Once a problem or opportunity catches the entrepreneur's attention, there is a need to understand the details of the situation. Diagnosis and analysis of the situation is a stage of the decision-making process at which the entrepreneur studies in depth the causes of the problem.

Once the problem or opportunity is recognized and analyzed, the entrepreneur begins to consider options for future action. The next step in the process is to develop solution options that will meet the needs of the situation and address the identified deficiencies.

Once several feasible solutions have been developed, a choice needs to be made. best option. This will be the one that provides the solution that best suits the organization's goals and values ​​and achieves the desired results. minimum costs resources.

The implementation stage of the chosen solution involves the use of managerial and administrative abilities and persuasion skills for the practical implementation of the chosen solution.

During the performance evaluation phase, the entrepreneur collects information that tells them how successfully the solution was implemented and whether it achieved their goals. Feedback is of great importance because decision making is a never-ending process.

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A. N. Baidakov, D. S. Kenina
Formation of technology for developing and making entrepreneurial decisions

© Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education Stavropol State Agrarian University, 2014

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Introduction

Adoption management decisions in business structures, as a rule, it is carried out under conditions of risk and uncertainty, which act as an integral attribute of business activity and largely determine its economic performance. This circumstance places special demands on the management of business systems.

The management of domestic business structures is often heuristic in nature and is largely based on the experience and intuition of the entrepreneur. This approach does not meet the requirements of systematicity and is often associated not only with the loss of possible profits, but also with damage. At the same time, without denying the presence of unique management problems, it should be borne in mind that many entrepreneurial situations have common features. This allows you to structure the processes of development and adoption of management decisions in entrepreneurship and, on this basis, develop appropriate business management technology.

The use of a technological approach in the management of business structures can significantly reduce Negative consequences business decisions made under conditions of risk and uncertainty and increase their effectiveness in favorable economic conditions. Its important advantage is its focus on regular use of the capabilities of modern information and analytical tools.

Therefore, the formation and widespread implementation technology for developing and making management decisions, adapted to the specific conditions of each business system, is one of the main directions for the development of risk management in entrepreneurship.

1. Theoretical and methodological foundations for the development and adoption of entrepreneurial decisions

1.1. Entrepreneurial decision as a specific type management activities

Entrepreneurship is a special area of ​​human activity that occupies a certain niche in the social order. This circumstance determines not only the corresponding specificity of the processes of developing and making entrepreneurial decisions, but also the very concept of “entrepreneurial decision”.

According to the Civil Code Russian Federation entrepreneurship is an initiative, independent activity carried out on one’s own behalf, at one’s own risk, under one’s own property responsibility, by citizens, individuals and legal entities, aimed at systematically generating income, profit from the use of property, selling goods, performing work, providing services, there is also regulatory support for entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship also pursues the goals of increasing the image, status of the entrepreneur, and the implementation of his ideas.

That is, the main attributes of entrepreneurship are visible - “on your own behalf”, “your own risk” and “systematic receipt of income, profit”, “entrepreneurial idea”, “property responsibility” and initiative. It is also necessary to especially point out the independence of the entrepreneur, which brings the personal factor to the fore, as well as the fact that a very wide range of people have the opportunity to become (and become) an entrepreneur, often without the necessary management skills and experience, not to mention special management preparation. It is these circumstances that determine the above-mentioned specifics of developing and making entrepreneurial decisions.

Entrepreneurship is becoming an increasingly global and diverse phenomenon, the forms and types of business are changing, the processes occurring both within firms and in their external environment, but the basic attributes of entrepreneurship remain unchanged: independence, risk, uncertainty and daily decision-making, the main result of which should be minimizing costs and obtaining the maximum possible profit.

The first economist to develop one of the first concepts of entrepreneurship is Richard Catillon (1680–1734), who defines an entrepreneur as a person acting under conditions of risk. It can be argued that Catillon is the founder of the thesis about the entrepreneur as an economic entity that assumes the responsibility of bearing various risks due to the uncertainty of the outcome economic activity. R. Catillon distinguished the function of representing capital from the entrepreneurial function. According to this definition, entrepreneurship is a purposeful activity that is impossible without the implementation of certain management actions.

A. Smith (1723 – 1790) made a significant contribution to the development of the theory of entrepreneurship. According to Smith, an entrepreneur is an owner of capital who, in order to implement some commercial idea and make a profit, takes economic risks. According to the scientist, the entrepreneur is mostly a capitalist. A. Smith considered private property the material basis of entrepreneurship, but he did not have unlimited confidence in the initiative of private individuals. In his opinion, even when meeting for the sake of a pleasant pastime, the conversation of entrepreneurs in the same industry often comes down to conspiring against buyers or agreeing to some agreement to raise prices. According to Smith, for a private enterprise to be useful to society, two important conditions must be met:

1) the entrepreneur must have personal benefit from the enterprise;

2) competition must keep it in certain conditions.

J.B. Say gives an original interpretation of the essence of an entrepreneur: this is an economic agent that combines factors of production, “drags” resources from the sphere of low productivity and profitability to the area in which they can give the greatest result (profit, income). Here, too, we clearly see the role and specifics of managerial activity in entrepreneurship.

Engaging in entrepreneurial activity forms and develops the ability of its subject to make decisions independently, with the development of entrepreneurship, with the advent of its new forms, with the development of competition, decision-making technologies are also being improved, only the desire of entrepreneurs to make a profit remains unchanged.

In our opinion, with the development of human society, the problems that entrepreneurs face and the ways to solve them become more and more complicated, and this leads to the need to develop and revise a number of provisions for the development and decision-making in entrepreneurship. On the one hand, problems become more diverse and complex, and on the other hand, as globalization entrepreneurial activity and the development of modern information and analytical tools, their solution is becoming more and more technological.

The nature of management decisions in entrepreneurship is determined the following factors :

– the inevitable presence of risk and uncertainty as situational characteristics;

– personal characteristics of the entrepreneur (manager);

– professional skills of an entrepreneur;

– level of independence of the entrepreneur’s actions;

– latent strategicity of entrepreneurial management;

– level of socio-economic development of society;

– level of development of entrepreneurship in the region and country;

– specific features of the business;

– globalization processes;

– level of development and use of information and analytical technologies.

Entrepreneurship is primarily associated with risk and uncertainty - they are one of its indispensable attributes. Moreover, we consider these categories, first of all, from the point of view of characteristics problematic situation.

An entrepreneur consciously takes risks, although often without properly analyzing its consequences, even if this is possible in principle. No one guarantees an entrepreneur that his product or service will be in demand and purchased, that the revenue received will cover the costs incurred and as a result he will make a profit.

The nature of risks is multifaceted. They can be strategic, financial, operational, legal, reputational, etc. One of the main tasks of an entrepreneur is to timely and adequately identify risk. In turn, one of the main functions of entrepreneurship is the creative function. The desire to maximize profit or another result, recognized by the entrepreneur as the goal of his activity, does not allow him to be satisfied with the current situation. He is constantly looking for ways to improve his business. Humanity owes the emergence of many original scientific, technical, economic and organizational solutions to the creative function of entrepreneurship.

The implementation of this function, or more precisely, of some entrepreneurial idea, is also inevitably associated with risks and uncertainty.

Decision making is associated with emerging or predicted problems during the functioning and development of a business structure. Problems are inevitable and even beneficial in business because they demonstrate weak spots in the organization and during the decision process, they allow us to identify directions for its development and serve as a source of new entrepreneurial ideas.

In psychology, a problem is defined as the awareness of the impossibility of resolving the difficulties and contradictions that have arisen in a given situation by means of existing knowledge and experience. Although often this “impossibility” can be imaginary. Resolving this contradiction is one of the tasks solved with the help of our proposed technology for developing and making entrepreneurial decisions.

In decision theory, a problem is understood as the difference between the actual and desired state of a decision object. However, in our opinion, we should also necessarily talk about the achievability of the desired state.

The problem can also be considered as a system consisting of contradictions between internal and external environmental factors, manifested in the unsatisfactory set of connections that hinders the achievement of the goal.

The processes of identifying problems and working to eliminate them through the development and adoption of adequate business decisions requires the formation of an appropriate management system for the business structure.

Decision-making by an entrepreneur, as a rule, has a pronounced personal character - this includes an appetite for risk, the presence or absence of special management training, and business experience.

It is also important that an entrepreneur is a relatively independent entity, there is no boss over him, he makes decisions himself and bears personal responsibility for them. While a manager is a hired employee who is responsible to a superior manager or an entrepreneur and can appeal to him when solving problems that arise. That is, entrepreneurial decisions are made by a leader whose management interaction is based on the most effective combination of various sources of power in a particular situation and encouraging people to achieve common goals.

This means that the essential difference, in our opinion, between an entrepreneurial decision and a professional manager’s decision is that an entrepreneur works according to his own goals, based on his own vision of the business, he himself forms a production system and evaluates its results, and the manager implements other people’s goals , works within given limits. In addition, the manager may have goals different from the goals of the entrepreneur, which also affects the implementation of managerial activities.

Thus, in essence, the entrepreneur does not report to anyone, there are no superiors above him, he exercises self-government at his own “peril and risk.” At the same time, the authors note that “control is an external influence that comes into the system in a ready-made form from the outside; in self-government, it is an internal influence generated by the system itself, “folding inside.”

It is self-government that most reflects the difference between an entrepreneurial decision and the decision of a hired manager. This circumstance leaves an imprint on all the managerial actions of the entrepreneur and their content - the entrepreneur is looking for opportunities, and the manager is implementing a specific plan for the functioning and development of the enterprise.

The category “solution” in all its interpretations and understandings is the resolution of a particular problem situation (task) under certain specified conditions and restrictions. Also, a decision is a choice of a certain combination of goals, actions and a method of using available resources.

From the perspective of planning, management, research and economic-mathematical modeling, the concept of “decision” is considered as the choice of one of several alternatives from a set possible options and how the process of making such a choice.

In the context of developing and making entrepreneurial decisions, we use all of the above aspects of a decision. At the same time, given the subject of our research, we focus more on entrepreneurial decisions.

A management decision in an organization, or more precisely, the adoption of a management decision, is an act of a management subject (the head of an organization or a group of decision makers - decision makers), aimed at choosing from several alternative options for the development of an organization one option that ensures the achievement of intended goals at the lowest cost. All management decisions can be divided into traditional and non-traditional. Here we should pay attention to the lack of mention of the processes of formation of many alternative options, the set of criteria for choosing the best one, as well as responsibility for the result.

According to Smirnov E.A. A management decision is a decision made in a social system aimed at strategic planning, implementation of management activities, management by human resourses, production and service activities, formation of the company’s management system (methodology, structure, process, mechanism), management consulting, communications with the external environment. Here, in our opinion, an important element of management activity is missing - incentive. What exactly causes the need to develop and make a decision? In addition, it would be necessary to indicate the role of the subject of management, which is especially important in entrepreneurial activity.

Any classification, including classification of management decisions, is based on the objectives of the study and the position of the researcher. However, there are many similarities in the currently used approaches to typology of solutions.

Currently, a typology of management decisions is used, based on a variety of classification criteria. So L.A. Birman considers the following classification features: the source of the need to make a decision (intuitive, by prescription), the degree of impact on the object and the timing of action (operational, tactical and strategic), the order of adoption (individual, collective, collegial), the method of fixation (written, oral) , degree of repeatability (traditional, original), content (with or without quantitative characteristics), field of adoption (economic, organizational, social and technical), degree of regulation (directive, guiding, recommending), performance assessment system (single-criteria and multi-criteria), decision-making styles (inert, cautious, balanced, risky, impulsive.

Regarding the source of the need to make a decision, in our opinion, we should also add a change in business conditions - external and internal, and among the intuitive ones, the generation and implementation of entrepreneurial ideas occupies a special, specific place.

For entrepreneurial decisions, ultimately, regardless of the order in which the decision is developed, the form of its adoption is individual, since the risk and responsibility lie only with the entrepreneur himself.

In entrepreneurship, the performance assessment system, based on the profit indicator, is at the same time largely subjective, which, however, is an integral attribute of multi-criteria assessment systems, the use of which is inevitable in the management of complex socio-economic systems - business structures.

The decision-making style plays a special role in entrepreneurial decisions due to the importance, and often the prevalence, of the personal factor in this area.

The following classification headings for management decisions are also widely used: sphere of activity; validity period; goals; type of decision maker (DM); uniqueness of management decision; completeness of initial information; degree of validity of the decision; management rank; scale of the solution; object of influence of the decision; formalization method; form of reflection; transmission method.

And here, in most classification criteria, in our opinion, the specificity of the entrepreneurial decision, based on the differences in the actions of the entrepreneur and the hired manager, is quite clearly manifested. Thus, the entrepreneur can independently change the terms of action, in accordance with the change in the situation and his vision of the problem; the goals in full, including their non-formalized components, are known only to him; he himself acts as a decision maker, representing the highest rank of management.

The foregoing can be fully attributed to other approaches to the classification of managerial decisions, for example, in using the criteria: functional content; by the nature of the tasks being solved (scope of action); according to the management hierarchy; by the nature of the development organization; by the nature of the goals; for reasons of occurrence; by initial development methods; according to organizational design, and c - the degree of repetition of the problem, the significance of the goal and the duration of the action, the scope, the duration of implementation, the predicted consequences of the decision, the method of developing the decision, the number of selection criteria, the form of adoption, the method of fixing the decision, the nature of the information used, the grounds for making the decision , place and functions in the management process. We only note that the nature of the development of the solution and the methods used in this process are influenced by the level of managerial training of the entrepreneur, who often does not have the appropriate professional qualifications.

In our opinion, typical tasks solved by entrepreneurs include: risk analysis, search and distribution of resources, results planning, selection of the optimal strategy, analysis of the effectiveness of the chosen strategy, settlement conflict situations both inside the team and outside it, compiling a list of the most significant factors influencing the development of the organization, diagnosing possible scenarios for the development of the situation, identifying dependencies. The main atypical tasks include the following: working on new ways to compete, monitoring and implementing new business ideas, and avoiding uncertainties.

Despite the above-mentioned specifics of entrepreneurial activity and the features of its management, many scientists do not distinguish between the categories of “entrepreneurial decision” and “managerial decision”. Without denying that these concepts correlate quite closely, we consider it necessary to distinguish between these categories - both from theoretical, and especially within the framework of our research from methodological positions.

In this regard, it is necessary to point out that there is a certain interest among scientists in this issue. Let us point out the work of E.A. Gorshkova. , which is based on the provisions of S. Saraswati from the Darden Business School at the University of Virginia (Charlottesville, USA). The author's approach is based on the fact that an entrepreneur and a manager have different thinking styles. The first is opportunistic (from the word opportunity), the second is causal. We consider this approach to be somewhat simplified, especially when applied to an entrepreneur, who is often also a manager at the same time. And for small and medium-sized enterprises this situation is typical. At the same time, we agree that a manager can often appeal to a higher-level manager when solving problems, and the entrepreneur bears the entire burden of responsibility himself. And this means their different attitude towards risk, and performance results in general.

At the same time, one should take into account the opinion of P. Drucker, who said that in modern conditions a manager must have entrepreneurial traits. However, in our opinion, from a practical point of view, the requirement that every entrepreneur be a manager is more relevant, since “... not all successful owners are professional, but almost all professional owners are successful.” Our research is aimed at reducing the severity of this contradiction.

Decision making in entrepreneurship is not a simple choice from available options or alternatives of courses of action that reduce the gap between the present and future desired state of the organization, taking into account risk and uncertainty. The management process certainly includes many different elements: problem identification, goal setting, formation of many alternatives, decision making, use of the entrepreneur’s intuition and logical conclusions. In general, while agreeing with this approach, one should point out its following shortcomings: it is not clear what the development of a decision consists of and how it is made, the specifics of entrepreneurial activity are not adequately reflected, there is no situational differentiation of emerging problems, there is no methodological and instrumental support for the development and decision making.

The decision can be considered as an intellectual product of managerial work, and its development and adoption - as a process of obtaining and processing information, leading to the emergence of this product. Decision making is reflected in all aspects of management, and this process is part of daily work entrepreneur, manager, manager.

Thus, based on the study, we can draw the following conclusions:

1. It is necessary to distinguish between the categories of "managerial decision" and "entrepreneurial decision".

2. Any entrepreneur must have sufficient knowledge of modern management tools.

3. All entrepreneurial decisions have some commonality, therefore it is possible and necessary to build appropriate algorithms and technologies for developing and making entrepreneurial decisions, which will reduce the costs associated with a lack of managerial knowledge and experience among entrepreneurs.

Entrepreneurial decisions, in our opinion, belong to a special category of managerial decisions, which is due to a complex of the following specific circumstances that give them their characteristic features:

- these decisions are always aimed at making a profit, that is, its value is a mandatory criterion sign of the significance of the decision;

- the decision is independent, taken by the entrepreneur, as a rule, in conditions of uncertainty on his own behalf and at his own risk;

- it is generally devoid of contradictions that arise between the manager and the owner, since the latter either combines these two roles, or has an unconditional priority in observing his own interests, if he delegates certain managerial powers to a hired manager, that is, he is always a leader;

- the property liability of the entrepreneur entails the use strategic approach when developing and making decisions;

– the entrepreneur’s personal attitude to risk and business goals;

– the majority of entrepreneurs do not have sufficient professional management training, do not own modern information and analytical tools and do not have extensive management experience;

– often decisions are of a creative, proactive nature, aimed at the formation and implementation of entrepreneurial ideas, which presupposes the mandatory use of a priori methods of analysis and evaluation;

- target settings can be changed by the entrepreneur both during the development and adoption of a decision, and its implementation, not only due to changes in business conditions, but also in connection with the emergence of new entrepreneurial ideas, which corresponds to the strategic nature of the entrepreneurial management style;

– an entrepreneur is both a generator of ideas and is engaged in their implementation.

Let us note that some of these traits, to one degree or another, can sometimes be attributed to a hired manager due to the powers delegated to him by the entrepreneur. However, they are always inherent in an entrepreneurial decision and have a systemic nature, which makes it possible to unambiguously identify this category.

The main action of a mental nature is the entrepreneur making a decision related to the idea under consideration, which can be one of three:

a) start implementing the idea;

b) refuse to use the idea;

c) postpone for a certain period of time (for example, until the time of certain conditions or circumstances, say, until the accumulation of a certain capital) the beginning of the implementation of the idea.

The entrepreneur’s decision-making is carried out on the basis of identified information, economic calculations made and is the result of psychological confidence in the correctness of the available information and in the ability to carry out the actions expected to implement the idea.

Each entrepreneur has a selfish economic interest, which, with any motivation of the entrepreneur, is expressed by the amount of profit. For this reason, self-organization involves identifying potential economic effect implementation of a business idea. If an entrepreneur has several business ideas and needs to choose one of them, the possible results of the implementation of each of the ideas are compared. Therefore, it is advisable for an entrepreneur to compare the desired profit with the expected result at the stage of making an entrepreneurial decision.

The idea is studied by the entrepreneur in terms of its compatibility with the business environment in which it will be implemented. To do this, the business environment is analyzed in conjunction with the business idea, or rather, the business idea and possible forms its implementation within the business environment. The purpose of such an analysis is the need for additional actions that an entrepreneur must take to implement the idea, as well as to determine the principles of his behavior within the business environment, the observance of which will help the effective implementation of the idea.

An entrepreneur most often begins the analysis by identifying those personal characteristics that are required for the effective implementation of an entrepreneur with his specific idea into the surrounding business environment.

First of all, the entrepreneur identifies the form in which the entrepreneurial function associated with the implementation of a specific idea in a specific business environment should be carried out. The set of such forms is small - the entrepreneurial function can be carried out in the form of a so-called lone fighter, i.e. on an individual basis, or in team form, i.e. a group of like-minded people. The choice of form depends on both the idea and the business environment. For example, the idea of ​​creating trading enterprise can be carried out by a “single fighter”, and the idea of ​​​​creating, for example, a structure for assembling computers may require the selection of an appropriate team, since professionals from different directions are needed.

The entrepreneur simultaneously tries to find an answer to the question of how legal the proposed activity for the implementation of the business idea in question is within the framework of such a business environment, and if it turns out that the implementation of the idea involves the use of any prohibited techniques, then he either abandons such an idea or deliberately commits illegal actions. or semi-legal actions.

The entrepreneur also tries to identify the nature of the future strategy of his actions within the business environment with which he would like to integrate through the implementation of a business idea. The nature of the strategy can be defined as aggression, attack, defense.

The entrepreneur is trying to find out what interests are affected when he enters the business space and how the one whose interests are affected can react to this fact.

When comprehending this problem, it is important to identify the risks inherent both in the idea itself and in the process of its implementation in a particular business area. Preliminary identification of risk moments allows the entrepreneur to focus on such risk factors in the future, in the process of implementing the idea, and, possibly, to determine in advance insurance actions that prevent such risks.

Understanding the compatibility of the business sphere and the business idea allows the entrepreneur to model effective tactics entering the business sphere through the implementation of his existing business idea.

Analysis of the business idea and the business environment makes it possible to determine the amount of capital required to implement the idea. The entrepreneur carries out this action through the development of a business plan or a feasibility study (feasibility study).

The entrepreneur reveals the cost of those actions that must be carried out to create necessary conditions in the production of goods, products, services, acting as the basis of a business idea. In this case, we are talking about determining the required amount of initial (or start-up) capital, i.e. those financial investments, without which the process of implementing a business idea is impossible. The entrepreneur identifies the need for the formation of two parts of the initial capital - fixed and circulating.

Fixed capital is financial assets intended for the acquisition (construction or rental) of production space with all the required communications, for the acquisition (purchase or rental) of machines, equipment, as well as other durable objects.

Working capital– a sum of money that will be used to purchase raw materials and everything that is necessary to organize the production cycle, as well as to pay workers, insurance premiums and other mandatory payments.

The entrepreneurial function and the principle of self-organization of the entrepreneur presuppose that he finds the opportunity to involve initial capital in the required amount in the process of implementing the idea.

The implementation of any idea, with some exceptions, presupposes the formation (establishment) of a special productive structure, which involves the organization of internal life activity, carried out in relative isolation from processes occurring outside such a structure. Isolation in this case is indeed relative in nature, because the structure is precisely created to interact with its external environment, since the effectiveness of its functioning (profitability) is manifested only in the external environment. Moreover, any created structure develops under the strong influence of the external environment.

In any country there are legally defined possible organizational and legal forms of created (or transformed) productive structures. The assignment of one or another organizational and legal form to such structures is carried out upon its official registration, which presupposes their public recognition, i.e. society's permission for such a structure to function. At the same time, official registration means that the created structure receives official status, i.e. the rights and responsibilities that she has.

Each organizational and legal form implies different amounts of rights and freedoms. An entrepreneur, at the stage of preparation for the implementation of a business idea, selects the most appropriate organizational and legal form for the official registration of the created productive structure. If there is a need to choose, the entrepreneur must know the relevant sections Civil Code Russian Federation, where the possible forms are indicated in full.

Thus, an enterprise is understood as a productive structure with all its inherent attributes, officially registered and given a specific status.

Managing an enterprise means at a minimum maintaining the productive structure, i.e. the enterprise itself, and, as a maximum, concentration of efforts on the qualitative and/or quantitative increase of such an enterprise or even on making such an enterprise a leader.

The entrepreneur's interest in effectively managing the productive structure forces him to find a way professional management by her. If an entrepreneur creates a structure, then in any case he manages it himself. However, he can, to one degree or another, delegate management authority to a professional manager. However, any delegation option involves the participation of the entrepreneur himself in the management process.

At the stage of understanding the implementation of a business idea, an entrepreneur decides in what form and who will carry out professional management.

Fundamentals of Entrepreneurship, Pereverzev M.P., Luneva A.M., 2009. - 189 p.

Related information.

Efficient work presupposes not only the availability of capital for the entrepreneur, but also the rational disposal of money, material and labor resources for the purpose of making profit. An entrepreneur needs to clearly navigate the current market conditions and make the right decisions. The decision-making process includes the following stages: idea generation; assessing the reality of the idea; carrying out calculations; expert assessment of calculations; final decision making.
The birth of an idea is not an easy process, and although at this stage only General terms investment Money, an entrepreneur must have sufficient understanding of the market to determine possible areas of his activity. First of all, he examines the relationship between supply and demand of a product. Moreover, the entrepreneur is not interested in the consumer’s hypothetical desire to purchase this or that product, but in his readiness to purchase and the possibility of such a purchase.
Real demand depends on the real purchasing power and price of the product. The relationship between supply and demand is easier to determine for goods that are traditionally supplied to the market, for example bread. An entrepreneur must assess demand not only for the current moment, but also for the future.
It is much more difficult to determine the real demand for a product that has not yet been supplied to the market. In this case, demand can significantly outstrip supply. In this situation, it is necessary to predict the period during which the market will become saturated, the product will become obsolete and will no longer meet customer requirements. This is necessary in order to restructure production in time, improve technology or switch to the production of a new product.
The most difficult thing to predict is the demand for consumer goods, since the market for these goods is often influenced by factors that are difficult to predict: fashion, consumer taste, etc.
Demand can be forecast using various methods. We can assume that the demand trend will be influenced by individual factors, for example, changes in the purchasing power of the population. In any case, it is better to draw up several forecast options and develop various programs of practical action. This will give you the opportunity to choose and maneuver.
It is necessary to take into account the existing supply of goods from other manufacturers. This can be done by studying reference and advertising publications, statistical reports, and through personal contacts with entrepreneurs.
Having determined the prospects of the idea and the possible profitability of production, it is necessary to determine the reality of its implementation, based on the available capabilities.
First of all, you should assess the market conditions. It is known that entrepreneurial activity in certain areas of production is characterized by cyclical nature. In this regard, it is important to choose not only the field of entrepreneurial activity, but also the time of its start.
The market situation can change significantly not only in time, but also in space. This is most typical for agriculture, where sharp fluctuations in crop yields are possible in different regions.
The entrepreneur must also establish how monopolized the industry in which he has decided to invest is. It is known that in a monopolized industry it is more difficult to find your niche and not go bankrupt than in a competitive one. At the same time, it is no less difficult to carry out business activities in an industry with very high and fierce competition. This applies, for example, to floriculture: there are high demand for flowers and their numerous offers.
Thus, it is better for an entrepreneur to start activities in industries where one can always find a niche with little risk. To such industries agriculture include grain production, dairy and beef cattle breeding. The priority of the industry should be established taking into account natural-climatic (annual precipitation, soil fertility, etc.) and economic (availability of roads, distance to the nearest railway station, possibility of attracting employees etc.) conditions.
Having determined the priority industry, the entrepreneur must determine to what extent the production of the goods that he decided to supply to the market corresponds to his capabilities: the availability of production resources, technical means, work force, financial resources. He must take into account the possibilities and conditions for the acquisition of raw materials, equipment, other basic and working capital, obtaining bank loans, establishing sales relationships finished products, tax policy of the state. To this end, everything must be done necessary calculations.
An entrepreneur must be able to accurately predict the price of his product. Considering that there is a risk of error in the forecast, the basis for calculations should be not the average price on the market over several years and not the price that prevailed at the time of assessment, but the extremely low one for the given market. In this case, there will be a guarantee that under any conditions the entrepreneur will make a profit. Another factor that influences the profit margin should be taken into account - the entrepreneur’s own expenses. It is advisable to make multivariate calculations of these costs and include the most acceptable option in the business plan.
At the next stage, an expert assessment of the calculations performed should be carried out to determine economic efficiency project, that is, a feasibility study (TES), which gives an idea of ​​the most important indicators, influencing the adoption of entrepreneurial decisions. These include: gross profit, net profit (less taxes), level of profitability, payback period for investments, etc. The feasibility study allows you to find best option carrying out entrepreneurial activity: in what form is it better to carry it out (independently or together with a partner), on what conditions to build relationships with suppliers of raw materials, other resources, etc.
A feasibility study (feasibility study) is the basis for developing a business plan and allows an entrepreneur to convincingly convince partners and investors that his project will allow for effective investment and provide sufficient profit.

Introduction

The scientific foundations of decision-making theory were laid during the Second World War. Its founders are considered to be J. Neumann and O. Morgenstern, who published a book on game theory in 1944. Later, foreign experts made a significant contribution to the development and enrichment of this theory.

Any management activity, including in the field of entrepreneurship, is closely related to the adoption of relevant decisions.

The essence and concept of an entrepreneurial decision

The implementation of an idea adopted by an entrepreneur provides an opportunity to obtain information that allows the entrepreneur to evaluate the consequences associated with the idea. Based on this information, the entrepreneur tries to answer the questions:
- will he be able to take the actions necessary to implement the idea (purchase the necessary equipment, obtain the necessary raw materials, attract qualified personnel for the work, etc.);
- what initial capital will the entrepreneur need to implement the idea, will he be able to obtain it and from what sources;
- Is the calculated profit margin sufficient for him?
As a result of the assessment, the entrepreneur makes one of the following decisions: start implementing the idea; refuse to use the idea; postpone the start of implementation of the idea for a certain period of time.

The entrepreneur’s decision-making is the result of his psychological conviction of the correctness of the available information and the ability to carry out the actions expected to implement the idea.

Analysis of the obtained result serves as a source for identifying new problems and making new decisions, thus renewing the management cycle. This shows that any control represents a well-defined sequence of actions: determining the state of the controlled object (identifying the problem); development of optimal impact for a given state (development and decision-making); solution implementation.

In the process of any activity, situations arise when one person or group of people is faced with the need to choose one of several possible options for action. The result of this choice will be the entrepreneurial decision. Thus, an entrepreneurial decision is a choice of an alternative (the need for choice).

Classification of entrepreneurial decisions

There are a number of general characteristics that allow us to classify entrepreneurial decisions.

1. The degree of recurrence of the problem. Depending on the frequency of occurrence, problems requiring entrepreneurial solutions can be divided into:

- traditional - repeatedly encountered earlier in management practice, when it is only necessary to make a choice from already available alternatives;

- atypical - non-standard solutions, when their search is associated primarily with the search for new alternatives

2. Significance of the goal. Making an entrepreneurial decision can pursue its own, independent goal or be a means to help achieve a higher-order goal.

Accordingly, decisions can be strategic or tactical.

Types of entrepreneurial decisions and technology for making them
Decision-making technology is a special form of entrepreneurial activity, based on the need to select one course of action from possible alternatives by comparing the options with one’s own goals and capabilities.
An entrepreneurial decision can be made on the basis of intuition - intuition in this case means knowledge about the object of the decision plus experience. More often, an entrepreneur, especially a beginner, turns to a real method of decision-making, which is based on logically interrelated reasoning and actions.
1. It is necessary to identify the relationship between the demand for the product of interest to the entrepreneur and its supply on the market. This will make it possible to answer the question: is it worth starting to implement the idea or should you look for other options. If the analysis shows that the demand for a product exceeds supply, production of the product should be undertaken, and vice versa.
2. It is important to find out what an entrepreneur can expect when supplying a product to the market, that is, what price can be expected for the product offered. He can achieve a reduction in the degree of risk if he bases his calculations not on some average price, but on the extremely low price for a given market. If fears are not confirmed in practice, the efficiency of activities will be higher than calculated. If the assumption is confirmed, you can expect to receive the expected effect based on the minimum acceptable degree of risk.
3. The amount of costs associated with the production of the goods should be established. Usually, it is not the average or current costs that are included, but the extremely high costs of producing a product.
4. The possible effect of implementing the idea is revealed if the entrepreneurial decision is made. Any idea can be implemented with varying degrees of effectiveness. It should be taken into account that when making a decision, an entrepreneur does not always strive to achieve the maximum possible result. He usually makes a choice at a level of effect that is acceptable to him, since his decision is based on a comparison of the possible result and the necessary costs. For example, the highest effect can be achieved if the production of goods is fully automated. However, this will require large capital investments, so the entrepreneur may choose an option with a lesser effect, requiring investment in the amount that he has.
5. Making a business decision requires an expert assessment of the information received, consideration of all possible consequences related to the practical implementation of an entrepreneurial idea. Expert assessment makes it possible to continue working on an idea or discard it and move on to thinking about another. Only an innovative idea, studied in detail and assessed at the expert level, can be successfully implemented.
There are a number of stages in decision-making technology.
1. Acceptance for consideration of possible alternatives (projects)
2. Understanding alternatives.
3. Identifying the requirements that must be met to implement each project (the need for specific resources, technologies, financing, etc.) and assessing one’s own capabilities in relation to them.
4. Determination of specific actions necessary for the implementation of the project (form of raising funds, procedure for organizing production, etc.). valuation of these actions.
5. Calculation of the likely economic effect taking into account the worst (pessimistic) possibility of events developing.
6. Compare the economic effects of pessimistic and optimistic options to establish the likely range of the effect.
7. Comparison of projects accepted for consideration based on the entire set of identified qualitative and quantitative characteristics. This stage is technically the most difficult. For example, a project promises the greatest economic benefit, but requires significantly more resources and is more risky. In this case, an expert assessment of the feasibility of the choice is possible.
8. Choosing one of the alternatives – making a decision on its implementation.
Obviously, as the number of initial alternatives increases, the decision-making process becomes more complicated, so it is desirable to reduce them to a minimum. Typically, an experienced entrepreneur leaves two or three alternatives for further consideration.
When making a decision, an entrepreneur does not always strive to achieve the maximum result. He usually settles on an acceptable level of effect. For example, the greatest effect can be achieved if production is fully automated using flexible technologies. However, since this requires large capital investments, the entrepreneur may opt for an option with a lower effect, requiring investment in the amount that he has.

An entrepreneur must make various decisions: organizational, legal, personnel, financial, etc.
Any production organization decision must be linked to the specific type and stage of the production process. Thus, at the stage of preparation of production, an entrepreneur looks for suppliers of the means of production he needs (in agriculture - technical means, petroleum products, mineral fertilizers, feed, plant and animal protection products, etc.), creates reserves for the uninterrupted functioning of production, determines the frequency of supply of resources.
During the production process, decisions on technical, technological, and personnel support are justified and made. At the stage of preparing manufactured products for sale, decisions are made on the most effective and convenient distribution channels from the entrepreneur’s point of view, pre-sale preparation of products, and the formation of the required sizes of product lots. To sell finished products, decisions on organizing sales and marketing activities are justified and made. Similarly, decisions are made on the formation of product, price and financial strategy and etc.
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