The concept of sustainable growth rightfully belongs to one of the leading experts in the field of financial strategic analysis and managerial finance to R. Higgins, who in his famous book "Financial Analysis for Financial Management" in 1992 devoted a whole section to the concept of sustainable growth and the problems of its financing. Let's follow his reasoning and call our path "From the rate of sustainable growth to the concept of sustainable development."

Investment in accelerated development. Development and growth are special problems that require special financial management mechanisms. Managers generally seek to accelerate the rate of growth. And this is quite understandable: the higher the growth rate, the greater the market share, the higher and greater the profit. However, from the point of view of financial management, this conclusion is easy to refute. The fact is that high growth rates require large investments. Most often they are in short supply, at least the demand exceeds their supply. Managers take loans, thereby increasing financial, credit risks, and maybe the risks of bankruptcy.

However, when a company develops at a slow pace, financiers also get nervous. If the managers of a slowly growing or stagnant company cannot make the necessary financial decisions in time, they expose the company to the risk of takeovers.

The concept of sustainable growth:

development requires a special financial management mechanism;

high growth rates imply a high risk of bankruptcy; low growth rates entail the risk of absorption; Optimal growth rates are sustainable growth rates

The formation of a special mechanism for managing sustainable development begins with the calculation of optimal, or sustainable growth rates. After that, options for financial solutions for two opposite situations are considered. The first of them is related to the fact that the general strategic goals of the company require accelerated development, while accelerated development in the 5(7/?) model means only one thing: growth rates exceed sustainable growth rates. The second situation is alternative to the first, when a combination of factors forces managers to make decisions At the same time, slow development in the presence of the 5C/? model takes on clear outlines: in this case, growth rates turn out to be lower than sustainable development rates.

Following R. Higgins, we formalize the relationship between the company's financial resources and the rate of its development, using the sustainable growth formula. Let's try to write a simple equation based on a number of assumptions:

• 1) the company is definitely developing, i.e. its growth rate is greater than 0;
• 2) managers do not want to change anything in their financial policy, which means:
  • o the capital structure remains unchanged (i.e. you can borrow, but only within the established proportions and a given level financial leverage);
  • o the issue of shares is either impossible or undesirable;
  • o Dividend policy is stable, i.e. The dividend payout rate is fixed and does not change.

We will definitely return to these assumptions later and evaluate their realism. Now we admit that all of them are quite typical and typical of the policy of most companies with only one caveat: the company's growth rates under these conditions are stable and do not require radical financial decisions.

The concept of sustainable growth or risk minimization. Difficulties in financing arise only when the company grows too quickly or too slowly. Within the framework of the concept of sustainable growth, it is now backward: too fast means moving at a speed above sustainable growth rates, too slow means moving at a speed below sustainable growth rates. Moreover, we have come to a fundamental understanding of the concept of sustainable development. Sustained growth rates determine the rate of development that can be financed under sustainable financial policy, those. either through retained earnings (the rate of accumulation is unchanged) or through loans (the capital structure is also unchanged), which means only one thing: you can increase borrowing only in proportion to the growth of equity.

Reasoning about the speed of development is, in fact, a conversation about the growth rate of sales. For sales growth, the company's assets need to be increased. In accordance with the concept of sustainable growth and the structure of the analytical balance sheet, this increase can only be covered by an increase in retained earnings and a proportional increase in borrowings. Thus, a company's sustainable growth rate (the growth rate of its sales) refers to the growth rate of its own capital, the source of which is retained earnings.

where g* is the rate of sustainable growth.

Formation of the PRAT formula. Changes in equity, under the assumptions made, is the increment for the year of retained earnings:

If /? - the rate of accumulation, i.e. the percentage by which the part of net profit directed to development is determined, the redistributed profit is equal to D x Net profit:

Where E* - equity at the beginning of the period.

If we recall that the net profit per unit of equity capital is nothing but its profitability, i.e. ROE, a ROE, in turn, is the product of the rate of profit (R), asset turnover (A) and financial leverage (G), i.e.

then the final form of the formula will be:

Where T - assets related to equity at the beginning of the period (financial leverage).

Where R - rate of return; K is the rate of accumulation;

A - asset turnover; T- financial leverage

Operating and financial policy parameters. The study of this formula provides grounds for serious observations and conclusions.

Firstly, sustainable growth rates are the product of four parameters: the rate of return (P); asset turnover (A); accumulation rates (/?); financial leverage (D).

Two parameters - the rate of return and turnover - represent the total results of operating activities. They concentrate the operating policy or operating strategies of the company. At the same time, two other parameters - the rate of accumulation and financial leverage - reflect in a concentrated way the financial policy of the company, i.e. her financial strategies.

Financial strategies are divided into two classes. The first class of these financial strategies is united under the auspices of profit distribution and is inextricably linked with the dividend policy and the profit capitalization policy, i.e. with the definition of the rate of accumulation. The second class of financial strategies is determined by the ratio of own and borrowed capital and is inextricably linked with the capital structure policy.

Operational strategies implicitly carry financial decisions or decisions about implicit hidden forms of financing.

Secondly, growth rates are stable if all four parameters are stable at the same time: rate of return, asset turnover, savings rate, financial leverage.

Very serious conclusions follow from these two superficially simple observations. The first is this: if managers want to accelerate their development, i.e. real dark growth must exceed the rate of sustainable growth, at least one of the four parameters must change: the rate of return, asset turnover, the rate of accumulation, financial leverage.

The second conclusion is a consequence of the first. If during financial analysis and diagnosing real growth rates turn out to be higher than sustainable, any company must either improve its operating activities(i.e. increase the rate of return, accelerate asset turnover), or change their financial policy (i.e. increase the rate of accumulation or increase financial leverage).

If in financial management not control the rate of development, the growth rate may be excessively high. After all, it is far from always possible to increase the rate of profit, the rate of turnover of assets, the more difficult it is to somehow radically change the financial policy. It is under these circumstances that the problem of excessive growth, which is burdensome for the company, arises. Both excessiveness and burdensomeness arise when comparing the speed of development with the financial capabilities of the company. In the case of serious strategic intentions, managers are required to make a serious effort to bring these ideas into line with financial policy, or, conversely, to develop financial policies that are consistent with strategic aspirations.

Strategic growth and its financial support. Unfortunately, many companies strive for accelerated development, while forgetting about possible financial problems. More often than not, they simply do not realize the close relationship between strategic growth and its financial support. As a result, managers, striving for high growth, fall into a vicious circle of perpetual shortage of money. After all, rapid growth is in dire need of large-scale financing. And everything that the company earns in the form of income, it is forced to invest in its own development. It seems to managers that the issue can be solved by attracting loans, but sooner or later, with the level of profit margin reached, they will reach a critical level of financial leverage, and creditworthiness drops sharply. The most dramatic outcome with such a policy is bankruptcy. Of course, this is an extreme, marginal case, but it constantly threatens those who like to take risks. Can the situation be corrected? Can. To do this, you need to learn how to develop financial strategies, skillfully managing your own development as a result. And the concept of sustainable growth helps in this. It provides an opportunity to closely study the genesis of financial strategies, designate their possible list and thereby predetermine a reasonable choice of financial policy.

Accelerated growth and right-handed behavior. We have to give a complete and thorough answer to the question: what should the managers of the company do when the general strategic and marketing goals development dictate growth rates that are higher than sustainable?

Second. Determine real growth rates and fix the strategic gap between strategic and sustainable development rates.

Third. Form financial decisions and develop financial policies.

Fourth. Consider a possible list of financial and operational strategies, choose the best one and make the best financial or operational decision.

However, before embarking on financial decisions, it is important to determine how long the gap in real and sustainable growth will be. For this short period of time, it is best for companies to borrow. Once in the saturation stage and received a "surplus" of money in excess of investment needs, the company will be able to repay debts.

If the gap between real and sustainable growth turns out to be long-term, it is necessary to consider a set of possible solutions, try to choose the best one and develop a financial strategy.

Sustainability Memorandum

A sustainable growth rate analysis is an analysis of the growth rate of sales in the context of an unchanged financial policy of the company.

The stability of financial policy is the stability of four parameters: asset turnover, rate of return, rate of accumulation and leverage.

A permanent shortage of funds requires changes in financial policy.

High growth rates lead to a lack of money even in a high yield environment.

If a company is unable to generate operating cash flow adequate to the requirements of growth, it must change its financial policy.

Sales growth is an independent variable in the operating system.

If the company has the opportunity to grow at a rate exceeding sustainable, and management strives for this, it must formulate a new set of coefficients that reflect its financial policy.

3. 3. The growth rate of the organization: the factors that determine them, the method of calculation

There is a direct relationship between enterprise growth and external financing. This relationship is expressed using special indicators:

coefficient of internal growth,

sustainable growth rate.

Internal growth rate is the maximum growth rate that an enterprise can achieve without external financing. In other words, an enterprise can provide such growth using only internal sources of financing.

The formula for determining the coefficient of internal growth is as follows:

Where ROA- net return on assets (Net profit / Assets),

RR- coefficient of reinvestment (capitalization) of profit

Sustainable growth rate shows the maximum growth rate that the company can maintain without increasing financial leverage. Its value can be calculated using the formula:

(3.4)

Where ROE – net return on equity.

(3.5)

Where ROS – net return on sales (net profit/revenue)

PR– dividend payout ratio

D/ E– financial leverage (Debt/Equity)

A/ S– capital intensity (Asset/Revenue)

Determinants of Growth

According to DuPont's formula, return on equity is ROE can be decomposed into various components:

This formula establishes the relationship between the return on equity and the main financial indicators of the enterprise: net return on sales ( ROS), asset turnover ( TAT) and equity multiplier ( equity multiplier, EAT).

Then from the Higgins model (formulas 3.4 or 3.5) it follows that everything that increases ROE, will have a similar effect on the value of the sustainable growth rate. It is easy to see that an increase in the reinvestment rate will have the same effect.

This leads to the conclusion that the ability of an enterprise to sustainable growth depends directly on four factors:

1. Net return on sales (shows production efficiency).

2. Dividend policy (measured by the reinvestment ratio).

3. Financial policy (measured by financial leverage).

4. Asset turnover (shows the efficiency of asset use)

However, if an enterprise is unwilling to issue new shares and its net return on sales, dividend policy, financial policy, and asset turnover are unchanged, then there is only one possible growth factor.

The sustainable growth factor is used to:

calculation of the possibilities of achieving the consistency of the various goals of the enterprise,

determining the feasibility of the planned growth rate.

If sales volumes grow at a faster pace than the sustainable growth ratio recommends, then the company should increase the following indicators: net profit margin, asset turnover, financial leverage, reinvestment ratio; or issue new shares.

3.4. Forecasting the financial stability of the enterprise.

Bankruptcy Prediction Models

One of the most important tasks of long-term financial planning is to predict the stability of the enterprise from a long-term perspective. This task is primarily related to the predictive assessment of the overall financial stability of the enterprise, which is characterized by the ratio of own and borrowed funds. So, if the predictive structure "own capital - borrowed capital" has a significant bias towards debt, the enterprise may go bankrupt, since several creditors may simultaneously demand their money back at an "inconvenient" time.

The predictive assessment of the financial stability of an enterprise includes a number of indicators: autonomy ratio (E / A), financial leverage (D / E), financial dependence ratio (D / A), interest coverage ratio by profit (TIE), "Coverage of fixed financial expenses" (FCC )

Such coefficients, calculated on the liabilities of the forecast balance, are the main ones in assessing the financial stability of the enterprise. Also, to assess the forecast liquidity of the enterprise, additional calculations are carried out: the articles of the forecast asset of the balance sheet are grouped according to the degree of decreasing liquidity, and the liabilities of the balance sheet - according to the degree of urgency of payment. When determining the forecast liquidity of the balance sheet, the asset and liability groups are compared with each other. The balance sheet is considered absolutely liquid if the following ratios of groups of assets and liabilities are met: A1 ≥ P1; A2 ≥ P2; A3 ≥ P3; A4 ≤ P4.

Systematic unsustainable financial condition businesses lead to bankruptcy. In line with federal law RF dated October 26, 2002 No. 127-FZ “On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)”, bankruptcy proceedings may be initiated provided that the amount of claims against the debtor is at least 100 thousand rubles. and the corresponding obligations to satisfy the claims of creditors or to make mandatory payments are not fulfilled within three months from the date when they should be fulfilled.

In world practice, several bankruptcy prediction campaigns :

1. Formalized criteria - this is a system of financial ratios, the level and dynamics of which in the complex can give grounds for conclusions about the probable occurrence of bankruptcy. In our country, quantitative criteria for determining the unsatisfactory structure of the balance sheet of an insolvent enterprise are contained in the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of May 20, 1994 No. 498 “On Certain Measures to Implement the Legislation on Insolvency (Bankruptcy) of Enterprises”. These include the coefficient of current liquidity, the coefficient of provision with own working capital, the coefficient of restoration (loss) of solvency.

2. Non-formalized criteria - these are characteristics of a deteriorating financial condition, often without quantitative measurement. Such criteria are found, for example, in:

Recommendations of the Committee on the compilation of UK audit practice, including a list of critical indicators for assessing the possible bankruptcy of organizations. On their basis, a two-level system of indicators has been developed.

A-models developed by D. Argenti. The model is used for high level prediction financial risk and the risk of bankruptcy; is based on subjective judgments of participants in the lending process.

3. Calculation of a complex indicator.

Z-Altman's account

Known are two-factor, five-factor and seven-factor models for predicting the bankruptcy of companies, developed by American specialists led by E. Altman.

Two-factor model:

Other things being equal, the probability of bankruptcy is the less, the greater the current liquidity ratio and the lower the financial dependence coefficient:

For companies with Z=0, the probability of bankruptcy = 50%. If Z 0, then the bankruptcy probability is greater than 50% and increases with Z.

Five factor model:

where =(Working Capital/Assets),

= (Retained Earnings/Assets),

= (Earnings before interest and taxes/Assets),

= (Equity at market value / Borrowed capital),

Sales volume/Assets.

The resulting value is compared with the table data:

Seven Factor Model E. Altman includes the following indicators: return on assets, profit dynamics, interest coverage ratio by profit, cumulative profitability, coverage ratio (current liquidity), autonomy ratio, total assets. However, the application of this model is difficult due to the difficulty of obtaining information by external users.

In general, the critical value Z should be taken as a signal of danger, analyze the causes of the unsatisfactory situation and eliminate them.

W. Beaver coefficient - is the ratio of the company's cash flow to the total debt. Its values ​​are shown in the table:

• The Chesser ratio allows you to assess not only the probability of bankruptcy risk, but also the probability of default on repayment of debts on loans. The closer the value of this indicator to zero, the more stable the financial condition of the analyzed enterprise.

The calculation of the Chesser coefficient is carried out according to the formula:

Where e is the base of the natural logarithm (2.718281828)

y \u003d -2.0434 - 5.24X 1 + 0.0053 X 2 - 6.6507 X 3 + 4.4009 X 4 - 0.0791 X 5 - 0.102 X 6

X 1 = ( Cash and marketable securities) / Assets

X 2 \u003d Revenue / (Cash and marketable securities)

X 3 = Income / Assets

X 4 \u003d Borrowed capital / Assets

X 5 \u003d Equity / Net assets

X 6 = working capital/ Revenue

The financial position of the enterprise is considered satisfactory if the value of the coefficient is less than 0.5.

Fulmer's coefficient calculated by the formula:

H = 5.528*V 1 + 0,212* V 2 + 0,073* V 3 + 1,270* V 4 – 0,120* V 5 + 2,335* V 6 + 0,575* V 7 +

+ 1,083* V 8 + + 0,894* V 9 - 6,075 (3.10)

where V 1 = Retained earnings / Assets,

V 2 = Revenue / Assets,

V 3 = Profit before taxes / Assets,

V 4 = Cash flow / Borrowed capital,

V 5 = Borrowed capital / Assets,

V 6 = Current Liabilities / Assets,

V 7 = Tangible assets / Assets,

V 8 \u003d Working capital / Borrowed capital,

V 9 = Earnings before interest and taxes / Interest paid.

Bankruptcy is considered inevitable H

However, being a useful tool, bankruptcy diagnostics based on factorial models has a number of disadvantages:

such models do not allow assessing the reasons for the enterprise to fall into the “insolvency zone”;

the normative content of the coefficients used for the rating assessment does not take into account the industry specifics of enterprises;

For different countries, industries, etc. coefficients for model indicators (constants) will differ.

One of the most important tasks of planning is to ensure the continuous growth of the business by developing and implementing adequate investment, operational and financial strategies.

However, not every growth leads to the achievement of the main goal - the creation of additional value and an increase in the welfare of the company's owners. Moreover, high growth rates that are not consistent with the real capabilities of the enterprise and the conditions external environment, can lead to destruction of value or even complete loss of business.

Efficient Management growth, leading to an increase in the value of the enterprise, requires careful balancing and coordination of its key indicators its operating, investment and financial activities, search for a reasonable compromise between the pace of development, profitability and financial stability

The growth of the enterprise is directly related to external financing. This relationship is expressed using special coefficients: internal growth and sustainable growth.

Internal growth rate is the maximum growth rate (sales growth rate) that an enterprise can achieve without external financing. In other words, an enterprise can provide such growth using only internal sources of financing.

The formula for determining the coefficient of internal growth:

where gint is the coefficient of internal growth; ROA - net return on assets (Net profit / Assets); RR - profit reinvestment (capitalization) ratio (retained earnings/net profit).

Sustainable growth rate

If an enterprise forecasts a growth rate that exceeds the internal growth rate per year, it will need additional external financing. Another important factor is sustainable growth rate, showing the maximum growth rate that an enterprise can achieve without additional external financing through the issuance of new shares, while maintaining a constant level of financial leverage. ( We calculate the indicator of sustainable growth, find the planned new revenue, determine the net profit, capitalized profit and increase borrowed funds by the same percentage of the increase in retained earnings so that the level of financial leverage remains unchanged. At any other growth rate, the level of financial leverage will change.) Its value can be calculated using the formula:

Coefficient of sustainable (balanced) growth:

where ROE is the return on equity.

where ROS is the net return on sales (Net Profit/Revenue); PR - dividend payout ratio; D/E - financial leverage (Debt/Equity); A/S - capital intensity (Asset/Revenue).

There are various reasons why businesses avoid selling new shares: fairly expensive financing through new share issues; unwillingness to increase the number of owners; fear of losing control of the business, etc.

According to the DuPont Corporation formula, ROE can be decomposed into various components:

The formula establishes the relationship between the return on equity and the main financial indicators of the enterprise: net return on sales (ROS), asset turnover (TAT) and equity multiplier (EM).

Then it follows from the Higgins model that anything that increases ROE will similarly affect the value of the sustainable growth factor. Increasing the reinvestment rate will have the same effect.

Classic variant The sustainable growth model was first proposed by the American researcher R. Higgins in 1977. Subsequently, this model received various modifications proposed by other economists. Let's consider the simplest version of the enterprise sustainable growth model proposed by Blank:

where RR is the possible rate of growth in the volume of sales of products that does not violate the financial balance of the enterprise, expressed as a decimal fraction;

PE - the amount of net profit of the enterprise;

KKP - net profit capitalization ratio expressed as a decimal fraction;

A - the value of the assets of the enterprise;

KOa - asset turnover ratio in times;

OR-volume of product sales;

SC is the amount of equity capital of the enterprise.

For the economic interpretation of this model, we decompose it into separate components. In this case, the model of sustainable growth of the organization will take the following form:

For clarity, we reflect this relationship in the figure.

The organization's sustainable growth rate

From the above model, decomposed into its individual constituent elements, it can be seen that the possible growth rate of the volume of sales of products that does not violate the financial balance of the enterprise is the product of the following four coefficients achieved in its equilibrium state at the previous stage crisis management:

1) the profitability ratio of product sales;

2) net profit capitalization ratio;

H) asset leverage ratio (it characterizes the “financial leverage” with which the company’s equity capital forms the assets used in its economic activity);

4) asset turnover ratio.

Thus, the ability of the enterprise to sustainable growth depends directly on four factors:

1. Net return on sales. The growth of the net return on sales shows the company's ability to increase the use of internal sources of financing. In this case, the sustainable growth rate will increase.

2. Dividend policy. Decreasing the percentage of net income paid out as dividends increases the reinvestment rate. This will increase equity from domestic sources and hence boost sustainable growth.

3. Financial policy. The growth of the ratio of borrowed funds to equity capital increases the financial leverage of the enterprise. Since this allows additional financing through loans, the sustainable growth rate will also increase.

4. Asset turnover. An increase in the turnover of the company's assets increases the volume of sales received from each ruble of assets. This reduces the business's need for new assets as sales grow and therefore increases the sustainable growth rate. An increase in asset turnover is equivalent to a decrease in capital intensity.

The sustainable growth rate is a very useful indicator in financial planning. It establishes a precise relationship between the four main factors that affect the results of the enterprise:

1) production efficiency(measured by net return on sales);

2) efficient use of assets (measured by turnover);

3) dividend policy (measured by the reinvestment coefficient);

4) financial policy (measured by financial leverage).

However, if an enterprise is unwilling to issue new shares and its net return on sales, dividend policy, financial policy, and asset turnover are unchanged, then there is only one possible growth factor.

If sales volumes grow at a faster rate than recommended by the sustainable growth ratio, then the company should increase the following indicators: net profit sales, asset turnover, financial leverage, reinvestment ratio; or issue new shares.

The model involves obtaining information about the volume of sales under the conditions (limitations) that the values ​​of such variables as the level of costs, the capital used and its sources, etc., do not change, and the planning strategy is based on the assumption that the future is completely similar to the past. The use of the model is possible at enterprises that are satisfied with the achieved pace of development and are confident V stable impact of the external economic environment.

The very work on models, in addition to the possibility of obtaining a more efficient tool management of the planning process allows you to balance the goals of the enterprise V sales planning and, accordingly, production volumes, variable costs, investments V main and working capital necessary to achieve this volume, calculate the need for external financing, seeking sources of funds, taking into account the formation their rational structure.

The sustainable growth model is based on the assumption that the use of available funds (assets) by the enterprise should coincide with the established ratio of accounts payable and equity as sources of capital. When planning growth, the indicators included V this ratio varies proportionally. Under the condition of optimality, the enterprise does not follow the path of increasing external financing, but focuses on the use of profit, which is characterized by limitations in the coefficient that determines the ratio of borrowed And own funds (AP/SS). Determining the value of restrictions on the ratio of SL / SS, they proceed from the task of forming a rational structure of the sources of enterprise funds, based on the positive value of the effect financial lever. At the same time, the task of determining this rational structure is combined with a reasonable dividend policy.

7. Balanced Scorecard (BSC), (David Norton and Robert Kaplan 1990)

The Balanced Scorecard is a powerful system that helps organizations achieve strategy quickly by translating the vision And strategies V a set of operational goals that can guide the behavior of employees, And as a result, work efficiency.

Indicators of the effectiveness of the implementation of the strategy are the most important mechanism feedback required for dynamic tuning And improve strategy over time.

Concept The Balanced Scorecard is built on the premise that what drives shareholders to act should be measured. All activities of the organization, its resources And initiatives must align with strategy. The balanced scorecard achieves this goal by explicitly identifying the correlation of causes. And results for goals, indicators, And initiatives V each of the perspectives And at all levels of the organization. Developing an SSP is the first step V creating an organization focused on strategy.

IN In the course of its application, the balanced scorecard has become V wide management system. Therefore, many leaders see V it the structure of the entire process of operational management, which allows you to perform the following management actions:

Translation of long-term plans And strategies V the form of specific indicators of operational management;
- communication And switching the strategy to lower levels of the corporate hierarchy with the help of developed management indicators;
- strategy transformation V plans, V including budget;
- establishing feedback to test hypotheses And initiation of learning processes.

IN different from traditional methods strategic management, the balanced scorecard uses not only financial, But And non-financial performance indicators of the organization, reflecting the four most important aspects: finances; clients; business processes; education And development.

This approach makes it possible to analyze strategic And tactical management processes, establish causal relationships between strategic goals enterprises and provide its balanced development.

Discussed in this chapter theoretical approaches to growth analysis were first combined into one rather extensive class of strategic theories by Francisco Rosique (Rosique, F. , 2010). Let us consider the main and most relevant of them within the framework of this dissertation research.

S. Gosal and co-authors, based on the positive relationship they observed between the level of economic development and large companies operating in this economy suggested that this correlation is the result of a synthesis of managerial competencies, namely managerial decisions and organizational capabilities. While management decisions refers to the cognitive aspects of the perception of potential new combinations of resources and management, organizational capabilities reflect the real opportunity to actually implement them. The interaction of these two factors influences the speed with which firms expand their operations and, accordingly, the process of value creation by the company (Ghosal S., HahnM., MorganP., 1999).

J. Clark and co-authors in their work show that excessive sales growth can be just as destructive for a company as no growth at all. The authors examined growth models and showed how growth theories can be used in company management. Finally, they proposed a model to estimate the optimal capital structure given a certain company growth rate.

Within the framework of this dissertation research, it is most interesting to consider models of sustainable growth and analysis of growth using a growth matrix.

Sustainable growth model

R. Higgins proposed a sustainable growth model - a tool to ensure effective interaction operating policy, funding policy and growth strategy.

The concept of sustainable growth was first introduced in the 1960s by the Boston Consulting Group and further developed in the works of R. Higgins. According to the definition of the latter, the level of growth sustainability is the maximum rate of sales growth that can be achieved before the company's financial resources are completely used up. In turn, the sustainable growth model is a tool for ensuring effective interaction between operating policy, financing policy and growth strategy.

The concept of sustainable growth index is defined as the maximum rate of increase in profits without exhausting the company's financial resources. (Higgins, 1977). The value of this index lies in the fact that it combines operational (profit margin and asset management efficiency) and financial (capital structure and retention rate) elements in one unit of measure. Using the sustainable growth index, managers and investors can assess the feasibility of a company's future growth plans, taking into account current performance and strategic policy, thus getting necessary information about the levers affecting the level corporate growth. Factors such as industry structure, trends, and position relative to competitors can be analyzed to identify and exploit special opportunities. The sustainable growth index is usually expressed as follows:

where - is the index of sustainable growth, expressed as a percentage; - the amount of profit after taxes; - retention rate or reinvestment rate; - ratio of sales to assets or turnover of assets; - the ratio of assets to own funds or lever action.

The sustainable growth index model is usually used as an auxiliary tool for managing a company in such a way that the company's sales growth is comparable to its financial resources, as well as to assess its overall operational management. For example, if a firm's sustainable growth index is 20%, this means that if it maintains its growth rate at 20%, its financial growth will remain balanced.

When the sustainable growth index is calculated, it is compared with the actual growth of the company; if the sustainable growth index is lower over the period being compared, then this is an indication that sales are growing too fast. The company will not be able to maintain such activity without financial injections, as this can attract retained earnings to the development of the company, increase the size of net income or additional financing through an increase in debt levels or additional share issuance. If the company's sustainable growth index is greater than its actual growth, sales grow too slowly, and the company uses its resources inefficiently.

Despite the fact that growth sustainability models are striking in their diversity, most of them are modifications of traditional models. The latter include the models mentioned above by R. Higgins and BCG.

The most famous at the moment is the model developed by the Boston Consulting Group. The essence of the definition of sustainable growth does not differ from the approach proposed by Higgins: sustainable growth is the sales growth that the company will demonstrate with the same operating and financial policies:

The first two factors characterize the operational policy, the last two - the financing policy.

The R. Higgins model was presented by him in 1977. and further developed in his subsequent work in 1981. According to the R. Higgins model (Higgins R.C., 1977), the sustainable growth rate of a company that seeks to maintain the current level of dividend payments and the current capital structure is calculated by the following formula:

The variables involved in determining sustainable growth are return on sales, asset turnover, financial leverage, and savings rates. This rather simple equation can be obtained by expressing the increase in sales in terms of changes in assets, liabilities and equity of the company. R. Higgins interprets the ratio of SGR and sales growth as follows: if SGR is higher than sales growth, then the company needs to invest additional funds; if SGR is below sales growth, then the company will need to raise new sources of funding and/or reduce actual sales growth. Subsequently, Higgins developed several modifications of this model, for example, the inflation-adjusted sustainable growth model.

Thus, it is easy to see that the traditional view of growth is carried out from the position of balanced funding sources, and is based on accounting indicators.

1 .3 Model of economic profit in modern financial analysis

The use of the accounting model in modern financial analysis faces significant limitations. First, the accounting vision of the company, based on actual operations, excludes the alternative from the analysis. possible actions and practically ignores development options. Secondly, it does not express the fundamental concept of modern economic analysis- Creation of economic profit. The main principle of the analysis of the latter is to take into account alternative options for investing capital with a certain risk and corresponding risk economic effect or in accounting for lost investment income. Thirdly, this model does not focus the analysis on the problem of the uncertainty of the expected result, which is exactly what the investor faces. Fourth, the principle of the accounting model is associated with the nominal interpretation of the result, expressed in monetary terms. There is no investment interpretation of the result.

The problems outlined above are intended to be solved by an alternative method of corporate finance analysis, which is becoming more and more popular these days - a method based on the analysis of economic profit. The concept of economic profit, one of the tools of which is EVA-Economic Value Added, was first proposed in 1989 by P. Finegan (FineganP.T., 1989) and subsequently actively developed and implemented largely thanks to the work of a well-known consulting company Stern Stewart & Co. According to their approach, EVA is defined as the difference between net operating profit after taxes and the company's cost of capital. Thus, the calculation of EVA is based on determining the difference between the return on capital and the cost of raising it and allows you to evaluate the efficiency of capital use compared to alternative investment options.

At the moment, there are two fronts of researchers supporting and refuting the application of the EVA concept.

The best-known critique of EVA is G. Biddle et al., who examined the relationship between shareholder return and EVA on a sample of 6,174 company observations from 1984 to 1993. The authors showed that net income has a greater explanatory power in the analysis of return on equity than the indicator of economic profit and EVA.

Based on the above, it is fair to assume that if a company generates positive economic profit over a long period of time, then it has all the necessary characteristics of sustainable growth.

In the first chapter of the dissertation research were analyzed different approaches to the study of the growth process of companies. In this case, the following results were obtained:

• · Considering the questions devoted to the study of growth dynamics, it was concluded that we cannot unconditionally accept the theory of stochastic growth dynamics.
• ・Based on modern theories companies' growth lies strategic approach to the analysis of the enterprise.
• · When studying the problems of growth, it is necessary to identify the key factors that determine the growth of companies, their relationship.
• · Modern financial analysis, focused on assessing the value of the company being created, allows the company to be assessed from the standpoint of risk analysis and the corresponding profitability.
• · In the context of modern financial analysis based on value creation, a new formulation of the problem is needed, according to which sustainable growth should be evaluated by additional financial criteria.