Most modern problems have become global in nature, they have become ubiquitous, interconnected and disturbing to all people, and the possibilities for solving them are related to planetary actions. The following problems can be called global:

1) an impending environmental crisis, disaster associated with environmental pollution, depletion of mineral resources, the appearance of ozone holes, the greenhouse effect, deforestation, acid precipitation, etc.;

2) a demographic crisis that can lead to overpopulation of the planet;

3) the economic crisis, which consists of an ever-increasing gap between rich and poor sections of the population and rich and poor countries;

4) military danger and the danger of terrorism, etc.

Global problems attracted the attention of scientists in the 60s and 70s. XX century, when the Club of Rome was created - an informal organization of scientists who were the first to apply the method of mathematical modeling to the study of socio-ecological processes. Reports to the Club of Rome, presenting various scenarios for world development, laid the foundation for futurology and global studies. The president of the Club of Rome was a major Italian businessman and outstanding humanist Aurelio Peccei, who decided to build predictive models using the best computers of that time.

In 1968, he gathered reputable researchers, called this meeting the Club of Rome and appealed to sponsors to fund the research. The research program was developed in the book “World Dynamics” by the American economist J. Forrester, who is considered the founder of global forecasting based on system analysis. It is his merit that he attempted to use mathematical methods and computers to create a version of a model of economic development of society, taking into account two important factors - population size and environmental pollution. The first report to the Club of Rome was entitled “The Limits to Growth.” A dynamic model of the world was built, which included population, investment, land space, natural resource use and pollution as input data. The forecast came as a kind of shock: if the existing ones at the end of the 60s are maintained. trends and rates of economic development and population growth, then humanity will inevitably come to a global economic catastrophe at the end of the 21st century. A thorough, repeatedly tested calculation on a computer showed that if we continue the observed trends in the future for all indicators, then during the first half of the 21st century. mineral resources, starting with oil, gas, coal, will dry up, environmental pollution will become irreversible, and industrial and agricultural production will begin to decline. The contours of the imminent end of the world and the death of humanity appeared. This is how global studies emerged as a new direction, covering the global problems of our time.

The next model by M. Mesarovic and E. Pestel, “Humanity at the Turning Point,” was more specific. The authors tried to look at the world as a system of distinct but interacting regions. Rejecting the inevitability of a single global environmental catastrophe, they saw the future of humanity in various and long-term crises, such as energy, raw materials, food, demographic and, of course, environmental. The models became more and more specific. The methodological principles, techniques and methods of global forecasting have become more complex. The authors divided the world into ten large regions - five developed and five developing - and concluded that in the foreseeable future of the very next decades, disaster will first occur in developing regions, and then in developed countries. The third report to the Club of Rome, “Revisiting the International Order” (1976), listed all the major global problems (food scarcity, environmental degradation, decline in mineral resources and energy, ocean pollution, population growth and urbanization, poverty in developing countries, arms race) and expressed recommendations for stabilizing the situation. The fourth report was carried out under the direction of Erwin Laszlo and was called “The Goals of Humanity” (1977). The recommendations were that population and production growth should be reduced to zero. The solution was seen in zero industrial and demographic growth, which was considered unrealistic, since no country was prepared for such actions.

Scientists at the Club of Rome formulated the concept of “limits to growth” - the standard of living of developed countries turned out to be unattainable for developing countries due to environmental limitations. The way out was seen in the following measures: the creation of a world government, the decisions of which would be binding, and most importantly, a change in mentality, abandonment of the ideology of consumerism, the formation of new values ​​and standards.

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The Club of Rome and its contribution to solving global problems

global socionatural peccea roman

Goals and objectives of the Club of Rome

The global problems of our time are a set of socio-natural problems, the solution of which determines the social progress of mankind and the preservation of civilization. These problems are characterized by dynamism, arise as an objective factor in the development of society and require the united efforts of all humanity to be solved. Global problems are interconnected, cover all aspects of people's lives and affect all countries of the world.

Global problems have common sources of origin and development, so it is important to classify and systematize them in a certain way, to understand the reasons for their occurrence and the conditions under which they can be solved by society.

The noted facts of the theory of global problems - the exhaustibility of natural resources, the danger of self-destruction of humanity - formed the basis for the method of studying global problems, called global modeling. A special role in the development and application of global modeling belongs to the Club of Rome - an organization of Western scientists, businessmen, politicians and public figures concerned with the development of measures to prevent global threats. The Club of Rome was created in 1968. Since then, with the moral and material support of this organization, a whole series of studies on global issues have been carried out. Many of them became widely known and found a response in the world community and in the leadership of Western countries.

The Club of Rome organizes large-scale research on a wide range of issues, but mainly in the socio-economic field.

The theoretical activity of the Club of Rome is ambiguous: it includes a wide range of specific scientific developments that gave rise to such a new direction of scientific research as global modeling and general philosophical discussions about human existence in the modern world, the values ​​of life and the prospects for the development of mankind. Work in the field of global modeling, construction of the first computer models of the world, criticism of the negative trends of Western civilization, debunking the technocratic myth of economic growth as the most effective means of solving all problems, searching for ways to humanize man and the world, condemning the arms race, calling on the world community to join forces, to stop ethnic strife, preserve the environment, increase people's well-being and improve the environment, increase people's well-being and improve the quality of life - all this constitutes the positive aspects of the activities of the Club of Rome, which attracted the attention of progressive scientists, politicians, and government officials.

Theoretical studies of representatives of the Club of Rome, as well as research methodology, are used in various sciences.

The global modeling method consists of theoretically simulating the dynamics of global processes using mathematical models and computer technology. It is obvious that the capabilities of modern computer technology make it possible to take into account a huge number of parameters of global development and, on this basis, to identify the long-term consequences of modern trends. It was on the desire to predict the nature of the long-term consequences of those processes that are well known today that the first report to the Club of Rome, published in 1972, was built. It was called “The Limits to Growth.” The team of authors, headed by D. Meadows, set the task of identifying the limits to the growth of world civilization, determined by the finite size of the planet and the limited ability of it to withstand anthropogenic loads. Five parameters were taken as a basis: environmental pollution, use of non-renewable resources, volume of investment, population growth, and food supply. The dynamics of changes in these parameters, taking into account their mutual influence, were extended to the future. The study led to the conclusion that if existing trends continue, already in the first quarter of the 3rd millennium, humanity may come to a general catastrophe. The authors of the report concluded that it is necessary to limit the development of production, as well as significantly slow down the growth of the planet's population. The report attracted enormous attention because it showed what threats await humanity if current trends continue.

Aurelio Peccei and his theory of the origins of global problems

In his famous book “Human Qualities,” A. Peccei states that the environmental situation in the world that had developed by the early 70s was a crisis. He emphasizes that man, whose material power has reached its apogee, has turned the planet into his empire, which is already turning into an environmental disaster. Man increasingly develops an insatiable appetite for consumption, without thinking at all about the consequences of his growing aspirations and needs. The diverse artificial world created by man is increasingly crowding nature.

A. Peccei notes that a person is connected with other people by thousands of threads, his present predetermines the future, there is no and cannot exist environmental independence. We especially emphasize this idea, because no matter how this or that country protects its natural environment, no matter what sophisticated measures it takes in this regard, destruction of this environment by neighboring countries cannot be ruled out. The Chernobyl accident is convincing proof of this.

A. Peccei concludes that the finite size of the planet necessarily presupposes the limits of human expansion in relation to nature. This conclusion ran counter to the prevailing orientation in world culture towards the unbridled growth of production indicators and turned into a symbol of a new style of thinking of man in his relationship to nature As a result, a new type of human value relationship to nature emerged—a responsible, proportionate relationship between the needs of society and the capabilities of nature.

From the point of view of A. Peccei, a new humanism is needed, based and aimed at significantly improving the human qualities of all inhabitants of the planet. In other words, A. Peccei proposes to make the center of attention a person, his way of existence and way of life, because the fate of the new world order will depend on his qualities and abilities. The progressive development of man, A. Peccei believes, and the parallel improvement of his human qualities will bring with it a radical revision of man’s perception of himself and man in general, his role and responsibility. And this is the only way not only to satisfy the growing needs of humanity, but also to give man a certain opportunity to intelligently plan your future.

Solving global problems

Theorists of the Club of Rome place the main emphasis on solving global problems on strengthening international cooperation of all countries. Naturally, following the path of development and strengthening of international cooperation is the most realistic way of practical implementation and solution of the problems facing modern humanity. However, such international cooperation should exclude the imperial policy of more developed countries in relation to less developed ones. It is no secret that even today international trade redistributes global resources in such a way that the primacy of countries becomes especially noticeable. Often, under the guise of aid, unprofitable production facilities are transferred to less developed countries, energy resources are pumped out of them, and weapons are offered in return at a very high price. Another form of exploitation of lagging countries is practiced, such as dumping hazardous waste from the chemical and nuclear industries on their territory in exchange for financial assistance.

Based on the developments of the Club of Rome to solve modern global environmental problems, it is necessary to conduct a constant targeted search for new options for the harmonious development of man and the biosphere. We need to know exactly what is prohibited to society by nature, what can disrupt the stability of the natural world, destroy the conditions under which people can confidently live and build your own civilization. We need to understand what this civilization should be like - a reality that meets the growing needs of man and the limited capabilities of nature.

Humanity must confront global threats with a united front, coordinating its efforts. But this does not mean that differences between countries and peoples, between classes and social groups will be erased, or that the interests of nations and national economies will be leveled out. The modern world is unthinkable without differences in interests - individuals, individual groups, states, etc. However, the history of human development convinces us that the desire to destroy differences in interests only leads to total unfreedom.

The development of civilization has made different parts of humanity dependent on each other. This dependence is an imperative of relations in modern society - both at the interstate, intergroup, and interindividual levels. However, an individual state should not, even in the light of universal interdependence, renounce its national interests. He is only asked to learn to take into account the interests of other states.

Global consciousness, in one of its main aspects, is the consciousness of caring for one’s own country, its well-being and prosperity, since the interdependence of countries, characteristic of the modern world, cannot be interpreted in the sense that the world community is obliged to lead an individual country out of crisis and guide it on the path to prosperity. Responsibility for the planet cannot but begin with responsibility for one’s country, since the crisis of the statehood of a single country complicates the global situation in the political aspect; environmental and resource crises threaten the ecological balance and complicate the resource problem on a global scale; the economic crisis leads to social consequences in other countries.

Currently, the position of activism that society previously focused on has exhausted its possibilities. The desire for the dominance of man over nature and the associated desire for the dominance of man over man cannot now serve anything positive. However, an attempt to return to past forms of human existence and his relationship to nature cannot serve anything positive. Within the framework of global consciousness, it is necessary to reconsider all basic types of relationships: human relations with nature, relations between social communities (classes, social groups, nations, etc.), human relations with people, relations with the past, history, and ancestors. The need to reconsider previous relations arises in the face of a global threat. Global consciousness places at the center of its consideration the question of man, his ability to cope with the situation, his prospects for survival.

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“We had to do it so that
as many people as possible were able to complete
this sharp leap in one’s understanding of reality...”

Aurelio Peccei

In 1968, on the initiative Aurelio Peccei The Club of Rome was created - an international non-governmental organization whose activities are aimed at studying global problems.

Before the creation of the club, “To fuel the imagination of colleagues, a good preliminary document was needed. And here, as in many other endeavors, the question came down to where to find a talented person with free time who would translate ideas that seemed reasonable to us into convincing language. This request was made to Erich Jantsch. I didn’t know him then, but having gotten to know him better, I realized that Jantsch was endowed not only with a rare mind, but also with the ability to dissect the future so soberly and ruthlessly that it involuntarily took on the character of a stern warning. An astronomer by training, he sometimes looked at his fellow humans on the planet as if from transcendental heights. The document he prepared, entitled “An Attempt to Create Principles of World Planning from the Position of General Systems Theory,” was clearly thought out and convincing, although not always easy to understand. I am very grateful to Erich Jantsch for this and many other opportunities to join his progressive ideas and views, which served as food for my own thoughts. If we express the essence of the document created by Jantsch in just a few phrases, it boils down to the following: “At present, we are beginning to recognize human society and its environment as a single system, the uncontrolled growth of which is the cause of its instability. The currently achieved absolute level of this uncontrolled growth determines the high inertia of the dynamic system, thereby reducing its flexibility and ability to change and adapt. It became quite obvious that in this system there are no internal cybernetic mechanisms and no “automatic” self-regulation of macro processes is carried out. This cybernetic element of the evolution of our planet is man himself, who is capable of actively influencing the formation of his own future. However, he can actually accomplish this task only if he controls the entire complex system dynamics of human society in the context of its environment... which may usher in humanity's entry into a new phase of psychological evolution."

Aurelio Peccei, Human qualities, M., “Progress”, 1985, p. 123-124.

“Following this, I, having secured the financial support of the Agnelli Foundation, selected, together with King, about thirty European scientists - natural scientists, sociologists, economists, specialists in the field of planning and wrote to them, inviting everyone to come to Rome on April 6-7, 1968 to discuss many issues . Hoping that this meeting would be a significant event, I approached the President of the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, founded in 1603 and therefore the oldest existing academy, with a request to provide us with his premises, which, I believed, would be a worthy place for our meeting. He kindly placed at our disposal the Villa Farnesina - a charming palace in the Renaissance style, surrounded by a beautiful park with Lebanese cedars, cypresses, bergamot trees, laurel and evergreen bushes, and amazingly painted inside by such great masters as Raphael, Sebastiano del Piombo and Sodoma.

Aurelio Peccei, Human qualities, M., “Progress”, 1985, p. 125.

According to the Charter, the number of members of the Club of Rome is limited 100 participants from 30 countries of the world.

The main intellectual product of the Club’s activities are its Reports on global problems of our time and possible ways to solve them.

“... The club only sets the topic and guarantees funding for scientific research, and not at the expense of its own funds, which it does not have for these purposes, but by attracting various funds and sponsors. At the same time, the Club does not influence the progress of the work, nor its results and conclusions, and the authors retain complete independence in the implementation of their creative ideas. The final result of work on the project is its discussion and approval, which usually takes place at the Club’s annual conference with the participation of invited scientists, public and political figures, and representatives of the press. The Club of Rome then publishes the report and is involved in its replication, dissemination and discussion in various countries and audiences."

Small Russian Encyclopedia of Prognosis / Ch. editor I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada, M., “Institute of Economic Strategies”, 2007, p. 217.

In total, by order of the Club of Rome, groups of famous scientists prepared more than 30 Reports...

In the early 70s, the first Reports to the Club of Rome were prepared

The phenomena that are commonly called “global problems” arose in the mid-20th century and were recognized by the scientific community 20 years later. Global problems- these are problems affecting (to one degree or another) all countries and peoples, the solution of which is possible only through the united efforts of the entire world community. The very existence of earthly civilization, or at least its further development, is connected with the solution of these problems.

Global problems are complex in nature, tightly intertwined with each other. With a certain degree of convention, two main blocks can be distinguished (Fig. 1):

1) problems associated with the contradiction between society and the environment (the “society-nature” system);

2) social problems associated with contradictions within society (the “person – society” system).

The listed problems matured asynchronously. The English economist T. Malthus back in the early 19th century. concluded that there is a danger of excessive population growth. After 1945, the threat of the development of weapons of mass destruction became obvious. The gap between the world at the forefront of the “rich North” and the backward “poor South” was recognized as a problem only in the last third of the 20th century. The problem of international organized crime became acute only at the end of the 20th century.

Nevertheless, it is correct to consider the mid-20th century as the moment of birth of global problems. It was during this period that two processes unfolded, which seem to be the main root causes of modern global problems. The first process is the globalization of socio-economic and political life, based on the formation of a relatively unified world economy. The second is the deployment of the scientific and technological revolution (STR), which has multiplied manifold all human capabilities, including self-destruction. It is as these processes operate that problems that previously remained local become global. For example, the danger of overpopulation affected all countries when waves of migrants from developing countries poured into developed countries, and the governments of these countries began to demand a “new international order” - free aid as payment for the “sins” of the colonial past.

The Club of Rome played a primary role in recognizing global problems and finding ways to solve them.

Organization of the activities of the Club of Rome.

The Club began its activities in 1968 with a meeting at the Accademia Dei Lincei in Rome, from where the name of this non-profit organization came. Its headquarters are located in Paris.

The Club of Rome has no staff or formal budget. Its activities are coordinated by an executive committee consisting of 12 people. The post of president of the club was successively held by A. Peccei, A. King (1984–1991) and R. Diez-Hochleitner (since 1991).

According to the rules, no more than 100 people from different countries of the world can be active members of the Club. Among the Club members, scientists and politicians from developed countries predominate. In addition to full members, there are honorary and associate members.

The work of the Club of Rome is facilitated by more than 30 national associations of the Club of Rome, which promote the concepts of the club in their countries.

Russia in the early 2000s is represented in the Club by three people: an honorary member of the club is M. Gorbachev, full members are D. Gvishiani and S. Kapitsa. Previously, members of the Club were E.K. Fedorov, E.M. Primakov and Ch. Aitmatov. In 1989, the Association for Assistance to the Club of Rome was created in the USSR; after the collapse of the USSR, it was reformed into the Russian Association for Assistance to the Club of Rome (president - D.V. Gvishiani).

The main “product” of the Club’s activities are its reports on priority global problems and ways to solve them. At the request of the Club of Rome, prominent scientists prepared more than 30 reports (Table). In addition, in 1991, the leaders of the Club prepared the first report on behalf of the Club of Rome itself - “The First Global Revolution”.

The methods of neoclassical economic theory, dominant in economic science, based on the principle of rational individualism, seem to Club members to be ineffective for understanding these problems. His research widely uses computer modeling and institutional methodology, based on an interdisciplinary approach and primary attention to institutions - organizations and cultural values. The concept of synergetics, a systemic analysis of complex phenomena, elements proposed by I. Prigogine (a full member of the Club) had a great influence on the development of the theory of global studies. which are interconnected by numerous interdependencies.

If initially the Club of Rome focused on the contradictions between society and nature, then it began to give priority to social problems.

The peak of the Club of Rome's influence on world public opinion occurred in the 1970s and 1980s. Under the influence of his activities, global studies emerged as an interdisciplinary social science discipline. In the 1990–2000s, the ideas of global studies entered scientific culture, but the activity of the Club of Rome and public attention to it dropped noticeably. Having fulfilled its role as a “leader” in the study of global problems of our time, the Club of Rome has become one of many international organizations coordinating the exchange of views between intellectuals on pressing issues of our time.

Analysis by the Club of Rome of global problems in the “society – nature” system.

The severity of global problems associated with contradictions between society and the environment is due to their connection with the security of earthly civilization. Modern highly developed technological civilization has lost the ability to self-regenerate that more primitive ancient and medieval societies possessed. If it collapses as a result of some cataclysm, it will be almost impossible to restore it. Even if humanity survives, it will not be able to return to the “Iron Age”, since most reserves of basic minerals have already been depleted to such an extent that complex technologies requiring metal-intensive equipment will be required to extract them. If the current “world of technology” dies, the new civilization can only be agricultural, but will never become industrial.

It was with the analysis of the relationship between society and the environment that the work of the Club of Rome began. The initial work at the Club's suggestion was carried out by the American computer modeling specialist J. Forrester. The results of his research, published in the book World dynamics(1971) showed that continuation of the previous rates of consumption of natural resources will lead to a worldwide environmental disaster in the 2020s.

A report to the Club of Rome created under the leadership of American systems research specialist D. Meadows Limits to growth(1972) continued and deepened the work of J. Forrester. This report gained a reputation as a scientific bestseller, it was translated into several dozen languages, and its very name became a household word.

The authors of this report, the most famous published by the Club of Rome, developed several models based on extrapolation of observed trends in population growth and depletion of known natural resources.

According to the standard model, if no qualitative changes occur, then at the beginning of the 21st century. First, there will be a sharp decline in per capita industrial production, and then in the global population (Fig. 2). Even if the amount of resources doubles, the global crisis will only be pushed back until about the middle of the 21st century. (Fig. 3). The only way out of the catastrophic situation was seen as a transition to development planned on a global scale according to the model global balance(in fact, “zero growth”), that is, the conscious conservation of industrial production and population (Fig. 4).

Most modern problems have become global in nature, they have become ubiquitous, interconnected and disturbing to all people, and the possibilities for solving them are related to planetary actions. The following problems can be called global:

§ An impending environmental disaster associated with environmental pollution, depletion of mineral resources, the appearance of ozone holes, the greenhouse effect, deforestation, acid precipitation;

§ A demographic crisis that can lead to overpopulation of the planet;

§ Economic crisis, consisting of an ever-increasing gap between rich and poor countries;

§ Military danger.

Global problems attracted the attention of scientists in the 60-70s. 20th century, when it was created Roman Club – an informal organization of scientists who were the first to apply the method of mathematical modeling to the study of socio-ecological processes. Reports to the Club of Rome, presenting various scenarios for world development, laid the foundation for futurology and global studies. A prominent Italian businessman and an outstanding humanist became the President of the Club of Rome Aurelio Peccei, who decided to build predictive models using the best computers of that time. In 1968, he gathered reputable researchers, called this meeting the Club of Rome and appealed to sponsors to fund the research. The research program was developed in the book “World Dynamics” by the American economist J. Forrester, who is considered the founder of global forecasting based on system analysis. It is his merit that he attempted to use mathematical methods and computers to create a version of a model of economic development of society, taking into account the most important factors - population and environmental pollution. First report The Club of Rome was called "Limits to Growth". A dynamic model of the world was built, which included population, investment, land space, natural resource use and pollution as input data. The forecast came as a kind of shock: if the existing ones at the end of the 60s are maintained. trends and rates of economic development and population growth, then humanity will inevitably come at the end of the 21st century. to a global environmental disaster. Already during the first half of the 21st century. mineral resources, starting with oil, gas, coal, will dry up, environmental pollution will become irreversible, and industrial and agricultural production will begin to decline. A new direction is emerging, covering the global problems of our time - global studies.

Next model M. Mesarovic and E. Pestel "Humanity at a Turning Point" was more specific. The authors tried to look at the world as a system of distinct but interacting regions. Rejecting the inevitability of a single global environmental catastrophe, they saw the future of humanity in various and long-term crises, such as energy, raw materials, food, environmental, and demographic ones. The authors divided the world into ten large regions - five developed and five developing - and concluded that in the foreseeable future, disaster will first occur in developing regions, and then in developed countries. In the third report to the Club of Rome "Revisiting the International Order" (1976) listed all the major global problems (food shortages, environmental degradation, reduction of mineral resources and energy, ocean pollution, population growth and urbanization, poverty in developing countries, arms race) and made recommendations for stabilizing the situation. Fourth report was carried out under the direction of Erwin Laszlo and was called "The Goals of Humanity" (1977). The recommendations were that population and production growth should be reduced to zero. The solution was seen in zero industrial and demographic growth, which was considered unrealistic, since no country was ready for such actions.

Scientists of the Club of Rome formulated the concept "limits to growth" - the standard of living of developed countries turned out to be unattainable for developing countries due to environmental restrictions. The way out was seen in the following measures: the creation of a world government, the decisions of which would be binding, and most importantly, a change in mentality, the rejection of the ideology of consumerism, and the formation of new values.

Ecological problem.

Technical civilization based on industrial production leads to predatory use and depletion of all the natural capabilities of the planet. At the current pace of technological development, energy production on Earth in 240 years will exceed the amount of solar energy falling on our planet, in 800 years - all the energy released by the Sun, and in 1300 years - the total radiation of our entire galaxy. More than a third of the forests that covered the Earth have already been destroyed, this leads to a disruption in the ecological balance of the planet. Environmental degradation is aggravating the situation of the world's poor, and mass migrations are beginning. Women and children suffer the most from poverty. Other environmental problems include fresh water deficiency, ozone layer depletion, ocean pollution, soil degradation and desertification. There are three sources of air pollution: industry, domestic boiler houses, and transport. The greenhouse effect leads to rising temperatures in the atmosphere and rising sea levels, and more than 2 billion people live within 60 km of the coast. Over the past half century, 11% of the Earth's fertile surface has been destroyed, which is more than the combined area of ​​India and China. The richness of the biosphere is declining catastrophically: by 2010, irreversible losses may reach 1/3 of all biological species.

Huge amounts of money are required to improve the environment. For example, to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 50% in the United States by replacing coal plants with nuclear ones, $50 billion will be required.

In the 20th century Dangerous man-made disasters have emerged, in which more people die than in all natural disasters combined.

Demographic problem.

Even 200 years ago, Thomas Malthus stated that the capabilities of the Earth are growing in arithmetic progression, and the number of humanity is growing in geometric progression, therefore wars are necessary and salutary. Now the situation is such that it is necessary to reduce either the population of the planet or the needs of people. The world population is growing at a rate that could double every 35 years. If we assume that such growth rates continue in the future, then by 2400 humanity will fill the entire land surface shoulder to shoulder.

The number of people on earth was about 800 million people. by the middle of the 18th century. Then came a period of accelerated population growth. Around 1820 the population reached 1 billion, and in 1927 this number doubled. The third billion was recorded in 1959, the fourth – 15 years later. In 1987, the population reached 5 billion people, and in the 21st century. – more than 6 billion people. The most difficult countries from a demographic point of view are China, which already has 1.1 billion, and in India by 2050 the population is predicted to be 1.5 billion. Daily population growth is now 232 thousand people, annual growth is 85 million people.

Stabilization of the world population is one of the most important conditions for the transition to sustainable environmental and economic development. According to forecasts, the population by the end of the 21st century. will be 12-15 billion people. Every day there are a quarter of a million more people in the world. A significant feature of the modern demographic situation is that 90% of population growth occurs in developing countries, whose share in the total world population exceeds 80%. The bulk of the population lives in three regions: in the south and southeast of Asia (the population of China and India accounts for 2/5 of the world's population), Latin America and Africa.

The main danger is poverty.

Military danger.

In the twentieth century, humanity found itself in a situation of danger of self-destruction. And in the 21st century. this danger remains. Nuclear tests are being carried out, the number of countries possessing nuclear weapons is expanding. Every year, governments around the world spend about $1,000 billion on weapons and other military purposes, and only a tiny fraction of this amount on health, education and social services. Overpopulation and poverty can lead to aggravation of political conflicts and provoke the use of weapons of mass destruction, which will lead to a global environmental disaster.

According to A. Peccei, the problem of the limits of human growth and human development is, in essence, a mainly cultural problem, since a colossal gap arises between the material capabilities of a person and his culture. There are many alternatives, new ways of living, producing and consuming.