Preliminary expert assessment;
marketing analysis;
technical assessment;
financial assessment;
institutional analysis;
risk assessment.

Carrying out a preliminary expert assessment of the business plan

Analysis of the state of an economic sector is carried out by assigning it to one of the following provisions:

Zrodyshevoy;
developing;
mature;
aged.

The second parameter involves assessing the competitiveness of an organization within the industry by assigning it to one of the following provisions:

Dominant;
strong;
favorable;
unstable;
weak;
unviable.

When comparing the obtained parameters, a matrix of the organization’s life cycles is formed.

Marketing analysis

Will the organization be able to sell the product provided for by the business plan being analyzed?
Will the company receive a sufficient amount of profit from the sale of the product?
Is the project compatible with the domestic and foreign policies of the state?

If the answer to at least one of these questions is negative, the business plan is subject to rejection.

Carrying out a technical assessment of the effectiveness of the business plan

Regarding the application of technology suitable for the implementation of the project;
on the analysis of regional conditions, including in terms of price and availability of materials, energy, labor resources.

Carrying out a financial assessment of the effectiveness of the business plan

Grade financial situation organization during the previous 3-5 years of operation of the organization;
assessment of the project's payback.

When assessing the payback of a project, within the expected period of its implementation, an analysis of the planned cash flows is carried out. These volumes should ensure coverage of the total investment.

From the point of view of financial parameters, the project can be accepted if generated from the issue valuable papers total cash flows provide coverage of the required rates of return.

The economic efficiency of capital investments is analyzed using the following methods:

- Method for estimating the payback period of investments:

where PP is the payback period, years;
I0 – initial investment;
CFt – net cash receipts from sales investment project in year t.

- Method for determining average annual profit:

Where T is the duration of the investment period;
Рt – cost estimate of the results obtained from the project during the time period t;
Зt – total costs of the project during the time period t;
m – number of intervals during the investment period.
A business plan can be considered economically attractive if this parameter- positive.

- Using the Simple Rate of Return (ARR) method:

where EBIT(1-H) is income after taxes, but before interest payments, equal to the product of income before interest and tax payments (EBIT) and the difference between the unit and the profit tax rate H;
and – the value of assets at the beginning and end of the period under review.

- Using the net income method (net value, NV):

where: D – total income for the project;
Z – total costs for the project.

- Using the net present value (NPV) method:

where E is the desired rate of profitability (discount rate);
I0 – initial investment of funds (investment costs),
CFt – net cash flow at the end of period t.

- Method for assessing return on investment:

- Using the internal rate of return (IRR) method:

Acceptable values ​​of the payback period are characterized by a period that is shorter than the calculation period and shorter than the return on investment period;
if NPV>0, then the project is effective and can be accepted: the higher the NPV value, the more effective the business plan;
if the value of the profitability index PI >1, then the project is effective;
if the value of the IRR indicator> discount rate, then the project is advisable.

Carrying out institutional analysis

Conducting an impact assessment internal factors carried out within the following blocks:

1. Management capabilities:
experience and qualification indicators of the organization's top officials;
motivation top managers;
factors of compatibility of top managers with the goals of the business plan.
2. Labor resource capabilities.
3. Opportunities organizational structure organizations with careful analysis of decision-making processes and delegation of authority.

Carrying out a risk assessment

Production - related to the possibility of failure to fulfill obligations to consumers of products;
financial – related to the possibility of non-fulfillment of loan obligations;
investment – ​​related to the possibility of depreciation of investment and financial portfolios;
market - associated with the possibility of fluctuations in prices, rates and exchange rates;
political – associated with possible losses from political changes.

The algorithm for analyzing the degree of influence of business plan risks is implemented according to the following scheme:

The outcome of the risk analysis is a description of the uncertainties inherent in the business plan. Next is carried out assessment of the effectiveness of the business plan for the limit values ​​of each risk parameter, NPV and IRR indicators are calculated for various conditions for implementing the business plan.

The next stage is the analysis of scenarios for the implementation of the business plan:

Optimistic;
standard;
pessimistic.

The conclusion about the possibility of successful implementation of a business plan can only be based on a pessimistic scenario.

Developed by other companies.

General sequence of analysis and evaluation of the effectiveness of a business plan

1. Preliminary expert assessment
2. Marketing analysis
3. Technical assessment
4. Financial assessment
5. Institutional analysis
6. Assessment of external factors
7. Risk assessment

Preliminary expert assessment of the business plan

Includes an assessment of the state of the economic sector (1st assessment criterion) to which the enterprise that developed the business plan belongs, and the comparative position of the enterprise within the industry (2nd assessment criterion).

The state of the industry is assessed by classifying it into one of 4 states:

• embryonic (for example, solar energy, etc.);
• growing (for example, production of DVDs, etc.);
• mature (watch production, etc.);
• aging (shipbuilding, etc.).

In accordance with the second criterion, it is necessary to establish the competitiveness of an enterprise within the industry to which it belongs, assigning one of six main status statuses: dominant, strong, favorable, unstable, weak, unviable.

Based on a comparison of criteria, a matrix of the enterprise life cycle is compiled.

The final stage of a preliminary expert assessment of the effectiveness of a business plan is to establish the position of the analyzed company according to the specified criteria, i.e. literally, which “cell” of the matrix this enterprise belongs to. The most promising projects are located in the upper left cells of the matrix. When positioned in the lower right corner, the project is most likely doomed to failure.

Analysis of the commercial feasibility of the project (marketing analysis)

The purpose of marketing analysis is to obtain answers to 2 questions:

1. Will the enterprise be able to sell the product (service) that is the result of the project?
2. Will the enterprise be able to receive a sufficient amount of profit from the sale of the product (service) to justify the investment project?

Initially, the focus of the project on the domestic or international market and its compatibility with the domestic or foreign policy of the state are determined. If incompatible, the project must be rejected.

Marketing analysis consists of the following blocks:

• market analysis;
• analysis of the competitive environment.

In the process of market analysis, a potential buyer is identified, the reasons for purchasing the product (service) and the method of making the purchase. Marketing analysis should include demand forecasting.

An assessment of the competitive environment should identify existing competitors of the enterprise, assess the possibility and significance of new participants (future competitors) entering the market, competition from substitute products, and the impact of institutional restrictions on the competitive environment.

Technical assessment of the effectiveness of the business plan

The task of technical assessment of the effectiveness of the project business plan includes:

• identification of technologies that are most suitable in terms of project goals;
• analysis of local conditions, including the availability and cost of raw materials, energy, labor;
• checking the potential for planning and implementation of the project.

Financial assessment of the business plan

General scheme for conducting a financial assessment of a business plan:

• analysis financial condition enterprises during the three (preferably five) previous years of operation of the enterprise;
• assessment of the project's payback during its implementation period.

When assessing the payback of a project during its implementation period, the cash flows that are obtained as a result of the project are analyzed. The volume of cash flows must cover the amount of the total investment, taking into account the time value of money. The project is accepted from the point of view of financial criteria if the total cash flow generated from the placement of a bond issue covers the required rate of return taking into account the time value of money.

The efficiency of capital investments is determined by the following methods:

• the method of net modern value of the investment project (NPV);
• internal rate of return (IRR).

Net modern value method (NPV method)
NPV=[sum]CF(k)/((1+r)^k)
CF - net cash flow
r - cost of attracted capital

The term "net cash flow" implies that each amount entering it is defined as the algebraic sum of the input and output flows.

Input cash flows:

• additional sales volume and increase in product price;
• reduction of gross costs (reduction of the cost of goods);
• residual value of the equipment cost at the end last year investment project;
• release of working capital at the end of the last year of project implementation (closing accounts receivable, selling inventory, shares and bonds of other enterprises).

Output cash flows:

• initial receipts Money in the first year(s) of project implementation;
• increasing needs for working capital in the first year(s) of project implementation (increasing accounts receivable to attract new customers, purchasing raw materials and components to start production);
• equipment repair and maintenance;
• additional non-production costs (social, environmental, etc.).

Method procedure:

Step 1. Determination of the modern value of each input and output cash flow.

Step 2. Determining NPV by summing all cash flows.

Step 3. Deciding whether to accept or reject the project:

• NPV => 0 - the project is accepted;
• NPV< 0 - проект отклоняется.

Internal rate of return (IRR) method

The internal rate of return is the value of the discount rate at which the current value of the investment is equal to modern meaning cash flows from investments, or the value of the discount rate, which ensures a zero net present value of cash investments.
The mathematical definition of the internal rate of return involves solving the following equation:

INV=[sum]CF(j)/((1+IRR)^j)
CF - input cash flow in the j-th period
INV - investment value

For precise definition IRR uses a special financial calculator or EXCEL.

Method procedure:

Step 1. Determining the IRR value.

Step 2. Decision making:

• if the IRR value is higher than or equal to the cost of capital, then the project is accepted;
• if the IRR value is less than the cost of capital, then the project is rejected.

Institutional analysis

The role of institutional analysis in assessing the possibility of successful implementation of a business plan, taking into account the organizational, legal, political and administrative environment. The task of institutional analysis is to assess the totality of internal and external factors accompanying the implementation of a business plan.

Expert assessment of internal factors:

1. Analysis of management capabilities:

• experience and qualifications of enterprise managers;
• motivation of managers as part of the implementation of the business plan;
• compatibility of managers with project goals.

2. Analysis of labor resources (compliance with the level of technology used).

3. Analysis of the organizational structure (analysis of the decision-making process, distribution of responsibilities).

Assessment of external factors

This point involves assessing the favorableness of the political, legal and macroeconomic environment for the implementation of the business plan.

Risk assessment

Main types of investment project risk:

• production risk- is associated with the possibility of the enterprise failing to fulfill its obligations to the customer;
• financial risk- the possibility of failure to fulfill financial obligations to investors due to use for financial activities borrowed money;
• investment risk - the possibility of depreciation of the investment and financial portfolio, consisting of both own and purchased securities;
• market risk - possible fluctuations in market interest rates on the stock market and exchange rates;
• political risk - possible losses from an unstable political situation.
• The risk assessment of the implementation of the business plan is carried out according to the following scheme:

1. Selecting the most uncertain and risky parameters of a business project (decrease in sales volumes, decrease in sales price, increase in unit cost, etc.).

2. Assessing the effectiveness of the project for the limiting values ​​of each parameter, calculating NPV and IRR for various conditions of project implementation.

3. Analysis of business plan implementation scenarios:

• optimistic;
• basic (normal);
• pessimistic.

  The conclusion about the possibility of positive implementation of the project should be based on a pessimistic scenario.

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Investments are a necessary resource without which it is impossible to imagine the effective operation of modern enterprises.

It is well known that a professionally developed business plan based on competent calculations is the key to success in business and a way to form a long-term strategy for a business entity in the field of economic activity.

However, many scientific publications force us to associate the low level of efficiency of investment activity in Russia with the imperfection of tools for assessing the effectiveness of investment projects, including their brief summary - business plans.

Table 1 presents a combination of actions and levels of responsibility of enterprise personnel when forming a business plan.

Having determined the points of responsibility for providing detailed information, let’s move on to describing the general sequence for assessing the effectiveness of a business plan.

Experience shows the effectiveness of analysis determined by the following steps:

• - preliminary expert assessment;
• - marketing analysis;
• - technical assessment;
• - financial assessment;
• - institutional analysis;
• - risk assessment.

Table 2. Levels of responsibility of enterprise personnel when creating a business plan

Carrying out a preliminary expert assessment of the business plan

At this stage, the assessment of the state of the economic sector set out in the business plan to which the organization that submitted the business plan belongs is checked, and the position of the organization within the industry.

An assessment of the economic efficiency of a business plan and the feasibility of an investment project and business plan can be divided into two main parts:

1) Preliminary estimate investment project at the stage of making a decision on developing a business plan.

At this stage, it is important to identify the feasibility of further detailed development of the investment project, as well as the development detailed business plan, examination of an investment project based on an existing business plan to assess the reliability and evidence of this document and assess the viability and feasibility of the investment project.

• 2) The process of performing work to evaluate investment projects includes several main stages:
  • - technical analysis of the possibility of implementing an investment project (timing, location, total costs in terms of technology, availability of resources and markets, technological processes);
  • - financial analysis of an enterprise applying for the implementation of an investment project;
  • - modeling of flows of products, resources and funds;
  • - calculation of investment project efficiency indicators for its participants;
  • - analysis of uncertainty and assessment of risks associated with the implementation of the project.

Risk assessment:

Evaluating a business plan always includes an assessment of the likelihood of the most pessimistic business development scenarios occurring. Main types of risk:

• - production risk - associated with the possibility of the enterprise failing to fulfill its obligations to the customer;
• - financial risk - possibility of non-fulfillment financial obligations to investors due to the use of borrowed funds for financial activities;
• - investment risk - the possibility of depreciation of the investment and financial portfolio, consisting of both own and purchased securities;
• - market risk - possible fluctuations in market interest rates on the stock market and exchange rates;
• - political risk - possible losses from an unstable political situation.

The risk assessment of the implementation of the business plan is carried out according to the following scheme:

• 1) Selecting the most uncertain and risky parameters of the business plan (decrease in sales volumes, decrease in sales price, increase in unit cost, etc.).
• 2) Assessing the effectiveness of the project for the limiting values ​​of each parameter, calculating NPV and IRR for various conditions of project implementation.

An assortment position is a specific model, trademark or the size of the products that the company sells. Most often, the company takes up the question of assortment immediately after developing a new type of product. This is a group of products that have similar characteristics, positions, and possibly similarity in functioning.

Most often, companies sell products of the same product group in whole sets.

The product assortment consists of all assortment groups; therefore, it is characterized by such components as:

• 1) Width - quantity assortment groups what is offered.
• 2) Depth - the number of positions in each of the assortment groups.
• 3) Comparability - target purpose for consumers of products, price range for goods and quality.

It is thanks to the wide range that it is possible to fulfill the various requirements of customers and develop a complex necessary measures in order to stimulate shopping in one specific place. A large variety contributes to making a purchase - this can be the size of packaging, and price categories of goods, different additives, in accordance with customer preferences, aromas, color, composition in some respects, and the like.

A deep assortment has the ability to satisfy a much larger number of different consumers in one product category, and at the same time make the most of trading platforms and offer a wide range of product prices.

The tasks of planning and assortment formation are, first of all, to prepare a “consumer” specification for the product.

In other words, in the formation of the assortment, the final say should belong to the heads of the enterprise’s marketing service, who must decide when it is more appropriate to invest in product modification, rather than incur additional increasing costs for advertising and selling an obsolete product or reducing its price. It is the head of the enterprise's marketing service who must decide whether the time has come to introduce new products to the range to replace existing ones or in addition to them.

Business project performance indicators are:

• - Profit
• - Profitability
• - Break even
• - Margin of financial strength
• - Payback period - PBP,
• - Accepted discount rate -D
• - Discounted payback period - DPBP

The next indicator characterizing the efficiency of an enterprise is profitability.

Profitability means the profitability of an enterprise.

Profitability is the result of the production process.

When preparing a business plan, the entrepreneur must specifically state what he wants to get from the investor and clearly show what he is willing to give. The business plan must be developed and presented in a simple and understandable manner for persons who have limited knowledge of the project and the market. It must be remembered that a business plan is a kind of advertising document, giving an idea not only about the business, but also about its owners.

3. EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE BUSINESS PLAN

In order to make a final decision on the implementation of this project, it is necessary to evaluate its economic efficiency. The economic efficiency of a project is the effectiveness of economic activity, determined by the ratio of the received economic effect(result) to the costs that determined the receipt of this effect.

The economic efficiency of the project is assessed during the calculation period, covering the time interval from the beginning of the project to its implementation. It is recommended to define the beginning of the billing period as the start date of investing funds in the project.

The main indicators used to calculate the economic efficiency of an investment project are:

1) PB (Payback Period) - the payback period of the project;

2) DPB (Discounted payback period) - discounted payback period;

3) ARR (Average rate of return) - average rate of return;

4) NPV (Net Present Value) - net present value;

5) IRR (Internal Rate of Return) - internal rate of return

6) PI (Profitability Index) - return on investment;

Let's consider the methodology for calculating these indicators.

1. Project payback period:

The payback period is the time required to cover the initial investment from the net cash flow generated by the investment project.

Calculation of the indicator:

PB - payback period.

In order for a project to be accepted, the payback period must be less than the duration of the project.

РВ = 3,000,000: ((3,903,618 + 5,657,417 + 7,835,731) : 36)) = 3,000,000: 483,243.50 = 6.2

As we can see from the calculation, the payback period of the project is 6 months. It is during this period that the initial investment in the amount of 3 million rubles will pay off.

The duration of the project is 36 months, respectively, the payback of the project is guaranteed, which allows us to draw conclusions about the attractiveness of this project.

However, the implementation of the business plan is carried out over time (within 3 years), therefore the annual discount rate is set at 20%. To determine the payback of the project taking into account the discount rate, we need to calculate the discounted payback period.

The discounted payback period is calculated similarly to the simple payback period, however, when summing up the net cash flow, it is discounted.

Calculation of the indicator:

where Investments is the initial investment;

CFt - net cash flow for the month;

r - annual discount rate;

DPB - discounted payback period.

DPB = 3000000: ((3903618: (1+0.20) + 5657417: (1+0.2)+7835731: (1+0.2) / 36) = 3000000: ((3253015+3928762+4534567) / 36) = 3000000: 325454 = 9.2

As we can see from the calculation, the discounted payback period of the project is 9 months, which is 2 months longer than the simple payback period, however, the discounted payback period of the project is also less than the total project period (36 months), accordingly the project is economically feasible.

Another indicator that determines the economic efficiency of a project is the average rate of return.

The average rate of return represents the profitability of a project as the ratio between the average annual revenues from its implementation and the amount of initial investment.

Calculation of the indicator:

where Investments is the initial investment

CFt - net cash flow of the project

N is the duration of the project (in years);

ARR is the average rate of return.

ARR = (3903618+5657417+7835731): (3 * 3000000) = 17396766: 9000000 = =1.93

We obtained an average rate of return equal to 193%. This indicator determines the rate of return for each ruble invested. As we can see from our project, the enterprise (investor) receives 93% of the return on investment in the project. The resulting rate is very high, which allows us to conclude that this project is highly profitable and not only quick payback, but also about further efficient work in this area of ​​trade.

Since funds are distributed over time, the time factor plays an important role here too.

When evaluating investment projects, the method of calculating net present value is used, which involves discounting cash flows: all income and costs are reduced to one point in time.

The central indicator in the method under consideration is the NPV (Net Present Value) indicator of net present value - the current value of cash flows minus the current value of cash outflows. This is the generalized final result of investment activity in absolute terms.

For a one-time investment, the calculation of net present value can be represented by the following expression:

where R k – annual cash receipts for n years, k = 1, 2, …, n;

IC – initial investment;

i – discount rate;

NPV is net present value.

An important point is the choice of discount rate, which should reflect the expected average level of loan interest in the financial market. To determine the effectiveness of an investment project, the weighted average price of capital used by the enterprise to finance this investment project is used as the discount rate. In our case, the net present value will be:

NPV = (3903618/ (1+0.2) + 5657417/ (1+0.2) + 7835731/(1+0.2)) - 3000000= 3253015+ 3928762+4534567-3000000=8,716,344

The NPV indicator is an absolute increase, since it estimates how much the present income covers the present costs:

· if NPV > 0, the project should be accepted;

at NPV< 0 проект не принимается,

· at NPV = 0 the project has neither profit nor loss.

According to these calculations, we can conclude that the NPV of the project is greater than 0, that is, the reduced income covers the total amount of reduced costs and in absolute terms amounted to + 8,716,344 rubles.

It should be noted that the NPV indicator reflects a forecast assessment of changes in the economic potential of an enterprise if this project is adopted. One of the important properties of this criterion is that the NPV indicator of various projects can be summed up, since it is additive over time. This allows you to use it when analyzing the optimality of an investment portfolio.

To further determine the feasibility of our project, we calculate the internal profitability of the project. The Internal Return (investment rate of return - IRR) is understood as the value of the discount factor at which the NPV of the project is equal to zero.

The meaning of calculating this coefficient when analyzing the effectiveness of planned investments is as follows: IRR shows the maximum permissible relative level of expenses that can be associated with a given project. For example, if a project is financed entirely by a loan from a commercial bank, then the IRR value shows the upper limit of the acceptable level of the bank interest rate, above which the project will be unprofitable.

In practice, any enterprise finances its activities, including investment, from various sources. As payment for the use of financial resources advanced into the activities of the enterprise, it pays interest, dividends, remuneration, etc., i.e. bears some reasonable costs to maintain its economic potential.

The indicator characterizing the relative level of these expenses can be called the “price” of advanced capital (CC).

Let's determine the rate of return on investment for our project. To do this, two values ​​of the discount factor r1 are selected

,

where r1 is the value of the tabulated discount factor at which f(r1)>0 (f(r1)<0);

r2 - the value of the tabulated discount factor at which f(r2)<О (f(r2)>0)

Table 34

Discount rate calculation

Fig.1. Net present value

For calculation we take the values ​​r1 = 0.2 r2=0.7

IRR= 0.2+(8716343.36/(8716343.36-2848727.03))* (0.7-0.2) = 0.2+ 0.74=0.94 or 94%.

where Investments is the initial investment;

CFt - net cash flow for the month;

IRR - internal rate of return.

(3903618/(1+0,94)+5657417/(1+0,94)+7835731/(1+0,94)-3000000 = 0

4589154,48-3000000 >0

In essence, IRR characterizes the expected profitability of a project. If the IRR exceeds the price of capital used to finance the project, this means that after payments for the use of capital there will be a surplus that goes to the enterprise. In a project, the IRR exceeds the price of capital and, therefore, accepting a project in which the IRR is greater than the price of capital increases the welfare of the enterprise. So, if:

IRR > CC. then the project should be accepted;

IRR< CC, то проект следует отвергнуть;

IRR = CC, then the project is neither profitable nor unprofitable.

According to the project's calculations, IRR >CC, therefore, the project should be accepted.

The final stage of assessing the effectiveness of the project is to determine the Profitability Index (PI). The Profitability Index (PI) is calculated using the formula:

PI= ((3903618/(1+0.2) + 5657417/(1+0.2)+ 7835731/(1+0.2))/3000000=

11716344/3000000 = 3,9

It's obvious that this project has a high profitability index of 3.9 since the normative data are at PI > 1, then the project should be accepted;

PI< 1, то проект следует отвергнуть;

PI = 1, then the project is neither profitable nor unprofitable.

In contrast to the net present effect, the profitability index is a relative indicator. Thanks to this, it is very convenient when choosing one project from a number of alternative ones that have approximately the same NPV values, or when completing a portfolio of investments with the maximum total NPV value.

Consequently, the calculation of the profitability index also confirms not only the economic feasibility of the project, but also significant economic benefits for investors of this enterprise.

Let's summarize all calculations in table 3.1

Table 3.1

Calculation of performance indicators