Financial plan business plan: how to make calculations to analyze the financial position of an enterprise + formulas for calculating efficiency + 3 stages of risk calculation.

Business must make money. This is an unwritten rule for all entrepreneurs.

But we don't always get what we want. Due to certain circumstances, the level of income may fall sharply.

The financial plan of a business plan is not only aimed at identifying holes in the project, it makes it possible to carry out a correction of activities for 1 - 5 years in advance.

What is the financial plan of a business plan?

To understand what the structure of this component of the business should be, let's figure out what a financial plan is. What goals and objectives should you pursue to improve your own project.

The financial plan is a priority section for both a new enterprise and market veterans.
Displays all activities in numbers, helping to increase profitability and adjust, if necessary, development priorities.

A very unstable market makes experts, when analyzing a business, pay attention not only to mathematical calculations of the potential income of companies.

The level of demand and the social component of the field of activity in which it develops are taken into account.

High competition in the market, constant rise in prices for raw materials, depletion of energy sources - all this affects the economic component in business development. under the influence of all these factors is very difficult.

Purpose of the financial plan- keep under control the level between the profit and expenses of the organization, so that the owner always remains in the black.

To achieve positive results, it is imperative to find out:

• size Money to supply the production process with raw materials without loss of quality;
• What investment options do you have and how profitable are they?
• a list of all expenses for materials, salaries to employees of the company, an advertising company for the product, a communal apartment and other nuances for providing;
• how to achieve high performance the profitability of your business project;
• best strategies and methods to increase investment;
• preliminary results of the enterprise for a period of more than 2 years.

The result of efforts will be effective tool on investment management, which will make it clear to investors how stable and profitable your business is.

Mandatory reporting in sections of the financial plan for the business plan

In order to correctly predict the financial development of an organization, it is necessary to build on current indicators - this issue is dealt with by accounting.

Show all the nuances economic situation enterprises will help 3 forms of reporting. Let's analyze each of them in more detail.

Form No. 1. Funds flow

Following Order No. 11 of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, each organization conducting financial activities is obliged to submit an annual report on the movement of funds through the accounting department.

The exceptions are small businesses and non-profit organizations– their performance analysis can be carried out without it.

It is almost impossible to draw up a financial plan for a business plan correctly without such reporting.

The document displays the movement of cash flows within the organization over time - which is very important to know for analyzing the state of the company.

The report allows you to:

• find holes in financing and close them without resorting to stopping production;

identify items of expenditure that are redundant.

Thus, there will be extra money that can be directed in the right direction;

• when forecasting in the future, use reliable information on the financial condition of the enterprise;
• anticipate additional articles expenses and allocate part of the funding for them in advance in order to avoid problems in the future;

find out how the business pays off.

You will be able to decide which direction will be a priority for the next 1-2 years. Where additional investment is required, and what should be covered at all.

Form number 2. Income and expenses of the organization

Provides an opportunity to see the potential profitability of the enterprise when financing various directions activities.

The document records all the costs of doing business. There are simplified and complete forms for submitting information.

The simplified form contains:

• profit excluding value added tax and excises;
• spending on technical support enterprises and the cost of goods;
• interest rate payable to tax authorities and other expenses / income of the organization;
• net income/loss for the calendar year.

The purpose of using this document when you are preparing the financial plan of a business plan is to identify potentially profitable areas that are worth developing in the future.

When making a forecast, consider:

• possible sales volume of the product;
• additional spending on production, due to the volatility of the financial market for raw materials and services;
• amount fixed costs for the production component.

The statement will allow you to identify products that are in high demand and remove production, where demand is minimal, in order to increase the cash flow of the enterprise.

Form number 3. Overall balance

Any business plan must contain information about the assets and liabilities of the enterprise.

Based on it, the owner can evaluate the overall progress of affairs, starting from indicators of net income and cash flow.

Compiled at intervals from 1 month to 1 year.

Practice has shown that the more often the overall balance is analyzed, the easier it is to identify problems in the business plan and eliminate them at the initial stage.

Components of the financial report:

Assets are all available funds that an organization can dispose of in its sole discretion.

For greater clarity, they are distributed, depending on the type or placement.

Liabilities - display resources that allow you to get those same assets.

It is possible to use the purpose of allocated funds for future business financing.

Roughly speaking, assets and liabilities are the same indicators, but in a different interpretation.

It is impossible to make adjustments to the financial plan without this report. It helps to track and eliminate gaps in the work of the enterprise in advance.

An integrated approach to the study of these 3 sources of the financial condition of the project will help to impartially assess the progress of affairs. Numbers never lie.

Estimated component of the financial plan

After studying the financial condition of the enterprise, you need to analyze the possible risks and calculate the best ways to make a profit in the business.

Here it is necessary to divide the process into 3 stages, each of which will be considered in more detail below.

Stage 1. Accounting for risks in the financial plan of the business plan

Risk is a noble cause, but not in business. Drawing up a financial plan is aimed at preventing unpleasant situations.

Your goal is to consider all possible outcomes and choose the path that involves the least loss of money.

Risks are divided by sphere of influence into 3 types:

1. Commercial- the cause of occurrence is the relationship with and business partners, as well as the influence of environmental factors.

   External factors of commercial risks:

   • decrease in demand for manufactured products;
   • the emergence of unforeseen competition in the market;
   • fraud on the part of business partners (low-quality raw materials, delays in the delivery of equipment and goods, etc.);
   • volatility in prices for services and technical support of the business.

   This is not the whole list of external reasons that may affect the project.

   It is necessary to build on the scope of the organization and adapt to each case on an individual basis.

2. Financial- unforeseen items of expenses in business or receiving unforeseen profits.

   Reasons for financial risks:

   • delay in payment for products by buyers and other types of receivables;
   • increase in rates by creditors;
   • innovations in the legislative system, which entail an increase in prices for maintaining a business;
   • instability of the currency in the world market.

   Financial risks allow you to foresee unexpected losses in your business and protect yourself from a complete collapse in advance.

3. Production– change in the operating mode of the enterprise due to unforeseen circumstances.

   Reasons for production risks:

   • incompetence of workers, protests and strikes that disrupt the work schedule of the enterprise;
   • production of low-quality products leading to a decrease in the number of sales;
   • the production process misses such an item as checking the quality of products.

   If you do not pay attention to these problems when drawing up a financial plan, a business can suffer huge losses.

To prevent such outcomes, the owner must take preventive measures. These include risk insurance, analysis of the activity of competitors in the market and the accumulation of a reserve for unforeseen financial expenses.

Stage 2. Effectiveness of the financial plan

An important step in creating a financial plan. Business profitability and its payback are the main indicators of effective activity in the market.

An analysis of these aspects will make it possible to predict a year ahead further development enterprises.

Let's look at what indicators are the most significant when drawing up a financial plan:

Net present value(Net Present Value - NPV) - the amount of expected profit based on the current cost of the product.

Why is it necessary to calculate this indicator?

Discounted income shows the potential payback of investments made in the business with the expectation of 1-2 quarters in advance.

Reasons for changing NPV:

• investments bring predicted profit;
• inflation;
• risk of losing investment.

If the calculations showed the value - "0", you have reached the point of no unprofitability.

Business Profitability- a comprehensive indicator of financial performance.
The concept shows the owner how successful his business is and whether it consistently generates income.

With a negative value, your company incurs only losses.

Profitability indicators are divided into 2 groups:

1. Sales ratio- percentage of income from each unit of currency.

   The indicator gives an idea of ​​the correctness pricing policy business and the ability to keep costs under control.

2. Profitability of an asset- the relative value of performance.

   Allows you to see the possibility of extracting profit from the enterprise.

The financial plan should provide for measures to increase the profitability indicator through organizational and financial procedures.

Payback period- a time indicator of the period of full payback of funds invested in the business.

Based on this value, investors choose business projects, which make it possible to recoup the invested money in the shortest possible time and move on to direct profit.

Allocate a simple and dynamic indicators of the payback of the project.

In the first case, this is the period of time for which the investor will receive back the invested money.

With a dynamic indicator, data on the value of cash are taken into account, depending on the inflation threshold throughout the entire time.

The dynamic indicator is always higher than the simple payback period.

The table below shows the formulas for calculating the 3 main performance indicators that will be required when drawing up a financial plan for a business plan:

Conduct necessary calculations the easiest way is through a specialized software at your enterprise.

If you are a private trader and only, then use the demo versions of accounting software products. They will significantly reduce the time for calculations when drawing up a financial plan.

Stage 3. Final analysis

The more nuances you notice when drawing up a financial plan for a business plan, the fewer problems will await you in the future.

It will take a lot of time to create a plan from scratch, it is much easier to make adjustments weaknesses and bring the business to a permanent profit.

When a financial plan can be called successful:

• high rates of income with minimal costs of money;
• forecasting and elimination of risks at the initial stages;
• comparing the competitiveness of your idea with others;
• availability of investments and material and technical base;
• documentary evidence of the profitability of the enterprise.

Details on the formation of a financial plan

and about its main components in this video:

business plan financial plan contains a lot of subtleties, but we have successfully considered the basics that must be present without fail.

The right approach to doing business starts with the simplest thing - analysis. The numbers will point out shortcomings and give an impetus in the right direction to increase the profitability of the enterprise.

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It is hard to imagine a business plan for which you would not have to create calculations. Certain calculations require all parts of the business plan: marketing, operational, production.

But the most important in terms of calculations is the financial part of the business plan. It is she who allows you to identify how profitable and sustainable the business will be created.

The financial part should answer the following questions:

• How much money will you need to start a business?
• How much profit will it bring?
• How soon will the business pay off?
• How sustainable and profitable will it be?

Each of these questions is answered by one of the parts of the business plan. This means that in the structure of the financial part of the business plan there will be such sections as investment costs, profit and loss forecast, cash flow and project efficiency assessment.

Investment costs

The first thing to do when writing a business plan is to calculate in detail how much it will cost to create a business. This will allow the entrepreneur himself to understand how much money is needed to start a business and whether it is necessary to attract loans.

In this part of the business plan, you need to take into account all the items of expenses associated with starting a business. For clarity, it is worth referring to an example. Consider a business plan for the construction of a car wash for two posts. You will have to invest both in the construction itself and in the purchase of equipment. IN general view the list of investment costs for this business would look like this:

• Design work
• Procurement of building materials and construction work
• Connection to electricity, water supply and other engineering networks
• Purchase of equipment
• Installation of equipment

According to Aidar Ismagilov, the owner of the Moidodyr car wash network in Kazan, the construction of a car wash will cost 30-35 thousand rubles per square meter, taking into account design work and making communications. As a result, the amount turns out to be quite solid, so now renting is more popular among novice businessmen, rather than turnkey construction. In this case, the investment plan will include both rent payments before opening a business and renovation of the premises.

Equipment costs will depend on the type of sink. If the car wash is of a manual type, then it will be enough to lay 400 thousand rubles for equipment. But for an automatic car wash, the costs will be at least 300 thousand euros.

For calculations, it is better to take a certain average price for each of the cost items. For example, if you need to calculate the cost of renting real estate, you should take into account not the highest and not the most low price per square meter, and the average price in the market. You can determine it by examining the rental offers in your city.

Another thing is if the supplier and his price are already known in advance. For example, a car wash requires only equipment from a strictly defined manufacturer. Then in the calculations you need to include exactly the prices that he offers.

Knowing the required amount of investment will allow not only to estimate how much money will be needed to start a business, but also how quickly it will pay off.

Profit and Loss Forecast

If you subtract the amount of business expenses from the amount of business income, you can find out what is the net profit. This indicator is much better than income, shows what the state of the business is and how much you need to invest in its further development.

At the beginning of a business, expenses often exceed income, and instead of net profit, there is a net loss. In the first months or even a year of work, this is a normal situation. You should not be afraid of it: the main thing is that the loss is reduced every month.

When making a profit and loss forecast, all indicators should be calculated monthly until the business pays off. At the same time, you should not make the forecast too optimistic: imagine that the income will not be the maximum possible, take the average figures.

Cash Flow

For a business that is still at the start-up stage, it is important to understand not only what its net profit will be. One of key indicators is the so-called cash flow or cash flow. By calculating the cash flow, you can determine what financial condition business and how effective investments in it are.

Cash flow is calculated as the difference between cash inflows and outflows over a given period. If we return to the car wash example, then in order to calculate the cash flow in the first month of its operation, it is necessary to take net profit for receipts, and the amount of initial investment for outflows.

In this case, it will be more convenient to calculate if the outflows are designated as a negative number. That is, we add a minus sign to the amount of initial investment in a car wash, and add the net profit in the first month of work to the resulting number.

To calculate the cash flow in the second month, you need to find the difference between the result of the first month and the net profit received in the second month. Since the first month turned out to be a negative number, the net profit must be added to it again. The cash flow in all subsequent months is calculated according to the same scheme.

Project efficiency assessment

Having predicted profits and losses, as well as the cash flow of a business, it is necessary to move on to one of the most important sections - evaluating its effectiveness. There are many criteria by which the effectiveness of the project is evaluated. But for a small business, it is enough to evaluate only three of them: profitability, break-even point and payback period.

Profitability business - one of the most important indicators. In general, in the economy there are many different indicators of profitability - return on equity, return on assets, return on investment. All of them allow you to evaluate the effectiveness of a business in its various aspects.

To understand exactly which profitability indicators should be calculated in your business plan, you need to refer to the requirements of an investor or a credit institution. If the goal is to evaluate the profitability of the business "for yourself", it will be enough to calculate the overall profitability of the business.

Make it simple. It is enough to divide the profit of the business by the amount of its income, and then multiply the resulting number by 100 to get the result as a percentage.

It is difficult to name the optimal indicator of business profitability. It largely depends on the size of the business, the type of activity of the company. For micro-businesses with revenues up to 10 million rubles, a profitability indicator of 15 - 25% is considered good. The larger the business, the lower the percentage received can be. In the case of a car wash, the normal rate of return is from 10 to 30%, says Aidar Ismagilov.

Another indicator that needs to be calculated is break even. It allows you to determine at what income the company will fully cover its costs, but so far will not make a profit. You need to know this in order to understand how strong the business is financially. To find the break-even point, you first need to multiply the business income by its fixed costs, then subtract the variable costs from the income, and then divide the first number obtained by the second.

Fixed costs are those that do not depend on the volume of goods produced or services rendered. Businesses incur such expenses even when they are idle. In the case of a car wash, these costs include the salaries of accountants and administrators, public utilities and communications, depreciation, loan payments, property taxes, and so on.

Variable costs are anything that changes with the volume of production. For example, at a car wash, the costs that change with an increase or decrease in the number of washed cars are the cost of auto chemicals, water consumption, and piecework wages.

Having received a certain number as a result of the calculations, you can correlate it with the income statement. In the month when the business income reaches or exceeds the amount obtained as a result of calculating the break-even point, it will be reached.

Most often, the break-even point is not reached in the first month of the business, especially if it is related to production. According to Aidar Ismagilov, in the case of a car wash, reaching the break-even point depends on the season. If the car wash opened during the dry summer season, when there is little demand for services, they will be unprofitable throughout that season. If the opening took place during the season of high demand, then you can reach the break-even point in the first month.

Payback period business is one of the most important indicators not only for the entrepreneur himself, but also for his potential investors. For example, if the payback period for a business is too long, then it becomes much more difficult to get a loan for it from a bank.

The easiest way to calculate the payback period is if the cash flow has already been calculated. In this case, you need to find the month in which, after adding a positive number of net income with a negative number of initial investments, you get a positive number. This will mean that the profit from the business fully covered the initial investment in it.

It is for this reason that it is necessary to calculate cash flow, as well as profits and losses, at least until the payback period is reached. The payback period of investments largely depends on the amount of investment costs. In the case of a car wash, the minimum period is 3 years.

Here are the main indicators that will need to be calculated in a business plan at the start of any business. Of course, this is far from an axiom, and depending on the requirements of investors, the state of the enterprise, its type of activity and other features, additional calculations may be required. Most of them you can do on your own.

Considers issues financial support activities of enterprises, firms, organizations and most effective use available financial resources based on an assessment of current financial information and a forecast of the volume of sales of goods and services in the markets in subsequent periods.

The financial plan is developed in the form of the following forecast financial documents:

• forecast financial results;
• projecting cash flow;
• forecast balance of the enterprise.

As a rule, the forecast period covers 3-5 years. Consider the sequence of designs using the same example of an enterprise that has already worked in the field of food production and wants to produce the new kind products. He is interested in how the results of activities will develop in the future, taking into account the new production program.

Forecast of financial results

The purpose of the forecast of financial results is to present the prospects for the activities of the enterprise in terms of profitability (Table 1). Investors will be especially interested in the level of profitability in the coming period, as they can see what share of the profits the enterprises will receive.

1st, 2nd year, etc. are the years of the forecast period, beginning with the year following the business plan development (base year).

The starting position for compiling this forecast is planning the volume of sales in physical and value terms. In this case, the calculations are carried out for all types of products, and then summarized in the result presented in Table. 1 (line 1).

Subtracting from net sales, we get the gross profit. Cost indicators have already been calculated in the section " Production plan» of the business plan in question.

Table 1. Forecast of financial results, thousand rubles

Operating costs include the costs of developing a new type of product, marketing research, administrative and marketing costs.

The indicator "Balance sheet profit" (line 6) is obtained by subtracting operating costs and the amount of interest paid from gross profit.

Taxes from profits in our example are significant - 50% of book profit minus the amount of past losses carried forward (negative profit). Loss carry forwards are determined by adding last year's retained earnings (if negative) to current year's net income.

The difference between the balance sheet profit (line 6) and the corresponding amount of income tax paid (line 7) gives the net profit indicator (line 8).

This indicator, along with indicators of net sales and cost products sold are fundamental for further analysis of the dynamics of possible changes in the financial situation over the five years.

As a rule, such calculations are of a multivariate nature depending on the expected sales volume, prices, production costs (optimistic forecast, pessimistic forecast, average forecast).

Cash flow design

This projection does not reflect income and expenses, but the actual receipt of funds and their transfer (Table 2). That is why the final figure of the cash flow projection reflects the balance of the company's cash flow. The forecast of financial results can be transformed into a cash flow projection through a number of adjustments.

In the projection of financial results, the estimated values ​​of income from sales, net profit are shown. In contrast, cash flow reflects the actual receipt of sales revenue. To move from actual to calculated indicators, it is necessary to take into account the expected timing of receipt of sales payments.

If the forecast of financial results reflects the costs incurred in a given period, then the cash flow projection shows the actual payment of these costs. It should be taken into account that some costs may be covered immediately, while others - after a certain period of time. To carry out the harmonization of indicators, it is necessary to understand the nature of the credit policy of the enterprise.

It should be borne in mind that in the initial period of the existence of an enterprise, its position with funds will be much more important than profitability, since this factor most accurately characterizes its viability.

Table 2. Projection of cash flow, thousand rubles.

The cash flow projection reflects the flow of all money from all sources, including not only proceeds from the sale of products, but also proceeds from the sale of shares or funds borrowed from the sale of certain assets.

In our example, it is assumed that the minimum cash balance will be 7 thousand rubles. The funds are planned to come from sales of manufactured products (line 1) and proceeds from the sale of company shares in the first two years of the forecast period (225 thousand rubles and 125 thousand rubles, respectively). The level of proceeds from sales will depend on the nature of settlements with buyers of products.

When designing the expenditure of funds, the amounts of operating costs are planned, for payment of direct labor costs, the raw materials used (depending on the volume and range of products).

Line 5 "Capital investments" reflects the expenditure of funds to replenish fixed assets (purchase of equipment, etc.) in the amounts provided for in the design of the "Production plan" section.

In our example, the development of production in the forecast period will occur at the expense of the enterprise's own funds, their replenishment through additional issue of shares, as well as short-term loans. Long-term lending is not provided, so line 6 contains zero values ​​for this indicator. Payment of interest on loans (line 7) is carried out only on short-term loans, taking into account the terms of the loan.

Having calculated the income and expenditure of funds by years, we obtain such an important indicator as net cash flow (line 8), as well as the balance of cash flow (line 9). Given the need to maintain reserve funds (the last line) and the volume of repayment of short-term loans already taken, it is possible to calculate the required volume of loans for the forecast periods.

When designing cash flow, keep the following in mind:

• the uncertainty of most financial and other projections increases with the expansion of the time range: for the first 12-24 months, monthly and quarterly projections are quite acceptable; long term— annual designs;
• when determining the amount of funds to start production new products almost impossible to calculate the amount of working capital without monthly cash flow projection.

The calculation of the monthly cash flow can become the basis for developing a number of goals, thanks to which it becomes possible to manage the enterprise and correctly assess the results actually achieved by it.

Enterprise balance design

As you know, the balance sheet does not reflect the results of the company's activities for any period of time, but is its instant "snapshot", showing from a financial point of view its strengths and weak sides for now. The balance sheet brings together the assets of the enterprise (what it has), its liabilities (how much and to whom it owes), as well as equity.

Balance projections are compiled, as a rule, at the end of each year from the forecast five-year period (Table 3). These balance sheets are compiled on the basis of the original balance sheet of the base year, taking into account the expected features of the enterprise's development in the forecast period (changes in financial results, operating characteristics, attraction of own and borrowed funds, etc.).

It is believed that this document is less important than projections of financial results and cash flow, but it is the predictive bank that specialists (lenders, investors) carefully study in order to assess what amounts will be invested in assets and at what expense of liabilities.

When preparing balance sheet designs, it is necessary to pay attention to Special attention to the following features:

• even if the enterprise is just starting to work, some part of the assets must be formed at the expense of its own funds;
• of great importance for creditors and investors is the share of equity capital, since significant financial obligations this kind will mean the seriousness of intentions to develop entrepreneurship;
• the level of liquidity of the balance sheet plays a significant role, since having sufficient liquidity, the company can afford a more maneuverable policy.

Table 3. Projection of balance sheet indicators by years, thousand rubles

When designing the balance sheet, it was taken into account that the “Cash” item includes short-term investments, and their level is maintained at the minimum balance value (7 thousand rubles) by attracting short-term loans. The main assets include capital investments aimed at purchasing equipment that is depreciated for more than five years.

When designing liabilities, the need to obtain short-term loans to finance the cash deficit and maintain a minimum cash balance is taken into account. Equity capital includes the existing initial investments (55 thousand rubles) of the co-founders of the enterprise, as well as the planned issue of shares, which in the first and second years of the forecast period can provide the necessary inflow of funds for the successful launch of this production.

Retained earnings include gains and losses from the first year. Previous costs are included in pre-production costs and are planned to be reimbursed within 10 years in equal installments.

After the design of the financial section of the business plan, they proceed to an express analysis of the financial activities of the enterprise in the forecast period.

Express analysis of predicted indicators

The financial plan is the most important section of business plans, which are drawn up not only to justify specific investment programs, but also to manage the current and strategic financial activities of the enterprise.

At the same time, a very important step financial planning is to conduct serious analytical work by calculating the most important relative indicators (financial ratios), the dynamic series of which allow you to determine the trends in the development of the financial situation at the enterprise when making specific decisions (in our case, when releasing new products).

Financial ratios are calculated on the basis of the data obtained during the design and comprehensively characterize the project under consideration. As a rule, at this stage of forecasting, the calculation of the most important indicators is carried out, giving an idea of ​​the level of solvency, profitability of the enterprise in the period under review.

The purpose of this kind of express analysis is to present in the most concrete form the development trends of the enterprise in the conditions of the declared action program, making a conclusion about the expediency (inexpediency) of implementing this project. Financial ratios calculated on the basis of the design results are included in the table financial summary(Table 5) and can largely influence the opinions of potential creditors and investors.

Here are some indicators that are calculated to assess the predicted results of the enterprise. These include: liquidity indicators, characterizing the ability to repay short-term debt; indicators characterizing the management of funds, - the period of inventory turnover, receivables, the period of repayment of accounts payable (Table 4).

For rate financial stability enterprise or the degree of dependence on debt obligations, the ratio of borrowed and own funds is calculated. It allows you to judge the stability of the company and its ability to raise additional funds.

Table 4. Projection of financial ratios

Profitability indicators include the rate of return (the ratio of net profit to net sales), return on equity (the ratio of net profit to equity) and return on assets (the ratio of net profit to the total assets of the enterprise).

Financial ratios that characterize the profitability of the enterprise, the expected level of solvency, along with other important indicators of the enterprise's activities, are included in the financial part of the summary business plan(section I).

For our example, the indicators of the financial summary are given in Table. 5. Forecast indicators of net sales, net profit for the coming period show a positive trend in the development of the enterprise (an increase in sales by the fifth year by more than four times, net profit - from negative values ​​in the first year of the period (-190 thousand rubles) to high enough in Last year(+317 thousand rubles). The conclusions about the good prospects for the development of the enterprise in the implementation of the goal (production of a new type of product) are supported by the values ​​of the calculated financial ratios (the rate of return increases from 0.0 to 11.2%; return on equity - from 0.0 to 53.6%; return on assets — from 0.0 to 36.2%).

From the calculations given in the financial section of the business plan, it can be seen that the current liquidity level of the balance sheet is unstable, however, starting from the fourth year of the forecast period, its values ​​exceed the normative level.

Table 5. Financial Summary

One of the most important indicators is the ratio of borrowed and own funds (see Table 5). In the second and third years, it is planned to increase this indicator, and in the third year to 156.1%, which reflects the company's tactics for forced short-term borrowing to cover the increasing volumes of working capital. However, in the fourth and fifth years, this indicator noticeably decreases.

The above calculations allow us to assert that the values ​​of financial ratios in the fourth and fifth years indicate good prospects for the development of the enterprise. In the first two years of its operation, financial difficulties will be quite tangible, although they will be overcome by a properly defined borrowing policy while maintaining a sufficient level of liquidity.

Sometimes a financial plan is concluded with a break-even analysis to show what the sales volume must be in order for the enterprise to break even. Such an analysis is of some importance for potential creditors of the enterprise.

A project business plan is necessary for both investors considering the possibility of investing their
funds to the project, and direct project executors at the operational level. Investors should see in the business plan a mechanism for generating income, understanding and trust in which are guarantees for them to return the invested funds, and managers will be guided by the business plan in the implementation of the project. The problem of business planning is too broad. Therefore, we will focus on one of the aspects, namely the basic formulas for calculating the effectiveness of a business plan.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of a business plan is designed to determine how much the size of investments corresponds to future income, taking into account the risks of the project. The main indicators of the effectiveness of an investment project include:

* Cash flow;
* net present value of the project (NPV);
* internal rate of return (IRR);
* investment profitability index (PI).

cash flow

The most accurate Russian definition of Cash Flow would be "Cash Flow". The most important task of analyzing a business plan is to calculate future cash flows arising from the implementation production products. Only incoming cash flows can ensure the implementation of the project as a whole.

When evaluating various projects, investors have to sum up and compare future costs, capital flows and financial balances at different planning intervals. Before comparing and adding up these capital flows, it is customary to bring them into a comparable form (discount, i.e. bring the future value to the present moment) for a certain date. In the process of discounting, the future amount (inflow, outflow and balance) is divided into two parts:

1. today's equivalent of the future amount (i.e. Present Value);
2. accruals on PV for a given number of years at a certain interest rate.

The definition of Cash Flow is of great importance in calculating the effectiveness of a business plan, since it is the basic criterion on which others (for example, NPV) are calculated. On the other hand, it is the resulting figure in terms of the budget approach.

In the business plan, Cash Flow is calculated as follows: Inflow (revenue from sales for the period) minus Outflow (investment costs, operating costs and taxes for the same period). To obtain the value of the cumulative Cash Flow, it is necessary to sum up its values ​​for each period on an accrual basis.

Net Present Value (NPV)

Net present value is the value obtained by discounting separately for each year the difference of all outflows and inflows of cash accumulated over the period of the project.

All cash flows are recalculated using reduction factors (DF), the values ​​of which are found in special tables calculated in advance for various discount rates and planning intervals. In practice, this looks like multiplying the estimated Cash Flow values ​​for each period of the investment project implementation by the corresponding reduction factor and their subsequent summation.

The economic meaning of the net present value can be thought of as the result obtained immediately after the decision to implement this project, because when calculating it, the influence of the time factor is excluded. A positive value of NPV is considered to be a confirmation of the expediency of investing funds in a project, while a negative value, on the contrary, indicates the inefficiency of their use. In other words:

If NPV If NPV = 0, then if the project is accepted, the welfare of investors will not change, but the volumes
production will increase;
If NPV > 0, then investors will make a profit.

The absolute value of the net present value (NPV) depends on two kinds of parameters. The first characterizes the investment process objectively and is determined production process(more products - more revenue, less costs - more profit, etc.). The second type is the comparison rate (RD), the reciprocal of the reduction coefficients. Determining the value of the comparison rate is the result of the subjective judgment of the compiler of the business plan, i.e. conditional value. Therefore, when analyzing an investment project, it is advisable to determine NPV not for one rate, but for a certain range of rates.

The project's net present value (NPV) is certainly affected by the scale of the activity, expressed in "physical" volumes of investment, production, or sales. This implies a natural limitation on the use of this method to compare projects that differ in this characteristic: a larger NPV value will not always correspond to a more efficient investment option. In such cases, it is recommended to use a measure of return on investment, also called the net present value ratio (NPVR). This indicator is the ratio of the net present value of the project to the discounted (current) value of investment costs (PVI).

Internal rate of return (IRR)

In practice, any enterprise finances its activities, including investment, from various sources. As a payment for the use of advanced capital, it pays interest, dividends, i.e. incurs reasonable costs to maintain its economic potential.

The indicator characterizing the relative level of these expenses can be called the "price" of the advanced capital. The enterprise can make any decisions of an investment nature, the level of profitability of which is not lower than the current value of the indicator of the "price" of the advanced capital. It is with the indicator of the price of advanced capital that the indicator of internal rate of return (IRR) calculated for a specific investment project is compared. It is often identified with the discount factor, since the former most often acts as a guideline, indicator and expresses one of the values ​​of the latter.

In Russia, IRR is also known as:

* internal rate of return on investment;
* cash discount factor;
* internal rate of return;
* rate of return of the discounted cash flow;
* internal rate of return;
* internal rate of return;
* verification discount.

The internal rate of return (IRR) is the discount rate at which the project's net present value (NPV) is zero, i.e. is the comparison rate at which the sum of discounted cash inflows equals the sum of discounted cash outflows.

When calculating the IRR, it is assumed that the net income received is fully capitalized, i.e. all available free cash must be either reinvested or used to pay off external debt. This is the lower guaranteed "threshold" of profitability of investment costs, and if it exceeds the average cost of capital in a given sector of investment activity, then the project can be recommended for implementation, i.e. IRR is the marginal lending rate that separates efficient and inefficient projects.

IRR determines the maximum rate of payment for attracted sources of project financing, at which the latter remains breakeven. In the case of assessing the effectiveness of total investment costs, this may be the maximum allowable interest rate on loans, and in assessing the efficiency of using equity, the highest level of dividend payments. For example, if the IRR is 18%, this is the upper limit of the interest rate at which a firm can pay back a loan to finance an investment project. Therefore, in order to make a profit, the firm must find financial resources at a rate of less than 18%.

All IRR components are determined by internal data characterizing the investment project, i.e. there are no expert assessments that introduce subjective elements. Consequently, IRR contains a lower level of uncertainty than NPV, which is especially important when analyzing the effectiveness of large projects.

IRR better shows the benefits of higher results compared to other indicators: the difference between the IRR and the discount rate directly shows the internal reserves of the project (within the difference, the investor's requirements for the rate of return on invested funds can be increased, because the income received exceeds the minimum required rate recoil).

Of course, IRR also has disadvantages:

* sometimes there may be more than one IRR indicator in the calculation;
* incommensurability with the criterion of net present value;
* does not take into account differences in the scale of the compared projects (i.e. in the amount of investment
capital).

Objectivity, lack of dependence on the absolute size of investments and a rich interpretative meaning make the indicator of the internal rate of return an exceptionally convenient tool for measuring the effectiveness of capital investments.

When using IRR, keep in mind that:

* subject to analysis investment projects, for which the difference between income and costs is positive or the ratio of income to costs is greater than 1;
* for analysis, projects are selected with an IRR of at least 15–20%;
* IRR must be compared with the interest rate in the monetary market;
* when justifying IRR, adjustments for project risks, inflation and taxes should be taken into account.

Return on Investment Index (PI)

This is the ratio of the return on capital to the amount of invested capital. PI shows the relative profitability of a project, or the discounted value of cash flows from a project per unit of investment.

Considering the PI criterion is useful when:

* current organizational costs are high in relation to investment costs;
* in projects where reliable income begins to flow at a fairly early stage of project implementation.

Most commonly, PI is calculated by dividing the net present value of a project by the cost of the initial investment. In this case, the decision criterion is the same as when making a decision on the NPV indicator, i.e. PI > 0. This criterion is a fairly perfect tool for analyzing the effectiveness of investments. In this case, three options are possible:

PI > 1.0 - investments are profitable and acceptable in accordance with the chosen discount rate;
PI PI \u003d 1.0 - the considered direction of investment exactly satisfies the chosen rate of return, which is equal to IRR.

Projects with high PI values ​​are more sustainable. However, one should not forget that very large PI values ​​do not always correspond to a high NPV value and vice versa. The fact is that projects with a high NPV are not necessarily effective, which means they have a very small profitability index.

When calculating efficiency importance has a choice of threshold value of profitability (Minimum rate of return). The higher the threshold value of profitability, the more the general indicators take into account the time factor, since it is the threshold value of profitability that is used as the reduction standard for the time factor (discount rate RD). Income and expenses that are more distant in time have less and less influence on their modern assessment.

The profitability threshold increases as risk increases. According to the classification of investments generally accepted in the world practice, the threshold value for risky capital investments is 25%. Other studies note that for conventional projects a value of 16% is acceptable, for new projects in a stable market - 20%, for projects with new technology - 24%.

As can be seen from our article Business Plan Calculation Formulas, each of the considered indicators carries a certain semantic and economic load. Therefore, it is advisable to carry out a comprehensive calculation of the effectiveness of investing funds for all of the above indicators. It is in this case that one can quite clearly determine whether the investment in the project will be successful.

The BiPlan website team wishes you success and good luck! We hope our article Business Plan Calculation Formulas helped you!

• Gross profit \u003d revenue - cost of production.
• Financial profit = financial income- financial expenses.
• Operating income = operating income - operating expenses.

The balance sheet profit is calculated as follows:

An important indicator is profitability, it is calculated as follows:

Most often, it is necessary to determine the return on capital, assets, products. The profitability of activities is calculated as the ratio of profit from sales to costs.

Important: for the base year when planning criteria economic efficiency the current year of the business plan is taken.

Cash flow planning

Cash flow planning includes a forecast of cash receipts from all sources, it can not only be income from sales, but also interest from the sale of shares or the lease of land.

When forecasting the movement of funds, the following aspects are taken into account:

• the total amount of money invested in starting a business;
• assets and liabilities of the firm;
• forecast of profit (income from sales and interest on rent) and losses (expenses on materials and wages of workers employed by, inflation, payment of interest on a loan);
• evaluation of financial efficiency.

In performance planning, all cash costs and revenues are discounted and brought to present value.

Table 1 - Example of cash planning

Index	1st year	year	3rd year	4th year	5th year
Cash	X	X	X	xx	xxx
The arrival of money
Sales revenue	X	X	xx	xxx	xxx
Proceeds from the sale of shares	xx	X
Total income
Spending of money
Operating costs
Payment of salary
Raw material
Other costs
Capital investment
Payment of interest on a loan	X	xx	xx	X
Repayment of accounts payable	X	X	X	X	X
Paying income taxes					xx
Total Expenses
Total cash

When making a forecast, it is important to take into account such aspects as the inflation rate (taking into account the optimistic and pessimistic options) and risks.

The activities of the firm may depend on:

• commercial risk (includes aspects such as problems with the sale of goods or the activities of competitors);
• financial risk (includes aspects such as insufficient financing of the project, inability to return borrowed funds);
• production risk (includes aspects such as poor equipment, low quality products) and is a part for investors.

The balance of assets and liabilities is compiled based on the calculation of net profit and cash turnover.

Enterprise balance forecast

The company's balance sheet contains specific indicators that reflect the success of the company. The forecast is made at the end of each year, and all the features of the company's activities for the coming year are taken into account. This may be a loan of funds or attracting investors.

After drawing up the balance sheet, you can see the rate of return, return on assets and capital, the ratio of own to borrowed funds in the future.

The company's balance sheet might look like this:

Table 2 - Balance sheet of the enterprise

Assets	1st year	2nd year	Liabilities and capital	1st year	2nd year
Working capital:			Short-term liabilities:
cash			short-term debt
accounts receivable			settlements with creditors and suppliers
inventory			Long-term debt
other			Tax debt
Main capital			Equity
Initial cost:			Profit to distribute
depreciation
book value of fixed capital
other
Money
Intangible assets
Total			Total

Summing up, reports are compiled containing financial indicators business plan. Namely, income and expense statement, cash flow statement, asset and liability statement.

financial plan as component business plan, involves the provision of all calculations for a period of up to 5 years, thanks to which you can see the main economic indicators, as well as identify the liquidity of the project model.

Features of different financial models

Clothing store:

1. This will require an initial capital of 900 thousand rubles.
2. Store cost planning will include the costs of rent, utility bills, purchase of goods and equipment, and labor costs. You also need to spend money on advertising the store.
3. The profitability of the clothing store will be about 50%.

Goose farm:

1. The financial model of a goose farm contains calculations for a large number indicators of economic efficiency, because the farm will need borrowed funds for the purchase of equipment and the arrangement of bird habitats, the lease or purchase of agricultural equipment and vehicles, the arrangement of a reservoir and places for birds to walk, and the rent of a slaughterhouse.
2. Opening a goose farm is a model of a large-scale project with large investments, but with a herd of 1000 heads (more than 70% of which are females), you can get an annual income of 9 million rubles.

Tattoo parlor:

1. The initial costs of the tattoo parlor are 800 thousand rubles.
2. The average amount left by one visitor is 2500 rubles.
3. The monthly expenses of the tattoo parlor are in the range of 85 thousand rubles.
4. Net profit is 100 thousand rubles.

An example of a coffee shop financial plan

When planning the financial model of a coffee shop, it is necessary to take into account what will depend on the location, prices, quality of service, as well as the services provided.

Table 3 - Financial performance indicators of the coffee house for the first year

Consider an example of a financial model when there is 1 million rubles to open a coffee shop. equity and 12 million in debt to be repaid within a year with an interest of 18%. We make a forecast for two years, since the project should pay off in a year.

Indicators	Total
Net profit (thousand rubles)	2668
Own funds(thousand roubles.)	1000
Product profitability (%)