   
         .       (
             ).         .
                                           :
[pic]
                                   DURBIN-WATSON  .
                                    :

                      :                                    [pic]
                          0H    :                          dL  > D.W.
                                 :                  dL < D.W.4- D.W.
                               :                  dL <4- D.W.
                   0H ,        .
         :          ,   
                    ,      .

                                                                5      

                                           5.1   .   .
                                  
[pic]
         .    "     
           .    
            RE -RY   
                                                                        .
                            
                                  .

   *    RE -         - -0.7695981       
                           

      *    RY -        -  0.3521087  ,   
              ,           .

   *    1D -          -  1974-1977.      
              .            

 *    2D -       "  "    1990-1993  .       
                  ""   
      .          8.79    .

                                                        5.2     
                               
              .           
                0.3521087   .   
                         
                                      .


" "