Part 1

Master's degree

direction "Management",

program " System management»

direction "Economics"

program " financial planning and control"

Lecturer - Ph.D. in Economics, Associate Professor Shcherba Tamara Andreevna

Kaliningrad

Topic № _1__ “__The concept of strategic analysis. The role of the analytical unit in the strategic management system”

Plan:

1. Place of strategic analysis in the system of strategic management

2. Modern concept strategic analysis

3. Strategic analysis as the basis for the formation of a company's strategy

4. Sources of information for strategic analysis

Study Information on this topic

The strategic management process begins with strategic analysis. Strategic analysis is the basis for assessing the strategic position and the formation of strategic alternatives. The essence of strategic analysis is to identify trends, the nature and dynamics of the external environment, assess the state of the company, assess the state of the company, identify its strengths and weaknesses, assess the degree of impact of risks.

The structure of the basic model of strategic management includes elements of three sections: strategic analysis h, strategic planning, strategy implementation and strategic control

Purpose of strategic management:

• ensuring that the whole company is focused on the key aspect of the strategy: “What are we trying to do and what are we achieving?” , thus defining the vector of development.
• the need for managers to be more responsive to emerging change, new opportunities and threatening trends.
• the ability for managers to evaluate alternative capital investment and staff expansion options, i.e. wisely transfer resources to strategically sound and high-impact projects.

· the ability to combine the decisions of managers at all levels related to the strategy.

• creating an environment conducive to development and counteracting trends that can only lead to a passive response to changing situations.

The study of different views on the company's strategy made it possible to single out the most preferable one given by M. Porter:

“The essence of strategy is the ability to choose what should be abandoned. If there were no alternative, there would be no need for a strategy. Good idea will be quickly copied by competitors. Again, the profit will depend on the operating efficiency of the company. The choice of strategy comes down to the choice of points of growth and competitive advantage».

The purpose of strategic analysis is an objective assessment of strategic alternatives and the choice of "growth points" based on an analysis of the external and internal environment.

Purpose of strategic analysis- to form a reliable opinion about:

¾ what is the company as an economic entity, how it functions and is managed, what are the results of its activities and how they are formed, what are the strengths and weaknesses at the moment;

¾ what external factors influence the development of the company as a system, what

the mechanism of their impact, how these factors are manifested and measured, what are the trends of their change in the future.

Conceptually, the process of strategic analysis is presented in Figure 1.

Figure 1- Strategic Analysis Process

The initial stage is the formulation of strategic initiatives. Strategic Initiatives are the intentions of the owners and top management regarding the key idea and business model, vision and mission, strategic goals and objectives. In terms of strategic alternatives, owners and managers express their intentions, wishes and requirements for the future state of the company. Strategic initiatives are characterized by:

¾ ambitious ideas;

¾ the scope of activities and structure of the company;

¾ predetermining influence on performance results.

Examples of strategic initiatives include:

¾ changing the key idea of ​​the business;

¾ improvement of the business model;

¾ mergers or acquisitions, sale of part of the business;

¾ attraction of strategic partners, etc.

The main stages of strategic analysis:

1. Analysis of the internal environment- is the process of evaluating the company's activities for a certain period of time in functional areas, the purpose of which is to form a reliable opinion about what the company is like, how it functions and is managed, what opportunities and problems it has at the moment.
2. Analysis external environment - this is the process of determining the state and key factors, identifying trends in their change and assessing the degree of influence on the company's activities, the purpose of which is to identify opportunities and threats from the outside based on an assessment of the competitive and macro environment.
3. Analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats– SWOT analysis, the results of which make it possible to form a field of strategic alternatives and evaluate each of them from the standpoint of strengthening the company's competitiveness.
4. risk analysis, which is necessary to understand the degree of exposure of the company to the influence of uncertain external factors. The essence of this stage of the analysis is to identify risks, determine the factors that cause them, and identify the likely consequences of their occurrence.

The results of strategic analysis make it possible to form a reliable and complete picture of what is happening inside and outside the company, its competitive advantages and disadvantages, development opportunities and threats, and the degree of riskiness of strategic alternatives. Each alternative eventually gets a characteristic in the following aspects:

¾ areas of development: portfolio of strategic business units, product line, target groups clients;

¾ essence of development: business model, business concentration or diversification, competitive advantages, development priorities;

¾ strengths and weaknesses of the company, development opportunities and threats;

¾ sources of development: growth of own and borrowed capital, mergers and acquisitions, strategic alliances, restructuring;

¾ assessment of risks and the degree of their impact on the development of the company;

¾ compliance of the strategic alternative with the strategic initiatives and expectations of owners and managers.

Based on the results of the analysis, decisions can be made on the choice of strategic alternatives, which is the basis of goal setting.

Table 1 presents a matrix of combining strategic analysis techniques with the stages of developing a company's strategy.

Table 1 - The use of strategic analysis techniques in the process of developing a strategy

Effective implementation of a strategic analysis of the external and internal environment of the company is impossible without a well-functioning systems information support . IN general view information sources are divided into external and internal. To external sources include legislative and regulations, statistical data, periodicals, economic literature, evaluation by independent experts, information about the markets, etc. TO internal sources include accounting and management accounting and reporting data, founding documents, technical documentation, audit reports, etc.

A comparative assessment of information sources for strategic analysis is given in Table 2.

Table 2 - Sources of information for strategic analysis

Of particular importance among sources of external information are the results of research and forecasts of independent experts specializing in a particular industry.

Questions for self-control

1. Determine the place of strategic analysis in common system strategic management.
2. What are strategic initiatives?
3. What are the stages of strategic analysis?
4. What are the main methods of strategic analysis. How do they relate to the stages of strategy development?
5. What sources of information do you know for strategic analysis? Describe them.

It is a means of transforming the database resulting from the analysis of the environment into the strategic plan of the organization. Strategic analysis tools include formal models, quantitative methods, analysis that takes into account the specifics of the organization.

Strategic analysis can be divided into two main steps:

1. Comparison of the benchmarks set by the firm and the real opportunities offered by the environment, analysis of the gap between them;

2. analysis options future of the firm, identification of strategic alternatives.

When strategic alternatives are identified, the firm moves to the final stage of strategy development - choosing a specific strategy option and preparing strategic plan.

Gap Analysis

Gap analysis - simple but effective method and analysis. Its purpose is to determine whether there is a gap between the firm's goals and its capabilities and, if so, how to "fill" it.

Gap Analysis Algorithm:

Definition of the firm's core interest, expressed in terms of strategic planning(for example, in increasing the number of sales);

Finding out the real possibilities of the company in terms of the current state of the environment and the expected future state (in 3, 5 years);

Determination of specific indicators of the strategic plan, corresponding to the main interest of the company;

Establishing the difference between the indicators of the strategic plan and the opportunities dictated by the real situation of the company;

Development of special programs and methods of action necessary to fill the gap.

Another way to apply gap analysis is to determine the difference between the highest expectations and the most modest forecasts. For example, if top management expects a real rate of return on capital employed of 20%, but analysis shows that 15% is the most realistic, discussion and action is required to close the 5% gap.

Filling can be done in several ways, for example:

By increasing productivity and achieving the desired 20%;

By abandoning more ambitious plans in favor of 15%;

The following methods of strategic analysis are usually used to identify strategic alternatives, possible options for a strategic plan.

Cost Dynamics Analysis and Experience Curve

One of the classic strategy models was developed in 1926. It links the definition of strategy to the achievement of cost advantages.

The reduction in costs with an increase in production volume is due to a combination of the following factors:

1. advantages in technology that arise with the expansion of production;

2. learning by experience most effective way organization of production;

3. economies of scale effect.

According to the experience curve, the main direction of the firm's strategy should be to gain the largest market share, since it is the largest of the competitors who has the opportunity to achieve the lowest unit costs and, therefore, the highest profits.

The application of the experience curve is possible in the branches of material production.

In modern conditions, the achievement of cost leadership is not necessarily associated with an increase in the scale of production. The current high-tech equipment is designed not only for large-scale production, but also for small ones. Today, even a small firm can use computers, modular equipment that provides high performance and the ability to reconfigure to solve various specific problems. The main disadvantage of the model is that it takes into account only one of the internal problems of the organization and inattention to the external environment (primarily to the needs of customers).

Analysis of market dynamics, life cycle model

The analysis of the dynamics of the market for a given product is based on the well-known model of the life cycle of a product, which is an analogy of the life cycle of a biological being.

The life of a product on the market is divided into several main stages, each of which has its own level of sales and other marketing characteristics:

• birth and introduction to the market - small sales and growth-oriented strategy;
• growth stage - a significant increase in sales and a strategy for rapid growth;
• maturity stage - sustainable sales and stability-oriented strategy;
• stage of market saturation and decline - sales decline and reduction strategy.

The purpose of the life cycle model is to correctly determine the business strategy for each stage of the product's life on the market. Exists a large number of modifications of life cycles depending on the types of goods. However, the strategy should not be tied too tightly to the life cycle model.

Experience curve and life cycle models are the most simple methods strategic analysis, since they associate the development of a strategy with only one of the factors of the company's activity. The methods described below are more complex and follow the path of linking the various components of the internal and external environment of the organization.

Model "product - market"

Suggested by A.J. Steiner in 1975. It is a matrix that includes the classification of markets and the classification of products into existing, new, but related to existing, and completely new products.

Rice. 1. Matrix "market-product"

The matrix shows the levels of risk and, accordingly, the degree of probability of success for various market-product combinations. The model is used for:

1. determining the probability of successful activity when choosing a particular type of business;

2. choose between various types business, including when determining the ratio of investments for different business units, that is, when forming a portfolio valuable papers firms.

Portfolio Strategy Analysis Models

Portfolio models determine the present and future position of the business in terms of the attractiveness of the market and the ability of the business to compete within it. The original, classic portfolio model is the BCG (Boston Consulting Group) matrix.

The matrix indicates four main business positions:

1. highly competitive business in fast growing markets - ideal "star" position;

2. A highly competitive business in mature, saturated, stagnant markets (which produce steady profits, "cash cows" or "money bags") is a good source of cash for the firm;

3. not having good competitive positions, but operating in promising markets "question marks", whose future is uncertain;

About the combination of weak competitive positions with markets that are in a state of stagnation - "dogs" - outcasts of the business world.

The BCG model is used:

To determine interrelated conclusions about the position of the business unit (business) that is part of the organization, and its strategic prospects;

Using the BCG matrix, the company forms the composition of its portfolio (that is, it determines the combination of capital investments in various industries, various business units).

Within the framework of the BCG matrix, strategy options can be proposed:

1. Growth and increase in market share - the transformation of the "question mark" into a "star" (aggressive "question marks" are sometimes called "wild cats").

2. Maintaining market share is a strategy for cash cows whose revenues are important for growing businesses and financial innovation.

3. "Harvesting", that is, obtaining a short-term share of the profits as much as possible, even at the expense of reducing market share - a strategy for weak "cows", deprived of the future, unfortunate "question marks" and "dogs".

4. Liquidation or abandonment of the business and the use of the resulting funds in other industries - a strategy for "dogs" and "question marks" who do not have more opportunities to invest to improve their positions.

The BCG model has the following advantages and disadvantages:

Advantages:

The model is used to study the relationship between the business units that make up the organization, as well as their long-term goals;

The model can be the basis for the analysis of different stages of development of a business unit (business);

It is a simple, easy-to-understand approach to organizing an organization's business portfolio (security portfolio).

Flaws:

Does not always correctly assess business opportunities. For a unit defined as "dog", it may recommend exit from the market, while external and internal changes are able to change the position of the business. Yes, small farming, supplying vegetable products, in the 70s could be assessed as a "dog", but by the 90s, environmental degradation and a special attitude towards "clean" products created new prospects for this business;

Overly focused on cash flow, while investment performance is equally important to the organization. Aimed at super growth and ignores the possibility of business recovery, application of the best management methods.

A more complex version of the portfolio model is the McKinsey multi-factor matrix of the company that is developing it by order of General Electric.

Evaluation of the multi-profile portfolio model:

Its advantage over the simple portfolio model is that it takes into account the largest number of significant factors internal and external environment of the company;

In the application of this model, there are limitations, which include the lack of specific recommendations for behavior in a particular market, as well as the possibility of a subjective, distorted assessment by the firm of its position.

Source - I.A. PODELINSKAYA, M.V. BYANKIN STRATEGIC PLANNING Tutorial. - Ulan-Ude: Publishing House of the ESGTU, 2005. - 55 p.

Economic and mathematical methods and models

UDC 65.012.123

HER. Abushova, S.B. Suloeva

METHODS AND MODELS OF MODERN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

E.E. Abushova, S.B. Suloeva METHODS AND MODELS OF MODERN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

The main definitions are considered and methods and models are proposed that can be used in the system of modern strategic analysis.

ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS; MACRO ENVIRONMENT; MICRO ENVIRONMENT; INTERNAL ENVIRONMENT; STRATEGIC DECISIONS; PORTER MODEL.

In this article the basic definitions are considered and methods and models are proposed that can be used in the system of contemporary strategic analysis.

ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT; MACRO ENVIRONMENT; MICRO ENVIRONMENT; INTERNAL ENVIRONMENT; STRATEGIC DECISION; MODEL OF PORTER.

In today's market conditions, dynamically changing environment, fierce competition and unpredictability of economic actions of subjects of market relations, the solution of only current problems becomes ineffective for the enterprise. More and more relevant are issues related to the strategic development of the enterprise and the adoption of strategic management decisions. For the correct choice and adoption of strategic management decisions, the development of an effective enterprise strategy and leveling the negative impact of environmental factors, it is necessary to have sufficient “necessary information in right time". In this regard, the conduct of a strategic analysis is now becoming simply necessary.

With what methods and models is it preferable to conduct a strategic analysis in order to comprehensively assess the factors of the external and internal environment that affect the activities of the enterprise, identify key success factors and adopt effective

management decisions on the choice of strategy - the solution of these issues and ask ourselves in this article.

Review modern methods. Strategic environmental analysis is the initial process of strategic management that provides the basis for defining the mission, goals of the firm and developing strategy. Analysis of the environment involves the study of its three components: macroenvironment, microenvironment and the internal environment of the organization. The analysis of the macro- and microenvironment is aimed at identifying the opportunities and threats of the external environment. The result of the analysis is the identification of key success factors.

Key success factors (KSF) are controlled variables common to all enterprises in the industry, the implementation of which makes it possible to improve the competitive position of the enterprise in the industry. The key success factors may include consumer properties of the product, experience and knowledge, competitive opportunities, success in the market, as well as specific areas of the enterprise, allowing it to

successfully compete with competitors and achieve success. In the process of strategic analysis, the KFU of this industry are first identified, after which measures are developed to master the most important of them in order to succeed in this field of activity.

An analysis of the internal environment reveals those opportunities, the potential that a company can count on in the competition in the process of achieving its goals, as well as the weaknesses of the organization. As a result, the company's core business capabilities or core competencies should be identified.

Competence - the properties that all or most enterprises in the industry possess, necessary for participation or survival in it. Competencies include skills, technology, know-how, etc.

Core competence - key properties specific to a particular enterprise, unique or at least rare, difficult to copy, which are the main reason for competitive advantage. Unlike physical assets, core competencies are not destroyed when used or shared, but are developed.

Thanks to its core competencies, the company has the ability to produce products that customers value more than competitors' products. This is achieved through better knowledge, possession of information, the availability of skills that surpass the skills of competitors, the use the latest technologies, the presence of appropriate relationships between structural divisions, networks created by the company and gained reputation .

Strategic analysis is expressed in the procedure for searching and selecting strategic alternatives. According to the prevailing ideas, strategic analysis aims to find the most stable patterns and trends in each process that can play a role in the future, and to forecast indicators of production and economic activity based on them. The most important tasks of strategic analysis are the justification of the

strategic plans, assessment of their expected implementation, as well as providing information for making strategic management decisions.

As a result of the analysis of the activity, the enterprise needs to find out what position it is in, as well as how achievable the strategic goals will be. Since it is about strategic goals, then the focus is on the external conditions of activity, namely, first of all, an analysis is made of the attractiveness of the external environment, the behavior of competitors and consumers.

External review should be performed at the level of the organization as a whole. Carrying out such diagnostics at the highest corporate level not only avoids duplication of work, but also helps ensure that strategic decisions at all levels of the organization are made based on the same vision of the outside world.

Internal strategic analysis should be carried out at the level where control over the resources of the company is exercised, and where decisions are actually made about their effective use.

The main purpose of diagnosing the current situation is to identify constraints and opportunities that need to be taken into account when planning for the future. For this purpose, the analysis of the past situation is of little value. Information is needed about the current moment and about likely changes during the period indicated by the planning horizon. It is also important that the situation is assessed in the context of competitive relations.

The external environment is a set of external subjects and factors that actively influence the position, prospects and effectiveness of the organization. The external environment of the enterprise is usually divided into macro and micro environment.

The macro environment includes socio-demographic, technological, economic and political factors. The nature of these factors is such that companies are unable to influence them. There is no need to analyze every facet of the macro environment.

Moreover, it is impossible to do it in full. Therefore, in real life the area of ​​interest for organizations narrows down to the “meaningful external macro environment”. A meaningful macro environment defines the boundaries of the general environment in terms of analytical purposes. They are based on key aspects that significantly affect a particular organization. Therefore, under the macroenvironment we mean its significant part.

The microenvironment is the environment that directly surrounds the company, i.e. those areas with which the organization interacts or which it itself influences. The microenvironment contains competitors, suppliers, customers of the company, as well as the resources necessary for the successful operation of organizations.

The internal environment of the enterprise - a set of characteristics of the organization and internal actors that affect the position and prospects of the company.

To analyze and predict the development of the macro environment, we recommend using PEST (STEP) - analysis, the purpose of which is to track (monitor) changes in the macro environment in four key areas: P - Political (political and legal), E - Economic (economic), S - Sociocultural (social -cultural), T - Technologcalforces (technological) and identifying trends, events that are not under the control of the enterprise, but that affect the results of strategic decisions.

Caution should be exercised when analyzing the macro environment, as the macro environment is by its very nature a very complex phenomenon. The speed at which changes occur in it is constantly increasing, and changes are turbulent and often unpredictable. Therefore, when analyzing the macro environment, we recommend:

Take into account the limitations and inaccuracies of the analysis;

Conduct analysis on a regular basis;

Constantly update sources of information and improve analysis techniques;

Use information in conjunction with other data.

For the analysis of the microenvironment, the five-factor model of Porter or the resource model is most often used.

At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the resource model is more complex than the Porter model, but it allows you to get a more complete picture of the analysis, understand the nature of competition within the industry and markets, assess the threat posed by competitors operating in other industries, assess your potential for new industries and markets.

The disadvantages of Porter's model include the following:

Internal and external analysis in interaction are not considered;

Companies are assumed to be competitive and non-cooperative;

More attention is paid to the markets for goods and services than to those markets in which the firm acquires resources;

It is not recognized that companies, as a result of their activities, by strengthening their competencies and creating new ones, can change their own competitive environment;

It does not take into account the fact that firms operating outside the industry and market of the organization under consideration can pose a significant competitive threat if they have similar core competencies and distinctive features;

It is not taken into account that strengthening existing and creating new competencies can allow a company to become competitive outside its existing markets;

The five factors are assumed to have the same effect on all competitors in the industry. In fact, the strength of the factors is different for different firms. The model implies that if, for example, the possibilities of suppliers are large, then this situation will be true for all firms in the industry. In fact, supplier opportunities may vary for companies in the industry. Large firms will be exposed to less supplier risk than smaller firms. Firms with well-known trademarks will be less affected by buyers and substitute products than firms with less well-known brands;

Commodities and resource markets are inadequately described. Purchasing power and supplier power refers to the markets in which firms sell

their goods and receive resources. However, the conditions for both types of markets are somewhat more complex than Porter's model implies.

We recommend that you carry out internal analysis using the value chain according to M. Porter. The value chain is single system main and auxiliary activities of an organization that seeks to increase the consumer value of the product and at the same time to reduce its own costs due to the best organization all processes and internal activities in the enterprise. In addition, the value chain also focuses on the processes taking place outside the firm, i.e., each firm is considered in the context of a common chain of activities that create value (value).

1. Analysis of production and economic activities.

2. Analysis property complex enterprises

3. The financial analysis enterprise activities.

Additionally, when analyzing the internal environment of an enterprise, the following methods can be used:

situational analysis;

Desk research (work with accounting documents, statistical and other internal company information);

Observations and surveys of employees of the enterprise using special methods (diagnostic interviews);

Methods teamwork("brainstorming", conferences, etc.);

Expert assessments;

Mathematical Methods(trend analysis, factor analysis, calculation of averages, calculation of special coefficients).

One of the main methods used to study the environment and recommended for strategic analysis is SWOT analysis. The informational value of the results of a SWOT analysis depends primarily on the ability of analysts to give the evaluated criteria the right estimates and the creativity of the planning team.

To assess competitive positions, we recommend drawing up maps of strategic groups. A strategic group of competitors is a set of competing firms in a particular industry that have common features. Such features can be similar competition strategies, identical market positions, similar products, distribution channels, service and other elements of marketing.

To summarize the results of the work on the analysis strategic factors macro- and microenvironments, it is recommended to use a special form "Summary of the analysis of external strategic factors" (External Strategic Factors Analysis Summary - EFAS). This form allows not only to reveal threats and opportunities, but to evaluate them in terms of the importance for the organization of taking into account each of the identified threats and opportunities in the strategy of its behavior.

Thus, as a result of solving the problem, those areas of the business and its external environment that are critically important for the implementation of the goals and objectives of the organization are identified. Further, on the basis of the information received, the key success factors and core competencies of the enterprise are identified, since in accordance with them the choice of strategy takes place in the future.

All of the above allows you to get a fairly clear idea of ​​the strengths and weaknesses activities of the enterprise, about the opportunities and threats of the external environment. But in addition to this, in order to obtain a complete picture of the analysis of the enterprise’s activities, as well as for the further development of a strategy, it is necessary to determine not only the identified “symptoms”, but also their sources and specific causes. To do this, we recommend using the "Ishikawa" diagram in combination with "why-analysis" and "how-analysis".

For the effective use of this tool, we propose to create a working group, which will include both managers involved in the development of the strategy, and specialists in strategic management accounting for the mutual exchange of information during the " brainstorming". Working with a diagram resembling the skeleton of a fish boils down to the following: the problem to be solved is written on the right, and on the ends of the branches -

specific consequences that the organization faces. To the left, the main groups of causes are distinguished, and even further - the causes themselves that cause the problems under study (Fig. 1). To identify the causes leading to the appearance of the effect, we use the technique of "why - analysis". Its essence lies in the fact that at each stage it is necessary to raise the question "why?" to each factor until the relationship of causes is clarified. Similar to the “why-analysis”, a “how-analysis” is carried out to obtain an appropriate answer to the question of achieving the planned state, which can become a specific recommendation for action. Then, among all the problems, the main ones are singled out, the resolution of which can form the basis of the developed strategy.

When applying the proposed tool, it is impossible to formulate what information is needed, because in each specific case there will be various problems, their causes and, accordingly, various recommendations. However, in our opinion, the information obtained in the course of conducting a strategic analysis of the enterprise's operating environment will be sufficient to use a set of these tools.

Further, we propose to modify the classical Porter model to the model of seven forces of competition (Fig. 2), modified to describe the maximum of parameters acting on the firm in the long run to reflect the relationship between supply and demand.

The elements of the schema are:

1. The fight against direct competitors (or the central ring of competition), the nature of which is determined by the intensity, specific forms competition and the degree of interdependence of rivals.

2. Parameters of demand. Demand is characterized by buyers with a set of benefits and needs. A firm achieves a competitive advantage in demand if it is able to serve the largest share of the absolute market potential.

3. Factors of production - labor resources(number, qualification and cost work force), physical resources (quantity, quality, availability and cost of land, forest resources, etc.), climatic resources, geographical location, financial resources, knowledge resource (sum of scientific, technical and market information), infrastructure (type, quality available infrastructure and fees for using it).

4. Technologies and means of production. Technological change is the most dynamic of the seven forces of competition, since a more advanced technology over time replaces the technology that dominates at the moment, and this is the basis for asserting the existence of a product life cycle and competitive advantage due to the emergence, growth, gradual saturation of a derivative need and its decline due to the change of technologies.

Consequence Consequence

Rice. 1. Ishikawa Diagram

Threat of lack of consumers

Threat of adverse influence

Influence groups

Technology and means of production

The threat of new technologies

Competitors in the business area

Rivalry between direct competitors

The threat of the emergence of substitute products;

threat of lack of complementary goods

Related and supporting SPs

Rice. 2. Model of the seven forces of competition

5. Potential competitors and their strategies. It is a threat that the firm must strive to reduce and against which it must protect itself by creating barriers to entry.

6. Groups of influence (GV) - contact audiences that can put pressure on the organization both in the direction of expanding activities and changing it, and even force them to abandon it.

7. Related and supporting business zones (ZX) - zones in which firms can interact with each other in the process of forming a value chain, as well as zones dealing with complementary products.

8. Random events - processes that the company's management cannot predict and manage. These are natural changes, force majeure circumstances,

the role of the human factor, unpredictable changes in supply and demand, etc.

Such a scheme is, in our opinion, the most acceptable, since it takes into account all the factors that operate both in the short term and long term and is consistent with generally accepted competition rules. IN short term it comes down to rivalry in the field of supply between direct competitors, since the role of supporting and related industries is reduced to the threat of the influence of products and brands of substitutes; the role of production factors is reduced to the threat of losing suppliers or increasing prices for the supplied resources; the influence of the organization on demand is reduced only to pricing policy, technology and means of production, the role of government and GW remain constant; fight against potential competitors

tami comes down only to the establishment of entry barriers to the SZH. Thus, the competitive struggle model is reduced to Porter's simple scheme of industry competition. If we consider competition between countries, then we reach the macroeconomic level, at which the role of the government is only influencing, not decisive, since competition between countries depends primarily on their economic development. The role of technology and means of production can be attributed to random factors, since they are created not by the country, but by the subjects operating within it. As characteristics of other determinants (demand, factors of production, related and supporting industries, competitors and their strategies), aggregated macroeconomic variables are considered. Considering the scheme of the seven forces of competition for an enterprise, the researcher understands the main difficulty in building theories of competition, especially in the long run - the close interconnection and interdependence of all components. The scheme of seven forces is a system, the components of which are in numerous connections, partly determined, and partly stochastic.

The choice of strategy is quite difficult decision on which the further work of the entire enterprise largely depends. Therefore, as a result of strategic analysis, we must obtain information that is clear, objective, timely and allows not only to choose a strategic alternative, but also to be able to correct it in the future. We propose to use not only separately existing tools, models and methods, but also their combinations. So, we recommend for use a set of tools, which we will call the "matrix kit".

The algorithm for using the "matrix set" is shown in Fig. 3.

Based on the information obtained during the strategic analysis of the company's activities, we compile the traditional BCG matrix. This requires data on the market growth rate (GRTav), as well as the relative market share (RSH) of each strategic area of ​​the economy.

vovanie (SZH). For convenience, we depict each SZH as a circle, the diameter of which will be proportional, for example, to revenue. You will get a scatter diagram that will allow you to get a fairly complete picture of the position of the company.

At the second step, we build a modified BCG matrix, which allows, on the one hand, to preserve the main advantages of the traditional model, including simplicity of visual perception and familiar terminology, and on the other hand, to use quantitative information in its construction, which is absolutely always available, accurate, reliable and minimal. by cost, i.e. internal information of the enterprise.

As a characteristic of each product group (horizontal axis of the modified matrix), the parameter K is proposed - " specific gravity SZH in the total sales of the enterprise "during the base period (the most typical period is 1 year).

As the second characteristic of the product group (the vertical axis of the matrix), the parameter T is proposed - "the share of SZH in the rate of change in the sales volume of the enterprise" during the base period along a linear or any other trend.

The next step is to identify trends in relative market share. This is necessary in order to assess for the considered SBAs in which direction they “move” along the BCG matrix for a more accurate choice of strategy. We propose to break this step into two parts and build two matrices that focus on different factors. Thus, the Growth / Growth matrix focuses on the market and demand, while the value map pays more attention to the analysis of buyers and competitors. In addition, the "Growth / Growth" matrix allows you to identify the trend in the change in the ODR at the present time, and the value map - in the future.

The Growth/Growth matrix compares the growth trends observed in the market as a whole with the dynamics of the company's growth, production growth certain product company or a specific SBA.

INFORMATION DATABASE FOR STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

I. Traditional WSO matria

II. Modified matria BSO

SNF, - >7)

[k,™) (kg ]

III.I. Matria "Growth / Growth-

1dr - DRsch / No) if

III,II. value map

VI Complex matrix BCv

Goals, tasks

Choosing a strategic alternative

SZH y * 3 * dug ODR

V. Reflection of cesium, tasks

Current forecast

SZH SNF ODR

IV. Forecast ttdeniy......

Rice. 3. Algorithm for using the matrix kit

To build the matrix, information is required on the market growth rate, on the revenue growth rate (the K parameter is calculated, as when constructing the modified BCG matrix), the size of the SZH area (which was also calculated when constructing the BCG matrices). The result is a picture, analyzing which we can draw the following conclusions:

If the business grew from more high speed than the market, during recent years, it will be a circle located to the right below the diagonal line;

If the business grew at the same rate as the market, then the center of the circle would be on the diagonal;

If the business grew more slowly than the market as a whole, then the circles will be located on the left above the diagonal.

where 1dr r is the index of change in market share,

taking into account market influence; GRTg - market growth rate on the z-th SZH.

If the index value is greater than 1, the SBA increases the market share, if the index is less than 1, the SBA loses the market share, if the index is 1, the SBA retains the market share.

As already mentioned, in order to predict the trend of changes in the ODR in the future, we have developed a method that should help determine whether it is worth increasing the market share using an aggressive strategy, or if the achieved market share of a given product should be stopped and expanded only through the manufacture of modified products. In other words, is our market share “deserved”, or is our share much smaller?

First, a value map is built to determine a “fair” market share based on data on competitive advantage each z-th SBA at the price (^CP), data on the competitive advantage of each z-th SBA

by quality). The latter may be

found based on the values ​​of the customer satisfaction index (1y k). However, unlike a similar indicator used at the stage of strategic analysis, the index should be interpreted, firstly, for each z-th SBA, and not for the enterprise as a whole, and secondly, when choosing assessment factors, the emphasis should be on the quality .

It is the price and quality criteria that were chosen to build the matrix, since they are the main ones when buying a product. Therefore, in order to determine a fair market share, we must look to the opinion of the buyers so that the assessment is objective and reflects everything that affects the purchase of this product.

A value map is built for each SZH separately. All major competitors must be considered. The indicators of price (Pc) and quality (QC) of all competing enterprises are evaluated on a ten-point scale. Further, SZH of all firms are plotted on the coordinate grid of the graph (Fig. 4). The diagonal line in the figure is the line of correspondence between price and quality.

The niche that we will choose will be limited by the income of the consumer, on the graph this corresponds to the assessment of the price of the goods. The buyer we are looking at will definitely not buy a cheap low quality item or an overpriced item. Therefore, all products that fall outside the niche are not considered as competitors, since our consumer will not buy them anyway. In the figure, these are goods B and 0.

In addition, the niche could be limited by the line of technology, since the basis of quality is determined by the manufacturing technology, and it is almost the same for similar products of our companies. Firms with very high technologies sell products at a high price, which does not correspond to the income of our consumers.

But in this model there is a condition that products with very high quality can be cheap, and therefore there are no restrictions on quality, and all competitors strive for maximum customer satisfaction and minimum prices. They tend to hit some ideal area in the upper left corner.

Quality (OK)

Yainim tknmvgsh 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 / 10 9 in 7 6 5 4

Rice. 4. Value Map

All goods that fall on the same line running parallel to the diagonal are equally competitive.

In order to determine the "fair" market share, let's number the x-axis in reverse order from 10 to 1:

Osh \u003d 11 - Ots,

DRsp IC = DGg

DR£ DRReal

where Оц, is the modified estimate of the price of the product

SZH of the 1st enterprise;

Ots; - evaluation of the price of the SZH product of the th enterprise.

The position of each point (П,) is defined as the sum of the abscissa and ordinate axes:

P \u003d Ok, + ots, \u003d Ok, + (11 - Ots,), (3)

where P, is the position of the SZH of the th enterprise; Ok, - evaluation of the quality of the product SZH, the th enterprise.

Let us determine the “fair” market share of each SZH using the formula

where DR^pr is the "fair" market share of SZH, the th enterprise.

where IdPr is the market share change index, taking into account the influence of customers and competitors; DR™r - "fair" market share £th

SZH enterprises; DRreal - real share

market z-th SZH enterprises.

If the index value is greater than 1, the company will be successful, increasing its market share. Conversely, if the indicator is less than 1, then without targeted actions, the market share of this SBA will tend to decrease.

The next step is to forecast development trends. In other words, on the basis of the identified trends and analysis of the situation, it is necessary to assess how the current situation of the SBA will change without the targeted efforts of the enterprise on them. Forecast of change in market growth rates (OKTau) has already been obtained in the course of strategic analysis

Analytical model of strategic analysis

Stage of strategic analysis Forms of presentation of information Tools used

Collection, accounting and analysis of information about the macro environment Graphs, tables STER-analysis

Collection, accounting and analysis of information about the microenvironment Graphs, tables Resource model, model of the five forces of competition, improved model of the seven forces of competition, "matrix kit"

Collection, recording and analysis of information about the internal environment Graphs, tables Value chain, situational analysis, desk research, etc.

Generalization and comprehensive presentation of analysis information Profile of the enterprise environment, modified profile, map of strategic groups, EBAZ form, matrices of opportunities and threats SWOT analysis, benchmarking, mapping of strategic groups

Identification of the causes of events identified in the previous step Ishikawa diagram Compilation of the Ishikawa diagram

enterprise activities. Also, the trend of changing the market share of SZH for today (1DRg) and in the future (ICRg) was determined. Further based on the forecast

we graphically depict on the BSO matrix the “shift” of the SZH.

Information about goals, quantified in tasks, usually obtained at the goal-setting stage, is reflected in the SSR matrix to visualize “what we want to achieve” for each SBA.

Combining all of the above in one complex SSR matrix, we provide the obtained data to managers for the preliminary selection of strategic alternatives for each SBA.

Using the proposed set of strategic analysis methods will allow you to select preliminary strategies.

In conclusion, summarizing all of the above, we offer in tabular form an analytical model of strategic analysis, including a set possible forms presentation of information and a set of tools that regulate at what stages of strategic analysis which existing or improved models are recommended to be used.

So, we have considered and proposed for use in the system of strategic analysis various methods and models, both existing and improved and developed by us, that meet the requirements modern conditions activities of enterprises, aimed at solving specific problems of strategic management, providing the ability to adapt the enterprise to changes in the conditions of the external and internal environment.

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ABUSHOVA Ekaterina Evgenievna - Associate Professor of the Department of Economics and Management in Mechanical Engineering, St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor.

195251, st. Politekhnicheskaya, 29, St. Petersburg, Russia. Email: [email protected]

ABUSHOVA Ekaterina E. - St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University.

195251 Politechnicheskaya str. 29.St. Petersburg. Russia. Email: [email protected]

SULOEVA Svetlana Borisovna - Professor of the Department of Economics and Management in Mechanical Engineering, St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University, Doctor of Economics, Professor.

195251, st. Politekhnicheskaya, 29, St. Petersburg, Russia. Email: [email protected]

SULOEVA Svetlana B. - St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University.

195251 Politechnicheskaya str. 29.St. Petersburg. Russia. Email: [email protected]

© St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University, 2014