Decision-making criteria and their scales

From the scheme of the decision justification process shown in fig. 1.5, it can be seen that this process ends with the phase of evaluation of alternatives. It is within this phase that the measuring principle . At the same time, two interrelated issues are solved almost inseparably, simultaneously: the development (formation) of a criterion and the receipt of criteria estimates for each of the set of feasible alternatives formed by the decision maker.

Criterion (goal function, indicator) is a special function defined in nominal , numerical or quantitative scale, the domain of which is many alternatives .

The criterion is intended to measure the degree of effectiveness (contribution, usefulness or value) of each alternative in relation to achieving the goal of the operation. The values ​​that this function takes are called criterion estimates .

Measurement is the process of assigning such symbols to objects, the comparison of the values ​​of which allows one to draw conclusions about the relationship of objects to each other. For TPR, this means the following: if the decision maker managed to select such a criterion for evaluating alternatives, that one of them has a higher criterion score than the others, then it can be assumed that by choosing the alternative with the highest (maximum) value of the criterion evaluation, the decision maker will thereby choose the best alternative.

Where - alternatives; - the values ​​of the evaluations of the criterion for the alternatives; - utility levels for the decision maker of the obtained assessment values respectively; - a symbol meaning non-strict superiority for alternatives and non-strict inequality for estimates (numbers); Û - a sign of double implication ("if and only then", "necessary and sufficient").

Relation (1.1) should be understood as follows: if some alternative is no worse than some other (in our case, the alternative is no less preferable than alternative ) then the utility value for the more preferable alternative should not be lower than for the less preferable one (in our case, the utility function should have a value not less than . In this case, we will definitely assume (and this is especially important) that the reverse is also true (the sign of the double implication "if and only then" in the expression indicates this).

It is the possibility of "reverse reading" of expression (1.1) that allows us to draw an important conclusion: if alternatives are found that have maximum utility, then they are most likely (up to the constructed model u (X) preferences) will be the best solutions.

Thus, relation (1.1) immediately implies the formal rule for choosing the best alternative:

, (1.2)

Where - best alternative ; - many alternatives .

The theory of measurement has developed a wide arsenal of scales of various properties for measuring the values ​​of criteria. These scales make it possible to meet the requirement of high information content to the greatest extent when solving the problem of choosing the best alternative and, at the same time, to achieve sufficient simplicity and cost savings in measurements.

So, if the purpose of the measurement is to divide objects (in our case, these are alternatives) into classes according to characteristics such as "yes - no", "friend - foe", suitable - unsuitable", etc., then the so-called nominal or ( classification ) scales. At the same time, any forms of presentation of the assessment in a nominal scale that do not allow identifying objects from different classes with each other will be equally suitable. So, often when modeling preferences, the scale of integers and even a binary scale with values ​​(1; 0) are used as gradations of nominal scales. For example, the decision maker may allow to consider everything that "yes" is a unit, and everything that is "no" is zero.

Any one-to-one transformations can be performed on the values ​​of ratings in nominal scales, and the meaning of the statements given by expression (1.1) is preserved.

If the purpose of measurement is to arrange objects of the same class in accordance with the intensity of the manifestation of some one common property in them, then the most expressive and economical will be ranking , or ordinal scale. For example, if the sign "sales volume" is common for expansion strategies in the market, then the expansion alternatives available to decision makers can, for example, be regulated on an ordinal scale with the values ​​"high", "medium", "low". Here you can also assign numerical values ​​to the gradations of the scale - ranks. The scale in this case is called ranking . For example, if the first object in the ordered row is assigned a rank equal to 1, the second - equal to 2, etc., then we get the so-called direct ranking scale . Ranking is also possible reverse ranking scales , where the more preferred object is assigned a higher, rather than a lower, rank. Estimates in rank scales admit any monotonically increasing or monotonically decreasing transformations.

Nominal and rank scales belong to the class of so-called quality scales , that is, scales that allow making no more than verbal (on an informal, qualitative level) assessments and judgments.

However, in practice there are very often cases when a simple, qualitative judgment about the ordering of alternatives is not enough. For example, decision makers need to do more than just find out that one of the alternatives to market expansion generates higher sales than the other. He still needs to get an idea of ​​how much or how many times the level of sales achieved for alternatives is higher (or lower). In such situations, the most advanced class of scales is used to measure the values ​​of the criteria - quantitative scales .

Subclasses of quantitative scales are interval scale , scale relations And absolute scale - the most perfect of all scales. Absolute the scale allows only identical transformations on its values. An intermediate position (in the sense of perfection) between qualitative and quantitative scales is occupied by numerical , point scale. In this scale, the evaluation criteria are expressed in the form of numbers, points, awarded according to the rules established by the decision maker.

As for the properties of point scales, the fewer gradations they have (for example, 3-5 numerical gradations) and the simpler the rules for scoring, the closer such scales are to qualitative, rank ones. And vice versa, the greater the number of gradations and the more complex the rules for scoring, the closer the scoring scale in its properties and capabilities is to the quantitative, interval scale.

So, in order to use the formal model (1.2) to choose the best alternative, one should decide measurement task .

At the very beginning, the decision maker conducts an in-depth analysis of the goal, imbued with an understanding of the usefulness of the results achieved for solving the problem. It is here, at this step, that the decision maker works according to the technology of "nominations" in the simplest, qualitative scale. Using a verbal description of the goal of the operation, the decision maker carefully models the goal, formally reproducing it in the general case in the form vector the desired result. Then, acting on the principle "these particular criteria are attributed to cost estimates, and those - to effect estimates, in the general case, forms vector criterion W. Next, a meaningful analysis of the composition and genesis (origin) of the factors that determine the type of situation mechanism is carried out.

Based on the idea of ​​the purpose and mechanism of the situation, the decision maker forms conceptual set of alternatives that fundamentally lead to the achievement of the goal of the operation. After that, the conceptual set alternatives to decision makers meaningfully analyzed in order to extract from it physically feasible alternatives . This means that the decision maker checks each of the alternatives of the conceptual set for its acceptability both in terms of achieving the goal of the operation, and in terms of meeting the time constraints for preparing and implementing this alternative during the operation and the required resources required for the physical implementation of the alternative.

When conceptual assessments costs And effect (i.e. grades in nominal scale) are obtained, it is already possible to formally weed out the less preferred conceptual alternatives. In this case, those of the physically realizable conceptual alternatives that are simultaneously inferior to at least one of the others at the same time in terms of effect and cost estimates should be considered less preferable.

In the process of such a "nomination" receive physically realizable admissible set of alternatives , consisting of "non-worst" components.

Further, for each alternative from the set of physically realizable alternatives, it is necessary to measure the values ​​of all private components of the vector criterion in a more perfect scale - rank or point, obtain estimates and draw conclusions about the "trends" that appear in the change in the values ​​of the criteria estimates with changes in the values ​​of the controlled factors available in the description of the alternatives.

The trends studied on the basis of measurement will serve as the main guidelines for checking the adequacy of more subtle models, and will make it possible to compare estimates of alternatives at a quantitative level.

In the third step of the measurement process, models are built to measure the criteria scores on more advanced, quantitative scales such as interval or ratio scales. Thus, not only trends, but also proportions in the values ​​of the estimates are more accurately established. At the same step, the measurements form a utility function for the decision maker of the criteria estimates, also, as a rule, on a scale of intervals.

Diagram of the decision-making process

The main purpose of the decision maker and its final product management activities is the development of solutions. Of course, his other managerial functions are also important, such as organizing interaction, comprehensively ensuring the conduct of the operation, monitoring, providing assistance, assessing the actual effectiveness of the operation, fixing, generalizing and disseminating the experience accumulated during the operation.

The scheme of the management decision-making structure is shown in Fig. 1.7.

Rice. 1.7. Diagram of the decision-making process.

The basis for making all decisions at all stages of the decision-making process, of course, is the preferences of the decision maker.

Undoubtedly, the appropriate start of the decision-making process should be formalization of preferences .

After the decision maker's preferences are formalized and the necessary information about preferences, move on to the next important decision-making step - to the construction of a choice function.

The choice function in decision theory has fundamental. It is precisely on its construction that the solution of the problems of forming the initial set of alternatives, analyzing the conditions for conducting the operation, identifying and measuring the preferences of the decision maker are ultimately oriented.

According to the formal definition adopted in the TPR, the choice function is a mapping of the form

, (1.3)

Where - some set (initial for the decision step under consideration), from which a choice is made; - a subset that has certain (known or given) properties, and .

When receiving step by step information from the decision maker about his preferences in the course of measurements, the selection function is first built based on the results of measurement and evaluation in the most reliable, but also less accurate nominal scale based on quality preference judgments. As a result, from the initial set A of alternatives, the first representation of the desired subset of alternatives is obtained, which contains the best alternative.

If the decision maker, having conducted an informal analysis of the subset , has not yet been able to decide on the choice of , then the construction of the selection function should be continued. To do this, the decision maker must refine the measured preferences by using a more advanced one, for example, to measure them. ordinal or point , scale.

As a result of refining the form of the choice function, in the general case, a different subset of alternatives will be obtained, and . Now the decision maker must focus on the analysis of this last set , since again the best alternative is contained in it. Then, if necessary, the decision maker's preferences can be clarified again by measuring them in any of the proportional scales, and so on until the decision maker confidently stops in choosing the best alternative.

It should be borne in mind that the specific form of the choice function that implements mapping (1.3) depends on the mechanism of the situation.

This circumstance is noted in the diagram in Fig. 1.7. options for constructing a choice function with their detailing according to the type of uncertainty conditions: under conditions stochastic uncertainty , in conditions behavioral uncertainty and under conditions natural uncertainty .

The target difference in the use of scalar and vector criteria determined the need to display in Fig. 1.7 in the general case of two variants of the form of the initial data and procedures for constructing the selection function - according to a scalar or vector criterion.

Receiving the information

The decision-making process requires the fullest possible amount of information both about the control system itself and about its operating environment (environment). Without information of this kind, it is impossible to analyze the conditions for making decisions, to identify situation mechanism and formation initial set of alternatives . The decision maker must carry out a meaningful analysis of information about the conditions of the operation, and obtain reliable ideas about the mechanism of the situation. Only by acquiring this information, the decision maker will be able, from the standpoint of systems approach not only verbally describe the main (leading) factors that contribute to and hinder the formation of a successful outcome of the operation, but also formally assess the degree of their influence on the effectiveness of the outcome.

To do this, it is necessary to understand exactly what information, of what quality and by what date is needed. The result of this intermediate decision (content, the required accuracy and reliability of information, the speed of its receipt) will help the decision maker to consciously choose one of the available sources of information and make a decision. The classification scheme for possible sources and ways of obtaining information is shown in Fig. 1. 1.8.

Rice. 1.8. Conceptual scheme for classifying possible sources and ways of obtaining information.

From the analysis of the circuit in Fig. 1.8. It follows that in principle there are only three sources of information:

Empirical data

knowledge, personal experience and intuition of the decision maker;

expert advice (expertise).

It is clear that almost most often people draw information from their own experience and knowledge, and their own intuition helps them fill in the gaps in positive knowledge.

In addition, there are two more fundamental possibilities: to search for the necessary information in one of the "objective sources", where the historical experience of mankind (empirical data) is recorded, or to turn to a "subjective source" - to the knowledge, skills and abilities of recognized specialists in their field (experts).

The TPR believes that expert - this is a person who personally works in the field of activity under consideration, is a recognized specialist in the problem being solved, can and has the opportunity to express an opinion on it in a form accessible to decision makers.

Experts perform informational and analytical work based on their personal ideas about the problem being solved. In the general case, the views of experts may not coincide with the opinion of the decision maker. This difference of opinion plays both negative and positive role. On the one hand, when opinions differ, the process of developing a decision is delayed, but, on the other hand, the decision maker can critically comprehend an alternative point of view or correct his own preferences.

In order to increase personal confidence that the specialist gave him the right advice, the decision maker may turn to not one, but several experts. Accordingly, distinguish individual (one expert) and group expertise. If the question is strictly confidential, time is limited or there is no opportunity to ask several specialists for an answer to a question of interest, then an individual examination - the best way obtaining information. But if the listed restrictions are not significant, then, undoubtedly, group examination is, on the whole, a more reliable and accurate way of obtaining information.

At the same time, in the course of a group examination, a discrepancy between the subjective judgments of individual specialists is possible. For this reason, it is necessary to special techniques for processing expert information in order to improve the reliability of the results.

TPR has developed a special set of organizational, technical and mathematical procedures that give harmony and logical conditionality to the entire process of obtaining, processing and analyzing group expert information. This set of procedures, which includes an examination (that is, the survey of experts itself) only as one of the stages of obtaining information, was called in the TPR expert evaluation method .

Historically accumulating knowledge, having learned to write, people began to record their objective experience. All useful information began to be entered in one form or another on special media. At first, these media were imperfect (for example, manuscripts, books) and inaccessible, but gradually they acquired a more perfect form, and with the development of printing, they turned into libraries, data banks (BnD), databases (BzD) and knowledge bases (KbZ). The process of searching for publicly available information has become more convenient, efficient and even creative. But at the same time, some information and some sources of information became inaccessible to the general public. Therefore, in the case when the decision maker, for various reasons, cannot find the information he needs in public sources, it has to be actively extracted. In order to obtain inaccessible information, the decision maker can organize and conduct natural or model experiment , may resort to the help of intelligence or use some kind of special equipment.

Intelligence or special equipment require significant costs; the same applies to the experiment, especially if the experiment is large-scale and is carried out under the action of an ambiguous mechanism of the situation. Therefore, in order to save money, it is advisable to conduct a strictly scientific experiment planning , quantitatively establish its parameters that are optimal in terms of the effectiveness of future decisions and actions of the decision maker.

Significant theoretical progress has been made in planning experiments on mathematical models using computers. The apparatus of the mathematical theory of planning is mainly focused on the study of random mechanisms of the situation. At the same time, it is often useful in other situations.

Let us consider the statement of the experiment planning problem.

If the goal of the study is to maximize the beneficial effect of the experiment under cost constraints, and the beneficial effect itself is correlated in the mind of the decision maker with providing an extremum (for example, maximum) of the output result, then the problem of establishing the optimal parameters of the experiment will be reduced to the desire to maximize the output result under cost constraints. For example, if you need to increase the yield of some useful substance in the process of chemical production, and the yield depends on such important parameters, as temperature, pressure, etc., then the formulation of the problem of planning an experiment for the production of a chemical product may look like this: find the optimal combination of the listed controlled variables of the chemical production process, which provide the maximum yield of the finished product of the required quality, provided that the costs of the experiment are not higher than the finances allocated for it.

Approximately according to the same scheme, the statement of the problem for obtaining information is formulated in the case when the effect is identified with the accuracy of predicting the output result, that is, with the magnitude of the error in reproducing the mechanism of the situation, as well as the statement of the problem, in which the goal of the decision maker is to strive to minimize the costs of modeling while ensuring the levels of claims of the decision maker for the expected effect.

Mathematical methods and models in decision making

Introduction!

The purpose of modeling is the process of studying an object at different levels - from qualitative to precise quantitative, as information is collected and the model is developed.

In the mathematical field, methods and models are understood as complex categories, which include:

methods in decision making;

operations research methods;

economic and mathematical methods;

methods of economic cybernetics;

optimal control methods;

applied mathematics in economics;

applied mathematics in the organization of production.

This list is not exhaustive, indicating a wide range of mathematical methods and models. In various sources, the content of which relates to the presented topics, mathematical models and methods are considered in various combinations.

A practical proof of the indicated thought is possible on the example of the well-known method of "probability theory", which is represented in the framework of mathematical models by a wide class and includes such concepts as "probability", "random event", "random variable", "mathematical expectation (mean value) of a random variable", "dispersion (scattering)", etc. IN late XIX- early XX centuries. a new object is allocated, which is a switched telephone communication system, implying such concepts as “application for connection”, “refusal”, “connection timeout”, “switching” and similar elements.

A mathematical probabilistic model of processes in switched telephone networks was formed in the 1920s. as a result of the connection of the presented method and object. The author of such an operation was A.K. Erlang. As an example of the existing concepts of this model, we can note:

"flow of applications";

"average waiting time";

"average queue length for service";

waiting time variance;

"probability of failure".

The subsequent development of this scientific direction demonstrated the effectiveness of the conceptual categories of the symbiotic model, revealed its large-scale constructive function.

This model in the course of its development has been transformed into a method for studying complex systems. As an example, we can single out the “queuing theory”, the categorical apparatus of which has ceased to be perceived as an integral part of telephone networks. The terminology and conceptual base have acquired a general theoretical character. Thus, the organization of new models can be carried out by applying the theory of queuing to such objects as production processes, operating systems, computers, traffic flows, etc.

As a result, the obvious conclusion is that the method is fully formed in the case of the development of a homogeneous set of models. The degree of research of the object directly depends on the number of developed models of the object. The dual nature of the model forms, in turn, the dualism of the categorical apparatus of modeling, which integrates the concepts of general or specific, formed from the "method" and "object", respectively.

In other words, methods, models, objects organize a continuous sequence, which implies the presence of various groups of models that are formed in accordance with the specifics of their origin and applicability. These groups include:

models that involve the interaction of previously developed methods and new objects;

models created for the first time with the aim of describing a particular object, while new models can be applied to other objects.

Linear programming- a mathematical discipline dedicated to the theory and methods for solving extremal problems on sets n-dimensional vector space defined by systems of linear equations and inequalities.

Integer programming- a kind of linear programming, which implies that the desired values ​​​​must be integers.

A branch of mathematical programming that studies methods for finding extrema of functions in a parameter space where all or some of the variables are integers.

The simplest method for solving an integer programming problem is to reduce it to a linear programming problem with checking the result for integer.

Flows in networks

The activity of modern society is closely connected with various kinds of networks - take, for example, transport, communications, distribution of goods, and the like. Therefore, the mathematical analysis of such networks has become a subject of fundamental importance.

GEOMETRIC PROGRAMMING- chapter , studies a certain class optimization problems, which are found mainly in engineering and economic calculations. The main requirement of the method is that all the technical characteristics of the designed objects were expressed quantitatively as dependences on regulated parameters. This type of programming is called geometric because it effectively uses geometric average and a number of such geometric concepts as vector spaces, vectors, orthogonality and etc.

NONLINEAR PROGRAMMING- chapter mathematical programming who studies methods of solving extreme tasks with non-linear objective function and/or domain of feasible solutions, defined by nonlinear restrictions.

OPTIMAL CONTROL- 1. Basic concept mathematical theory of optimal processes(belonging to the section of mathematics under the same name - O. at.); means choice such control parameters, which would provide the best in terms of a given criteria leakage process or otherwise the best system behavior, its development to goals By optimal trajectory. These control parameters are usually considered as time functions, which means that they can be changed during the process to select their best (optimal) values ​​at each stage.

QUEUING THEORY- chapter operations research which considers various processes in the economy, as well as in telephone communications, healthcare and other areas, as service processes, i.e., satisfying some requests, orders (for example, servicing ships in the port - unloading and loading them, servicing turners in the tool pantry of the shop - issuing cutters to them, serving customers in the laundry - washing clothes, etc.).

UTILITY THEORY- a theoretical direction in economics developed by representatives of the Austrian school in the 19th-20th centuries, based on the basic objective concept of "utility", perceived as pleasure, satisfaction received by a person as a result of the consumption of goods. The basic tenet of utility theory is law of diminishing marginal utility, according to which the increment of utility received from one added unit of a good decreases continuously.

Decision theory- an interdisciplinary field of study of interest to practitioners and related to mathematics, statistics, economics, philosophy, management and psychology; studies how real decision makers choose decisions and how optimal decisions can be made.

Game theory- a mathematical method for studying optimal strategies in games. The game is understood as a process in which two or more parties participate, fighting for the realization of their interests. Each side has its own goal and uses some strategy, which can lead to a win or a loss - depending on the behavior of other players. Game theory helps to choose the best strategies, taking into account ideas about other participants, their resources and their possible actions.

Simulation- a method that allows you to build models that describe processes as they would take place in reality. Such a model can be "played" in time for both one test and a given set of them. In this case, the results will be determined by the random nature of the processes. Based on these data, fairly stable statistics can be obtained.

Dynamic programming is a branch of mathematics devoted to the theory and methods for solving multi-step optimal control problems.

Features of the application of mathematical theory in making managerial decisions

Remark 1

Methods, which are based on the use of mathematics, make it possible to make managerial decisions that can be formalized or fully describe the relationship and interdependence of their conditions, factors and results.

The use of mathematical theory is typical for making tactical and partially operational decisions.

The application of mathematical theory is effective in the presence of a number of parameters of the management decision:

• the goal or optimization criterion is clearly known in advance;
• the main limitations are obvious - the conditions for achieving this goal;
• management problem is well structured.

Mathematical theory algorithm

A feature of the mathematical theory of substantiation of managerial decisions is the presence in it of a certain algorithm that accurately prescribes to perform a certain system of operations in a prescribed sequence to solve a certain class of problems.

The algorithm of the mathematical theory of managerial decision-making must meet a number of requirements:

• certainty, i.e. accuracy and unambiguity, leaving no room for arbitrariness;
• mass character and universality - applicability for solving a specific class of problems, when the initial data vary within certain limits;
• performance, i.e. the possibility of solving a given problem in a limited number of operations.

Mathematical methods for making managerial decisions

The main methods for solving typical management problems within the framework of mathematical theory are:

1. The method of mathematical analysis is used in calculations to justify the need for resources, cost accounting, project development, etc.
2. The method of mathematical statistics is convenient to use when the change in the studied indicators is a random process.
3. The econometric method involves the use of an economic model - a schematic representation of an economic process or phenomenon.
4. Linear programming is the solution of a system of equations when there is a strictly functional relationship between the phenomena under study.
5. Dynamic programming is used to solve optimization problems where the constraints or the objective function have a non-linear dependence.
6. The queuing theory is used to find the optimal number of service channels for a given level of demand for them. An example of such a situation is the choice the best option organization of work with clients so that the service time is minimal and the quality is high without additional costs.
7. The method of operations research is the use of mathematical probabilistic models, which represent the process, activity or system under study. Optimization is reduced to a comparative study of numerical estimates of those parameters that cannot be estimated by conventional methods.
8. Situational analysis is a complex technology for making and implementing a management decision, which is based on the analysis of a separate management situation. Such an analysis is based on a specific situation, a problem that arises in the activities of the organization, which requires a management decision.
9. Game theory methods - modeling a situation in which, when justifying decisions, it is necessary to take into account the conflict or discrepancy between the interests of various persons.
10. Break-even points - a method in which total revenues are equalized with total expenses to find the point that brings the company the minimum profit.
11. Trend projection is a time series analysis based on the assumption that what happened in the past gives a good approximation in the case of estimating the future. This method is used to identify past trends and extend them into the future.

As we said at the end of the last lesson, making a decision is only half the battle. The second half is to evaluate how correct, true and effective it was. This is important for the reason that the assessment allows you to understand how competent the actions taken were, whether they will lead to success in the future, and in general, whether it is worth counting on them. Evaluation of the decisions made is a kind of litmus test that checks their effectiveness. However, it is very important to understand that ordinary decisions in life and managerial decisions are evaluated according to different algorithms.

Evaluation of everyday decisions

To begin with, let's repeat a little: if you are faced with the need to make some kind of difficult decision, the consequences of which bother you, first of all, you should think over all the pros and cons several times, assess the situation and possible options for resolving it. making a decision is the first step towards its effectiveness.

The end product of the analysis decision there will always be a result. Based on it, it will be possible to judge whether the goal has been achieved, what resources were used to achieve it, how much effort and time was spent, what happened in the end, and whether the game was worth the candle.

So, if the decision taken is associated with any quantifiable quantities, its effectiveness is quite amenable to calculation in relative or absolute units. For example, if you decide, hoping to reach a new level of income, you can evaluate the effectiveness of your decision after a month or six months. If you decide to launch a new ad for your product, you can understand how effective this decision was by establishing the increase in customers, the increase in the percentage of sales and the net profit.

In the case when the solution is associated with uncountable quantities, its evaluation is different. You need to understand whether you have achieved the originally set result. For example, having set yourself the task of increasing your personal productivity and starting to do more, you decided. It will be possible to sum up the results in a week by ticking the boxes next to the completed tasks in your list.

Decisions made in any other sphere of life are evaluated in a similar way. The scheme is extremely simple: the goal is either achieved or not. If it is achieved, you did everything right, if not, you need to change something. In addition, performance evaluation can be carried out with an eye on the resources spent: the less effort, time, money and other resources you spent on implementing your solution, the more effective it is. Everything is simple.

As we can see, in ordinary everyday life, it is quite easy to analyze the decisions made. But there is another category of decisions - managerial ones, and it is much more difficult to analyze them. Entire books and manuals are written on this topic, and, unfortunately, it will not work to consider all the details in one lesson. However, it is quite realistic to point out the basics of this process. This is what we will do.

Fundamentals of evaluation of management decisions

The adoption of any managerial decision can be called an intermediate stage between a managerial decision and managerial influence. This, in turn, suggests that the effectiveness of such a solution is manifested in the combination of the effectiveness of its development and implementation.

In total, there are more than six dozen various private indicators of the effectiveness of the organization. These include the turnover of working capital, profitability, return on investment, the ratio of growth rates of labor productivity and average wages, etc.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of management decisions involves the use of the concept of total economic effect, because the results obtained necessarily include the labor contribution of people.

It should also be said that it is very important for organizations to meet customer requirements and at the same time improve the economic performance of their activities. Based on this, when evaluating the effectiveness of decisions, it becomes necessary to take into account two aspects of performance - social and economic.

The algorithm for evaluating the effectiveness of management decisions can be illustrated by taking a trade organization as an example. So, in order to understand whether the decision was effective or not, it is necessary to keep separate records of income and expenses with regard to different product groups. Considering that it is very difficult to do this in practice, the use of so-called specific qualitative indicators is common in the analysis process. Here they are profit per 1 million rubles of turnover and distribution costs per 1 million commodity stocks.

The effectiveness of management decisions in trade organizations is expressed collectively in quantitative form - this is an increase in the volume of trade, an increase in the speed of product turnover and a decrease in the amount of commodity reserves.

If you need to understand the final financial and economic result of the implementation of management decisions, you should establish how much the income of a particular organization increases and how much its expenses decrease.

It is possible to determine the economic efficiency of a decision that affected the growth of turnover and an increase in profits using the formula:

Ef P * T P * (Tf - Tpl), where:

• Ef - indicator of economic efficiency
• P - profit indicator based on 1 million rubles of turnover
• T is an indicator of the increase in the volume of trade
• Tf - an indicator of the actual turnover, observed after the implementation of the management decision
• Tm - an indicator of planned turnover (or turnover for a comparable period before the implementation of a management decision)

In this example, economic efficiency reflects the reduction in distribution costs (sales costs, sales costs) that fall on the balance of goods. Hence the increase in profits. The efficiency here is determined by the formula:

Ef \u003d IO * Z IO * (Z2 - Z1), where:

• Ef - an indicator of the economic efficiency of a specific management decision
• IO - an indicator of the volume of distribution costs based on 1 million rubles of inventory
• Z - an indicator of the magnitude of changes (decreases) in inventories
• 31 - an indicator of the volume of commodity stocks before the implementation of a management decision
• 32 - indicator of the volume of commodity stocks after the implementation of the management decision

In our case, the economic efficiency of the management decision was also reflected in the increase in the rate of turnover of goods. Its indicator can be calculated by the formula:

Ef Io*Ob Io (Ob f - O pl), where:

• Ef - an indicator of the economic efficiency of a management decision
• Io - an indicator of the simultaneous volume of distribution costs
• About - an indicator of increasing the rate of turnover of goods
• About pl - an indicator of the turnover of goods before making a management decision
• About f - an indicator of the turnover of goods after the adoption of a management decision

In addition to everything, to analyze the effectiveness of management decisions, it is customary to use several specialized methods that simplify the procedure and lead to more accurate results.

Methods for assessing management decisions

In the process of evaluating the effectiveness of management decisions, seven main methods are used:

• index method. It is used to analyze the most complex phenomena with elements that cannot be measured. Indices here play the role of relative indicators. They help to assess how planned tasks are being fulfilled and to determine the dynamics of various processes and phenomena. The index method is designed to help decompose the generalizing indicator into factors of relative and absolute deviations.
• balance method. Its essence lies in the fact that the interrelated indicators of the organization's work are compared. The goal is to determine the influence of individual factors and find reserves to improve the company's efficiency. The relationship of individual indicators is represented by the equality of the results obtained after certain comparisons.
• elimination method. It generalizes the first two methods and offers the opportunity to determine the impact of any one factor on the overall performance of the company. This assumes that all other factors functioned in the same environment - according to the plan.
• Graphic method. It is a way of visual representation of the work of the organization, the definition of a set of indicators and the presentation of the results of the analytical activities carried out.
• comparison method. It offers the opportunity to assess the company's performance, identify deviations of actual indicators from baseline values, establish their causes and search for reserves for further improvement of activities.
• Functional cost analysis. It can be called a method system research applied, based on the purpose of the object of study. Its task is to increase the useful effect (return) of the total costs for the life cycle of an object. A distinctive feature is that the method allows you to establish the feasibility of a number of functions that will be performed by the designed object in a specific environment, as well as to check the need for some functions of an object that already exists.
• Economic and mathematical methods. They are used when it is required to choose the best options that determine the specifics of management decisions in current or proposed economic conditions. There are many problems that economic and mathematical methods solve. Among them, the establishment of the best assortment of the manufactured product, the evaluation of the production plan, a comparative analysis of the economic efficiency of the use of resources, optimization production program and others.

The effectiveness of the work of the organization is most seriously influenced by managerial decisions. This is the reason why it is important to master the management apparatus, the theory and practice of developing and implementing solutions as much as possible. This means that you need to have the skill of choosing the best alternative among several options.

Any management decisions are due to the reliability and completeness of the available data. Therefore, they can be taken both under conditions of certainty and under conditions of uncertainty.

Management decision-making as a process is a cyclic sequence of actions of a responsible person to resolve urgent problems. These actions consist in analyzing the situation, developing possible solutions, choosing and implementing the best of them.

Practice shows that decision-making at any level is subject to errors. This is influenced by many reasons, tk. economic development includes a large number of most different situations that need to be resolved.

A special place among the reasons why managerial decisions turn out to be ineffective is occupied by non-compliance or banal ignorance of the technology for their generation and subsequent implementation. And for this, it is customary to use theoretical information, methods and techniques that we talked about in previous lessons.

All of the above, of course, describes only the basic prerequisites for assessing the effectiveness of management decisions. To properly apply them in practice, you must either have the appropriate education, or immerse yourself in the study of specialized literature, because. There is great amount subtleties, nuances, techniques and purely technical data that need to be studied, learned and mastered. This lesson can serve Starting point for subsequent deepening into the specifics of assessing the effectiveness of management decisions.

In conclusion of our course, I would like to highlight one more topic, knowledge of which is simply necessary for making the right decisions in life, education and work. This is the subject of the psychology of decision making. And we will consider it from the position of Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist and one of the founders of behavioral finance and psychological economic theory. In his explanations of people's irrational attitude to risk in managing their behavior and making decisions, he combines cognitive science and economics. Kahneman's ideas will provide you with significant support in increasing your effectiveness.

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Efficiency in general view- this is the effectiveness of something (production, labor, management, etc.). In economic theory, there are mainly two types of efficiency - economic and social. Economic efficiency characterizes the ratio of the result obtained to the costs, social - the degree of satisfaction of the demand of the population (consumers, customers) for goods and services. They are often lumped together under the same term social and economic efficiency, which is most related to the assessment of management decisions, since the latter are aimed at the state and behavior of people and thus have a high social significance and their assessment only from the standpoint of economic effect is not entirely correct. In recent decades, the need for evaluation of many management decisions has been growing. environmental efficiency, reflecting both positive and negative impact of their implementation on the environmental situation. This usually reflects the possible costs of the organization to eliminate the negative impact on the environment, fines and other related payments or their savings with a positive impact on the environment.

Quality - from the standpoint of philosophy - expresses a set of essential features, features and properties that distinguish one object or phenomenon from others and give it certainty. The quality of the result of labor (product, service, investment project, management decision, etc.) is associated with the concepts of "property" and "utility". Property the result of labor determines the objective aspects without assessing its importance for the consumer (for example, the technical level of products, projects); utility - the ability of a given result of labor to benefit and satisfy the requirements of a particular consumer. From here, quality of management decision - a set of properties that determine its ability to satisfy certain needs in accordance with the purpose. In the practice of organizations, efficiency and quality are inseparable and mutually determine each other. A solution cannot be highly efficient if it is of low quality and, conversely, it cannot be of high quality if it is inefficient, i.e. efficiency – one of the characteristics of quality, and quality is an essential factor of efficiency.

The effectiveness and quality of a management decision are determined by the entire set of management processes that make up its relatively independent and interconnected stages in the technological cycle: development, adoption and implementation of decisions. In accordance with this, it is necessary to consider modifications of the management decision - the effectiveness and quality of the theoretically found, adopted decision maker and practically implemented decision.

At the stages of development and adoption management decision, its quality is the degree of compliance of the parameters of the chosen solution alternative with a certain system of characteristics that satisfies its developers and consumers and provides the possibility of effective implementation. At the implementation stage the quality of a management decision is expressed in its actual effectiveness, the effectiveness of its implementation.

The main characteristics that determine the quality of decisions include: validity, timeliness, consistency (consistency), reality, completeness of content, authority (authority), efficiency.

Reasonableness of the decision is determined by: the degree of accounting for the patterns of functioning and development of the control object, the trends in the development of the economy and society as a whole, the competence of its developing specialists and decision makers. It should cover the entire range of issues, the entirety of the needs of the managed object. This requires knowledge of the features, ways of development of the controlled system and the external environment. A thorough analysis of resource provision, scientific and technical capabilities, target development functions, economic and social prospects of the company, region, industry, national and world economy is required. The comprehensive validity of decisions requires the search for new forms and ways of processing scientific, technical and socio-economic information, forms and methods of management, theory and practice of developing and making decisions, i.e. formation of advanced professional thinking, development of its analytical and synthetic functions. A justified decision can only be made on the basis of reliable, systematized and scientifically processed information, which is achieved by using scientific methods for developing and optimizing solutions.

Thus, the validity of the decision is provided by the following main factors:

• taking into account the requirements of objective economic laws and regularities, current legislation and statutory documents;
• knowledge and use of patterns and trends in the development of the control object and its external environment;
• availability of complete, reliable, timely information;
• availability of special knowledge, education and qualifications of developers and decision makers;
• knowledge and application of decision makers of the main recommendations of management and the theory of decision making;
• used methods of analysis and synthesis of situations.

The growing complexity and complexity of the problems being solved and their consequences require universal knowledge for the development and adoption of sound managerial decisions, which leads to an ever wider spread of collegial forms of decision-making.

The validity of management decisions can be achieved by the following actions:

• determination of conditions for the formation of acceptable options;
• compiling a list of indicators characterizing the essential properties of the found solutions, and developing scales for their measurement;
• screening out irrational options and determining the range of possible values ​​for each indicator using a variety of mathematical and heuristic methods;
• revealing the structure of decision maker's preferences;
• formation of a criterion or rules for evaluating solution options;
• choice the best option managerial decision or clarification of the decision maker's preference structure.

The implementation of these actions does not always guarantee high quality and efficiency of decisions, since the choice of alternatives is significantly more difficult the following factors.

• 1. The multidimensional nature of the assessments of the effectiveness of alternatives. When determining options decisions, and even more so when choosing the most appropriate of them, one has to make economic, technical and technological, social, political, and environmental assessments. Each one has multiple approaches. For example, valuation, according to international, European and Russian standards, uses cost, market (comparative) and income approach s that use various methods depending on the object and objectives of the assessment. When choosing options for the development of an open joint-stock company it is necessary to take into account the entire set of stakeholders, since the decisions made can significantly affect various groups of people, which increases the number of possible assessments (both in relation to them and on their part). In many cases it is necessary to take into account changes in estimates over time. At the same time, problems of taking into account new types of assessments that characterize the consequences of a decision made at different points in the future arise more and more often.
• 2. Difficulties in identifying and comparing all aspects of the comparison of alternatives. The existence of heterogeneous aspects of the assessment of alternatives poses difficult problems for developers and decision makers to compare them. It should be borne in mind here that such a comparison is subjective and therefore can be criticized. This is aggravated many times over in collegial decision-making, where each of the members of the decision-making collective body may have different measures of comparing heterogeneous qualities. Some participants in the development and decision-making may be interested mainly in economic criteria, others in political ones, others in environmental ones, etc.
• 3. Subjective nature of assessments of the effectiveness and quality of alternatives. Many estimates of the effectiveness and quality of alternatives can be obtained either by building special models, or by collecting and processing expert opinions. Both methods are associated with the use of subjective assessments of either specialists developing models or experts. When choosing alternatives, it should be taken into account that the reliability of such subjective assessments cannot be absolute. Even with complete unanimity of experts, a situation is possible when their assessments turn out to be incorrect. It is also possible that different models exist or that experts' assessments do not match. Consequently, several alternatives may have different estimates, and the result of the choice depends on which of them will be used by the decision maker.

Timeliness management decision means that the decision made should neither lag behind nor outstrip the needs of the development of the situation in it. Even the most optimal (of the most appropriate for the decision maker) decision, designed to obtain the greatest socio-economic efficiency, may be useless if it is taken too late. It can even bring certain damage. Premature decisions are no less harmful to the organization than belated ones. They do not have the conditions necessary for implementation and development, and can give impetus to the development of negative trends, do not contribute to the solution of already "overripe" tasks and further exacerbate already painful processes.

Consistency (consistency ). Distinguish between internal and external consistency of the solution. Under internal consistency solutions is understood as the correspondence of the goals and means of achieving them to the complexity of the problem being solved and the methods for developing the solution, the individual provisions of the solution to each other and the meaning of the solution as a whole. Under external consistency decisions - their continuity, compliance with the strategy, the company's goals and previously made decisions (the actions necessary to implement one decision should not interfere with the implementation of others). Achieving a combination of these two conditions ensures the consistency and consistency of the management decision. Consistency with previous decisions also means the need to maintain a clear causal relationship community development. Previously made decisions, if necessary, must be canceled or corrected if they conflict with the new operating conditions of the controlled system. The appearance of conflicting decisions is a consequence of poor knowledge and understanding of the laws of social development, a manifestation of a low level of managerial culture.

Reality. The decision should be developed and adopted taking into account the objective capabilities of the organization, its potential. In other words, the material, financial, informational and other resources, the capabilities of the organization must be sufficient for the effective implementation of the chosen alternative.

Completeness of content decisions means that the decision should cover the entire set of parameters of the managed object necessary to ensure the achievement of goals, all areas of its activity, all areas of development. The content of the management decision should reflect:

• the goal (set of goals) of the functioning and development of the controlled object, to which the decision is directed;
• resources used to achieve these goals;
• the main ways and means of achieving the goals, the main methods of performing work that determine the implementation of the goals of the solution;
• terms of achievement of the purposes, the beginning and the end of their providing works;
• the order of interaction between departments and individual employees.

So, a management decision can be considered a quality one if it meets all the above requirements. Moreover, we are talking about a system of requirements, since non-compliance with at least one of them leads to a decrease in the quality of the solution and, consequently, to loss of efficiency, difficulties or even impossibility of its implementation.

The quality and efficiency of a management decision are determined by many factors that operate throughout the entire technological cycle of management or at its individual stages, which have an internal or external (influence environment), objective or subjective. The most significant factors include:

• the laws of the objective world associated with the adoption and implementation of management decisions;
• goal statement; why a managerial decision is made, what real results can be achieved, how to measure, correlate the goal and the results achieved;
• the volume and value of the available information - for the successful adoption of a managerial decision, the main thing is not so much the amount of information as its value, determined by the level of professionalism, experience, and intuition of personnel;
• the time of development of a management decision - as a rule, a management decision is always made in conditions of lack of time and emergency circumstances (lack of resources, activity of competitors, market conditions, inconsistent behavior of politicians);
• organizational structure management, defined by organizational documents (formal) and actually existing (informal). In fact, the existing (acting) management structure, in almost exceptional cases, coincides with that determined by the relevant organizational documents, within which all employees of the organization are required to act. The need to take into account this requirement is often a condition for the adoption of not the most optimal solution;
• forms and methods of management activities, including the development and implementation of management decisions;
• the state of the control and managed systems (psychological climate, the authority of the leader, the professional and qualification composition of personnel, etc.);
• a system for assessing the level of quality and effectiveness of a management decision;
• the degree of risk associated with the consequences of implementing the decision. This factor requires the use of various risk assessment methods (financial, economic, etc.); accordingly, the manager must have the skills to perform such an analysis;
• office equipment, including IVS. Application of modern information systems- a powerful factor in activating the process of developing, making and implementing decisions. It requires certain knowledge and skills in the use of modern information technologies in managing the activities of organizations;
• subjectivity of the evaluation of the solution choice option. The decision-making process, the choice of a specific option is creative and depends on the individual, her condition at the time of the decision. Personal assessments of the decision maker act as a compass, showing him the desired direction when he has to choose between alternative actions. Each person has their own value system, which determines their actions and influences the decisions they make. Personal factors include:
• - the psychological state of the decision maker at the time of making the decision. In a state of irritability, loaded with other decisions, the decision maker can make one decision on this situation, and in good mood, being relatively free - another,
• - a measure of responsibility of the decision maker, determined both by an internal sense of responsibility for their actions, and regulating it activity documents,
• - the level of knowledge on the subject. The higher the level of knowledge of the decision maker about the object to which the decision is directed, and its external environment, the more likely they are to make a quality and effective decision,
• - experience, which, as the main resource for the development and implementation of decisions, is the determining factor for adequate perception of a real assessment and effective response of decision makers to what is happening, is a certain bank of proven and adaptable options, in which analogues and prototypes of developed, adopted and implemented decisions are drawn,
• - intuition, judgment (common sense) and rationality of the decision maker.

Reference. Intuition manifests itself as some kind of insight or instant understanding of the situation without the use of rational thinking. However, such insight is usually preceded by a long and painstaking work consciousness. First, through observation, information is accumulated in a person’s memory, systematized and arranged in a certain order. Often in this way they come to an expedient solution to the problem. If this does not happen, intuition and imagination are connected, generating numerous ideas and associations. One of the ideas can cause intuitive insight, which, as it were, pushes the corresponding idea from the subconscious into consciousness. Intuition is a powerful decision-making tool that needs constant development and should be actively used in management activities.

When making a decision, the decision maker is often based on his own feeling that his choice is correct. Intuition develops as you gain experience. Judgmental decisions are based on knowledge and meaningful experience of the past. Using them and relying on common sense, as amended today, they choose the option that brought greatest success in a similar situation in the past. However, common sense in people, from the point of view of the author, is rare, therefore this method decision-making is not very reliable, although it captivates with its speed and cheapness. With this approach, the decision maker seeks to act mainly in those areas that are well known to him, as a result of which he risks missing a good result in another area, consciously or unconsciously refusing to invade it;

Criterion of the risk strategy chosen by decision maker: optimism, pessimism or indifference. The optimism criterion (maximax) determines the choice of the alternative that maximizes the maximum outcome for each alternative; pessimism (maximin) - an alternative that maximizes the minimum result for each alternative; indifference - an alternative with the maximum average result (in this case, there is an unspoken assumption that each of the possible states of the controlled system can occur with equal probability: as a result, an alternative is chosen that gives the maximum value of the mathematical expectation).

At the implementation stage, the effectiveness of decisions is determined by the following factors:

• the level of development and state of the controlled system, its equipment, technology, personnel (cadres), organization and economy. With a high level of development of all components of the controlled system, when implementing the solution, more efficiency can be obtained than that provided for by the solution, and vice versa, at a low level, it is quite difficult to ensure the efficiency defined in the solution;
• socio-psychological climate in the team implementing the solution. The main criterion for the socio-psychological climate is the level of maturity of the team, which is understood as the degree of coincidence of individual and collective interests. The higher the level of maturity of the team, the more manageable it is, which is necessary condition its effective operation;
• the authority of the leaders who ensure the implementation of the solution. The higher the authority of the leaders, the more manageable the team and, accordingly, the higher the level of efficiency of its activities;
• the effectiveness of the mechanism for managing the activities of the team, which is expressed in the essence of management as the creation of conditions that encourage people to take the actions necessary to achieve the goals;
• decision implementation time. A well-timed high-quality and effective decision, if not implemented in time, may turn out to be not only ineffective, but unnecessary;
• compliance of the number and qualifications (education, skills and experience) of personnel with the volume and complexity of work on the implementation of the solution. If the number of personnel is less than necessary for the implementation of the decision, it is difficult to meet its deadlines. When the qualification of workers is below the required level, the quality of work performance decreases and, at the same time, the effectiveness of the implementation of the solution;
• provision with the necessary material, energy, labor, information and financial resources.

It was shown above that the effectiveness of a solution is determined at the stages of its development and implementation. At the first stage, it is determined by known methods for calculating the effectiveness of design solutions, at the second stage, as a rule, but by methods for calculating actual profit and profitability of activities. IN last years to determine the effectiveness of strategic decisions at the stages of their development and implementation, the calculation of the expected and actual changes in the market value of the business is often used, the results of which are the basis for assessing and choosing an organization's strategy.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of management decisions at the stages of their development and adoption can be carried out according to well-known evaluation indicators investment projects:

• net discounted (present, current) income (NPV) - NPV (Net Present Value) ) is the current value of cash inflows (income) minus the cost of cash outflows (investment costs);
• internal rate of return (IRR) – IRR (Internal Rate of Return ) is the discount rate at which the current value of the projected cash inflows (income) and the current value of the projected investment costs (cash outflows) are equal, i.e. net current income (NPV) in this case it is equal to zero;
• modified internal rate of return (MIRR) – MIRR (Modified Internal Rate of Return) ) is an indicator characterizing the efficiency of capital investments (investments). If the present value of all investment

investments are considered as initially invested capital, and the future value of all cash inflows is considered as an accrued amount, then the discount rate of the accrual coefficient is taken to be MIRR;

• profitability index (RI) – PI (Profitability Index ) is the value of the net (discounted) cash flow per unit of investment;
• payback period - RR (Payback period ) is the expected period of return of invested funds by net cash receipts;
• discounted payback period DPP (Discounted Payback Period ) - the estimated period of compensation (equality) of the current value of invested funds and the current value of net cash receipts;
• cost effectiveness ratio - ARR (Accounting Rate of Return ) is equal to the ratio of the forecast average annual net (balance sheet) profit to the average annual investment costs.

These indicators are widely used in practice, and the methods of their calculation are recognized as traditional. In numerous literature they are described in detail, examples are given illustrating their calculations for the selection of projects (alternatives) of management decisions with different initial conditions.

These indicators, as well as the methods corresponding to them, are used in two versions:

• to determine the effectiveness of independent (non-alternative) management decisions (the so-called absolute efficiency), when it is concluded whether to accept it or reject it;
• to determine the effectiveness of mutually exclusive decision alternatives (comparative efficiency), when it is concluded which one to take as a management decision.

In assessing the effectiveness of management decisions, like any other activity, the results of its implementation (effect - Er) and the costs of its development, adoption and implementation (Zp) are involved. The effect of managerial decisions is manifested in the final results of the organization's activities. Even in cases where a management decision is aimed at changing the technical, economic or socio-economic indicators of the organization's activities (the level of state and development of equipment and production technology, the range and range of products, the quality of raw materials, the design characteristics of work premises, social infrastructure, etc.), the effect of its implementation is ultimately reflected in a change in the level of use of its potential and satisfaction of public needs in its products and services, i.e.

Er = f (P, Ip, Zr, Up)

at (P - Ip), Zr min; Pack max,

where P is the potential of the organization; Ip - its use; Yn - the level of satisfaction of social needs in its products and services.

This approach, called resource-potential ", to assess the effectiveness of managing the activities of organizations, the product of which are management decisions and the results of their implementation, was proposed by Academician of the USSR Academy of Sciences V. A. Trapeznikov, substantiated and developed by professors F. M. Rusinov and V. I. Busov.

The development of an organization (its potential, related to a particular goal, expressed in the pursuit of the maximum possible satisfaction of a certain type of social needs) has limitations determined by the ratio of supply and demand for products and services that this organization is capable of producing. The excess of the result for one or another function of the enterprise of the existing needs in it is a negative effect of its activities or an unprofitable result, tantamount to waste and loss of resources spent on it.

The second component of efficiency is the cost of resources for the development, adoption and implementation of a management decision. Increasing the level of return on these costs (their effectiveness) is the most important task of managing the process of developing, adopting and implementing managerial decisions. A misunderstanding of this task (especially in terms of developing and making decisions) often leads in practice to a reduction in these costs, even to the detriment of the effectiveness of managerial decisions. This is due to the fact that the main share of costs is often wages and accruals on it, and their reduction comes down to a reduction in the personnel involved in this process or the level of remuneration for their work, as a result of which the quality of the management decision and the effect of its implementation, personnel motivation deteriorate. Reducing the costs of developing, making and implementing management decisions by a simple voluntaristic decision entails a decrease in the efficiency of the organization, associated with deterioration of control, an increase in the waiting time for a decision on a particular situation, a deterioration in the quality of preparation, development and decision-making, and other factors affecting the level of loss of resources.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of the implementation of management decisions can be made for each major management decision or for the totality of those implemented in a certain period of time (for example, a quarter, half a year, a year). It consists of a system of indicators (Fig. 3.5), including:

• a generalizing integral indicator specifying the efficiency criterion;
• generalizing indicators reflecting the effectiveness of the implementation of groups of goals for the achievement of which a management decision was made (scientific and technical, economic, social, etc.);
• private indicators reflecting the effectiveness of the use certain types resources for individual stages of the reproduction cycle.

When determining the effectiveness of the implementation of a management decision, the value is not used of the potential of the organization's resources in general, but of its potential to perform the functions that this decision covers. To identify such a composition, you can use the matrices shown in Table. 1.2–1.5.

The level of potential utilization is defined as the difference between its value and losses. Moreover, the reserve part of the potential, necessary for the sustainable functioning and development of any unit of the organization, does not apply to its losses.

Rice. 3.3.

Shown in fig. 3.5 the system of indicators reflects the structure of the "tree" of the goals of improving the efficiency of the organization.

The effectiveness of a management decision is defined as

where Ents and Ents, Epts and Epts, Ests and Ests, Eekts and Eekts are the effectiveness and effect of a management decision in achieving scientific, technical, industrial, social and environmental goals, respectively; Ei, - the effect of the implementation of the management decision in the t-th division of the organization (the workplace of the division); Зр - costs for the development and implementation of a management decision; P - the number of departments involved in the development and implementation of this management decision.

Participation effect i -th division of the organization (workplace) in the development and implementation of a management decision is defined as the sum of the effects of changes in the level of use in the process to which this decision is directed, the existing potential of the unit (workplace) - the internal effect (Ev) - and the result of the implementation of the goals of the decision - the external effect (Ec), i.e.

Ei = Ev + Etz.

The internal effect is determined by intensive (Ei) and extensive factors (Ee), i.e.

Ev = Ei + Ee.

Intensive factors determine the changes in the productive use of potential due to the implementation of this management decision, while extensive factors determine changes in the unproductive use of potential and loss of resources.

The scheme for calculating the performance indicators of enterprise management is shown in fig. 3.6.

Since all resources go to the workplaces of the organization and are used here, the level of use of the potential of the enterprise's resources is determined by the processes at its workplaces. The change in the level of productive use of resources at the workplace is determined by the difference in the use of potential output (or labor productivity) at a given workplace before and after the implementation of a given management decision, i.e.

where and Vp - potential output at a given workplace, respectively, before and after the implementation of the management decision; , and Vf - the actual output at this workplace, respectively, before and after the implementation of the management decision.

The actual output (or labor productivity) in any production unit (procurement, mechanical, foundry, assembly, etc.) is determined without much difficulty according to generally accepted assessment methods.

Rice. 3.6.

Potential and actual output at the workplace form the basis for determining the potential and actual output by unit, function or type of activity of the unit. The volume of production at the workplace is affected by: the productivity of equipment with a given technology of work performed at a given workplace; compliance of the employee's qualifications with the level of complexity of work; the timeliness of providing the workplace with the necessary materials, tools, office equipment, information and other resources; compliance of the quantity and quality of initial resources with the requirements of technology; the rhythm of the worker's activity in the workplace. These factors reduce actual production compared to potential.

The potential output of the workplace (Vp(rm)) is determined by the volume of output of the equipment installed on it with a maximum number of one hundred hours of work in a given period, taking into account the time for readjustment, repair, adjustment, i.e. according to the formula

Βp(rm) = (Fr - t m) P n ,

where Фр is the regime fund of the operating time of one unit (construction crane, bulldozer, concrete mixer, sanding machine, etc.) at the workplace per month; t n - standard time for adjustment and repair, readjustment of one unit; P - regime (technological) removal of products from a piece of equipment (unit) per unit of time; P - the number of units of the same type at the workplace for multi-machine maintenance.

For jobs with low-mechanized and manual labor, including engineering and managerial employees, the potential output is calculated by the maximum shift output of the month, based on the fact that the maximum output in this shift was achieved due to the greatest use of the possibilities of the resources that make up this workplace, i.e.

Vp(rm) = Vs.max t r,

where Вс.max is the maximum shift output at the workplace in the billing month, standard hours; m - the number of shifts in the billing month; R – cost of 1 standard hour, rub.

The initial data for the calculation are taken from the output and wage records, which must be filled out in the divisions of the enterprise.

A similar approach can be applied to any workplace, but for mechanized and automated workplaces, Vp should be calculated from the performance of the equipment.

Knowing the potential output per month for all workplaces of the unit, it is possible to determine the potential output of this unit. It is calculated according to the technological chain of workplaces formed by the system of machines involved in the production of this type of product, or determined by the sequence of execution of technological operations assigned to the workplaces for the production of this type of result of the unit's activity.

Extensive use of the economic potential for the internal effect of the processes of the enterprise management system expresses losses and technologically unreasonable waste of resources. The change in their value after the implementation of the management decision () in comparison with the base (Pr) reflects the change in the internal effect of management by extensive factors, i.e.

.

The resources involved in the processes are used productively and unproductively.

The productive use of resources is also divided into two parts. The first part is the consumption of resources, calculated on the basis of unit costs, which are recognized as rational (technologically necessary). The second part is the expenditure of resources that exceeds the rational unit costs. Such costs represent a waste of resources.

Unproductive use of resources occurs when products and services are not created. For example, the unproductive use of resources includes the costs of working time of employees, the costs production capacity equipment and materials to correct defects, to losses - absenteeism, whole-day and whole-shift downtime, unused capacity of installed equipment, irreparable defects, unused scientific and technical developments, damage to materials in the warehouse, etc.

The effect of implementing a management decision to achieve production goals is determined by an increase in the volume and quality of products and services, compliance with the terms of their provision to the consumer and is expressed in a change in the efficiency of their use by consumers; scientific and technical goals - in the effectiveness of the application of the developments of the enterprise in innovative processes; social goals - in saving time (increasing free time) and increasing the social activity of employees of the enterprise and consumers of the products and services of the enterprise; environmental goals - in reducing waste and increasing the volume of their disposal, landscaping, etc. Effect on social outcomes especially important for enterprises that provide various services to the population (utilities, transport, household, postal, Catering, trade, etc.). Effect on environmental results - for enterprises of the fuel, petrochemical and chemical industries.

The costs of developing and implementing a management decision include the entire set of costs for performing work both on our own and by third-party organizations (contractors), as well as for acquiring the necessary materials, equipment and other necessary resources.

The above approach is applicable only if the organization has the necessary initial data provided by an organized system for monitoring and accounting for process parameters at workplaces and departments, monitoring the needs and consumption of the company's products and services.

In advanced economies, it has long been a textbook cost approach in the management of organizations and, accordingly, in assessing the effectiveness of management decisions.

Reference. In the American capital market, the value concept is widely used in practice and the only one accepted in the scientific literature. In May 2010, KPMG, in collaboration with the State University - Higher School of Economics (SU-HSE), conducted a study on the application of value-based management methods by Russian companies. It showed the high relevance of cost management for Russian companies in the current market situation and interest for managers, since the growth of business value leads to an increase in the investment attractiveness and competitiveness of the organization.

The main idea of ​​the value management concept is that the main financial goal of the organization is the growth of its value (value) not only for the owners (shareholders), but also for all legal entities and individuals(management of the company's value in the interests of stakeholders). The concept of "value" in this concept of management is an internal category that characterizes the value, investment attractiveness of the company for owners, and is expressed as a monetary indicator of future growth opportunities.

Increase in value is an economic criterion that reflects the integral effect of the influence of management decisions implemented in an organization on all parameters by which its activities are evaluated (market share and strength of a competitive position, income, investment needs, operational efficiency, tax burden, regulation, flows Money and risk level) that allows ranking options in a multiple choice situation.

The cost management system was initially based on the premise that the top-down command-and-control style of making managerial decisions does not bring proper results, especially in large diversified corporations. Lower-level managers need to learn how to use cost indicators to make better and more effective management decisions. Cost management requires a reasonable balance of long-term and short-term performance goals. It, in fact, is the development, adoption and implementation of management decisions that ensure continuous reorganization aimed at achieving the maximum value of the business.

An important advantage of the cost approach in management is the fact that it offers management a single and understandable criterion for evaluating activities - cost. The business value growth parameter is a key tool for improving the quality and efficiency of management decisions, which allows creating a universal coordinate system for determining the vector of business development, as well as creating a single scale for changing the results achieved in accordance with the established strategy.

The process of managing the market value of a company uses the income approach to valuation of a company (business) as a basis. Under this approach, the value of a company is the sum of the cash flows that will be generated by the company, adjusted for time factors and related risks, less all of the company's liabilities.

Evaluating the effectiveness of a management decision by this method involves comparing two scenarios for the development of an organization "without the development and implementation of a management decision for a given situation-problem" and "provided that a management decision is developed and implemented for a given situation-problem."

Estimating the value of an organization in the first option is reduced to a forecast of cash flows for the enterprise as a whole, provided that nothing fundamentally changes in it in the billing period. This - discounted value business, which is determined by discounting the cash flow at a rate that takes into account the risks of the organization as a whole:

Where PV 0 - the discounted value of the organization during its development without solving existing situations-problems; CF 0i – expected cash flow in period r; r - discount rate; P - the number of periods during which the organization will generate cash flows (in years).

The cost of the organization in the scenario of implementing a management decision (strategic cost) is determined by discounting the cash flow adjusted for the project at an adjusted rate that takes into account both the risk of the organization as a whole and the risks of a management decision. It will be equal to the residual present value of the expected flows of the organization, subject to the implementation of the management decision, i.e. the cash flows of the organization under two scenarios of its development are combined:

Where PV C is the strategic value of the organization; CF c is the organization's strategic cash flow; CF pi is the cash flow generated by the implementation of the management decision.

Application capital market method and transactions to assess the increase in the value of an enterprise due to the implementation of a management decision, it is based on information about an analogue company implementing a similar solution. In this case, the similarity of solutions is determined by the following factors:

• maximum similarity of situations to be solved in compared organizations;
• general branch (functional) affiliation of compared situations;
• use of similar resources;
• comparability of the scale of situations and the radicalness of changes as a result of the implementation of a management decision.

To determine the increase in value created as a result of the implementation of a management decision, using the capital market method, market coefficients of an analogue company are used before and after the implementation of its solution to a similar situation, i.e.

where ∆ CV- increase in the market value of the company being valued due to the implementation of a management decision; E ok - current profit of the company being valued; - the ratio "price / profit" for a similar company after the implementation of a solution to a similar situation; – the price/earnings ratio for a similar company before implementing a solution to a similar situation.

The transaction method differs from the capital market method in that the price-to-earnings ratio for the peer company(s) is calculated by taking into account only the share prices of the peer company(s) that have been observed in the near past in actual large block purchase and sale transactions or at a corresponding share price quote. At the same time, large stakes are considered to be those, the purchase of which makes it possible to acquire at least a stake in the control over the company by introducing its representative (or oneself) to its board of directors, which allows controlling the company's management. Hence, finding an analogue company that implements a management decision for a similar situation, information on which is publicly available, is an extremely difficult and sometimes simply impossible task. In practice, this greatly complicates or makes it impossible to use the methods of the capital market and transactions to assess the effectiveness of management decisions.