Abasova Khadizhat Aydinovna, Postgraduate Student, Department of Corporate Finance, Financial University under the Government Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

Methodology for constructing the financial risk management system at oilfield service organizations

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Sources:

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Introduction

1. The concept of risk

2. Classification of risks

3. Fundamentals of risk management

4. Analysis of external and internal risk factors, risk monitoring

5. Risk assessment and optimization

6. Risk reduction methods

7. Risk management and evaluation of the effectiveness of risk management

Conclusion

Bibliography

Practical task

Introduction

Any production is associated with certain risks. - financial, natural, environmental, political, transport, property, industrial, trading, commercial, investment, risks associated with the purchasing power of money, inflationary and deflationary, currency, liquidity risks, lost profits, reduced profitability, direct financial losses, interest , credit, exchange, selective.

Concerning Agriculture as the largest component of the country's agro-industrial complex, it is associated, first of all, with natural, environmental risks, as well as the risks of reducing profitability. The former include the risk of crop failure due to unsatisfactory natural and climatic conditions, insect attacks and livestock deaths. Managing these risks is quite problematic, since their prevention is beyond the power of the product manufacturer. However, enterprises create special reserve funds in case of losses associated with these types of risks. Environmental risks - this is the deterioration of soil conditions, water pollution, etc. The risk of a decrease in profitability is associated with a steady trend of falling prices for agricultural products. products from prices in the country as a whole. Managing this risk - task of the state.

In order to form a system effective management risks, it is necessary to have trained specialists in the field of risk management. The existence of such huge amount varieties of risks that for each individual enterprise and manufacturer - own, necessitates their analysis, accounting and management.

1. conceptrisk

In general, under risk understand the possibility of some adverse event that entails various kinds of losses (for example, physical injury, loss of property, income below the expected level, etc.).

Entrepreneurial activity contains a certain amount of risk, which the entrepreneur must take upon himself, having determined the nature and extent of this risk. The Law of the Russian Federation "On Enterprises and Entrepreneurial Activity" defines entrepreneurship as "an initiative, independent activity of citizens and their associations, carried out at their own peril and risk, under their own property responsibility and aimed at making a profit." Thus, it is legally established that the implementation of entrepreneurial activity in any form is associated with risk.

In business under "risk" It is customary to understand the probability (threat) of the loss by an enterprise of part of its resources, the loss of income or the appearance of additional expenses as a result of the implementation of certain production and financial activities.

Or risk- this is an activity related to overcoming uncertainty in a situation of inevitable choice, during which it is possible to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the likelihood of achieving the intended result, failure and deviation from the goal.

2. Classificationrisks

Risk classification means the systematization of a set of risks on the basis of some signs and criteria that allow combining risk subsets into more general concepts.

The most important elements underlying the risk classification are:

The time of occurrence

The main factors of occurrence;

the nature of the accounting;

the nature of the consequences;

sphere of occurrence and others.

By the time of occurrence, risks are divided into retrospective, current and prospective risks. Analysis of retrospective risks, their nature and methods of reduction makes it possible to more accurately predict current and future risks.

According to the factors of occurrence, risks are divided into:

· Politicalrisks- these are risks caused by a change in the political situation that affects entrepreneurial activity (closure of borders, a ban on the export of goods, military operations in the country, etc.).

· Economic(commercial)risks- these are risks caused by adverse changes in the economy of the enterprise or in the economy of the country. The most common type of economic risk, in which private risks are concentrated, are changes in market conditions, unbalanced liquidity (inability to fulfill payment obligations in a timely manner), changes in the level of management, etc.

According to the nature of accounting, risks are divided into:

External risks include risks that are not directly related to the activities of the enterprise or its contact audience (social groups, legal and (or) individuals who show potential and (or) real interest in the activities of a particular enterprise). The level of external risks is affected by a large number of factors - political, economic, demographic, social, geographical, etc.

· Internal risks include risks caused by the activities of the enterprise itself and its contact audience. Their level is influenced by the business activity of the enterprise management, the choice of the optimal marketing strategy, policies and tactics, and other factors: production potential, technical equipment, level of specialization, level of labor productivity, safety measures.

According to the nature of the consequences, the risks are divided into:

· Purerisks(sometimes they are also called simple or static) are characterized by the fact that they almost always carry losses for entrepreneurial activity. The causes of pure risks can be natural disasters, wars, accidents, criminal acts, incapacity of the organization, etc.

· Speculativerisks(sometimes they are also called dynamic or commercial) are characterized by the fact that they can carry both losses and additional profit for the entrepreneur in relation to the expected result. Reasons for speculative risks may be changes in market conditions, changes in exchange rates, changes in tax legislation etc.

Classificationrisks in terms of the sphere of origin, which is based on the spheres of activity, is the largest group. In accordance with the areas of entrepreneurial activity, they usually distinguish: production, commercial, financial and insurance risk.

Industrialrisk associated with the failure of the enterprise to fulfill its plans and obligations for the production of products, goods, services, other types of production activities as a result of adverse effects external environment as well as inappropriate use new technology and technologies, basic and working capital, raw materials, working hours. Among the most important causes of production risk It can be noted: a decrease in the estimated production volumes, an increase in material and / or other costs, the payment of increased deductions and taxes, poor delivery discipline, loss or damage to equipment, etc.

Commercialrisk is the risk arising in the process of selling goods and services produced or purchased by the entrepreneur. The reasons for commercial risk are: a decrease in the volume of sales due to changes in market conditions or other circumstances, an increase in the purchase price of goods, loss of goods in the circulation process, an increase in distribution costs, etc.

Financialrisk associated with the possibility of a firm failing to fulfill its financial obligations. The main causes of financial risk are: depreciation of the investment and financial portfolio due to changes in exchange rates, failure to make payments.

Insurancerisk is the risk of stipulated by the conditions insured events, as a result of which the insurer is obliged to pay insurance compensation (sum insured). The risk results in losses caused by inefficient insurance activities both at the stage preceding the conclusion of the insurance contract and at subsequent stages - reinsurance, the formation of insurance reserves, etc. The main causes of insurance risk are: incorrectly determined insurance rates, gambling methodology of the insured.

Forming the classification associated with production activities, the following risks can be distinguished:

· Organizationalrisks- these are the risks associated with the mistakes of the company's management, its employees; system problems internal control, poorly developed work rules, that is, the risks associated with the internal organization of the company's work.

· Marketrisks- these are the risks associated with the instability of the economic situation: the risk of financial losses due to changes in the price of goods, the risk of a decrease in demand for products, translational currency risk, the risk of loss of liquidity, etc.

· Creditrisks- the risk that the counterparty will not fulfill its obligations in full on time. These risks exist both for banks (the risk of non-repayment of the loan), and for enterprises with receivables, and for organizations operating in the market valuable papers

· Legalrisks- these are the risks of losses associated with the fact that the legislation was either not taken into account at all, or changed during the period of the transaction; risk of non-compliance with legislation different countries; the risk of incorrectly drawn up documentation, as a result of which the counterparty is not able to fulfill the terms of the contract, etc.

· Technical and productionrisks- risk of damage to the environment (environmental risk); the risk of accidents, fires, breakdowns; the risk of disruption in the functioning of the facility due to design and installation errors, a number of construction risks, etc.

In addition to the above classifications, risks can be classified according to the consequences:

· Permissiblerisk is the risk of a decision, as a result of which, if not implemented, the company is threatened with loss of profit. Within this zone entrepreneurial activity retains its economic feasibility, i.e. there are losses, but they do not exceed the expected profit.

· Criticalrisk- is the risk at which the company is threatened with loss of revenue; those. the critical risk zone is characterized by the danger of losses that obviously exceed the expected profit and, in extreme cases, can lead to the loss of all funds invested by the enterprise in the project.

· Catastrophicrisk- the risk at which there is an insolvency of the enterprise. Losses can reach a value equal to the property status of the enterprise. This group also includes any risk associated with a direct danger to human life or the occurrence of environmental disasters.

There are a large number of risk classifications depending on the specifics of the company's activities. Investment risks, risks in the real estate market, risks in the securities market, etc. are classified separately.

3 . Basicsmanagementrisks

General concepts of risk management

With the development of civilization, technology, technology, the increasing role of the human factor, the importance of risk management only increases.

Risk management also affects the efficiency of the operation and system, as well as the management of obtaining the target effect, resource management, which allows us to consider risk management as one of the components of the corporate management process.

It is equally important for an enterprise to manage political, financial, technological, personnel risks, ensure fire safety, manage actions in emergency situations, environmental protection, etc.

Risk management must be integrated into the corporate process, must have its own strategy, tactics, and operational implementation. It is noted that it is important not only to carry out risk management, but also to periodically review the activities and means of such management.

High efficiency of resource spending in the implementation of the risk management program can only be ensured within the framework of a systematic approach. This approach in risk management is the most common. Risk management becomes relevant after the discovery of a risk problem. In this case, the results of risk analysis and modeling should be used.

In general, in relation to risk, as a probable failure, the following control actions are possible: warning, decline, compensation damage, absorption.

warning(elimination) is called the exclusion of the source of risk as a result of purposeful actions of the risk subject. There are two approaches to risk prevention: broad and narrow.

The narrow approach is to prevent risk through specific measures carried out at the expense of sums insured and on the initiative of the insurer. A broad approach is implemented outside the scope of insurance.

Decrease(control) of risk is a reduction in the probability of the risk source being realized as a result of the actions of risk subjects. Risk mitigation can be done various methods, including through the use of such methods as diversification, securitization, limiting.

Divesification is the distribution of risk between several, objects, lines of activity, etc.

Securitization is the division of a lending operation into two parts (development of loan conditions and conclusion of an agreement; lending) with the implementation of each of these parts by different banks.

Limiting - setting limits on the size of investments, consignments of purchased goods, loans issued, etc.

Financial engineering refers to the use of financial derivatives to manage risk.

Abroad, it is believed that financial engineering has already taken shape as a separate financial specialty. At the same time, well-known foreign studies of risk management methods leave out of sight such important areas as the use of special forms of transactions (factoring, letters of credit, etc.), the use of an organizational and legal form to reduce the risk of a market activity subject, etc. This made it possible to single out non-stock insurance. In the non-fund form of insurance, insurance costs are included in the price during the initial distribution of the price.

Non-fund insurance is a closed relationship between participants in a commercial transaction or a project to reduce possible damage by reducing the vulnerability of risk objects through specially designed financial instruments, types of transactions, performance of roles, etc.

stock insurance it is more economically feasible if the measures to prevent and reduce the risk are not effective enough and (or) expensive.

Insurance (stock insurance) is called redistributive closed relations of participants in an insurance contract in monetary form regarding compensation for damage.

self-insurance- acceptance of the risk, creation by the subject of risk of a special fund to compensate for the probable loss.

Takeover risk called the adoption of it without additional measures of prevention, reduction or insurance.

It is necessary to make a fundamental difference between self-insurance and refusal of insurance without taking any measures (risk absorption). Often, risk absorption is taken if a large state or municipal enterprise has the ability to include most of the losses in current expenses.

Risk absorption is characteristic of the current socio-economic situation in Russia for the following main reasons:

Lack of financial resources for insurance both for legal entities and individuals;

Relative unreliability of some insurers in conditions of political instability, inflation, lack of profitable and reliable investment instruments.

These circumstances make risk management particularly relevant for entrepreneurs. Risk management should be considered at hierarchical levels: the state and its subsystems (political, social, regional, sectoral), financial and industrial groups and holdings, enterprises, families and citizens.

The risk management process includes goal setting marketing, management.

Risk-goal setting in risk management - the process and result of choosing the best goal in risk management, taking into account available resources and the limitations of the current socio-economic, market situation.

Risk Marketing- selection of risk management methods and tools for certain management purposes, taking into account the actual restrictions on the use of constructive, technological, organizational (health and safety), financial instruments available to the risk subject in a particular situation.

Risk management- maintaining a balance between resources, people, goals in the process of achieving certain risk goals using constructive, technological, organizational (occupational health and safety), financial instruments found in the process of risk marketing.

Risk management, like any management, must include planning, motivation, organization and control. It is important to remember that risk management is both a science and an art. The more original the project, the higher the role of art in risk management. Therefore, the effectiveness of risk management can be improved not only through the use of scientific methods, but also through the creative success of the risk subject.

Essential for risk management is the fact that the subject, and sometimes the object of such management, as a rule, is in a stressful state.

Risk management is possible both in the direction of increasing the possible gain, and in the direction of reducing the possible loss. Techniques for increasing potential gains are not covered in this book, nor are fire safety and safety, security (physical protection of employees and property), labor safety, conflict management.

Systemican approachVmanagementrisks

In connection with the complication of the conditions of production and economic activity, the growing variety of sources and possible consequences risk, they must be considered in a systematic connection with other factors and parameters of the economic and production activities of market entities.

The need for a systematic approach is also associated with an increase in the costs of monitoring and managing risks at all hierarchical levels (state, enterprise, individual). These costs reduce the efficiency of social production, and can also affect the socio-economic situation in the country.

Systems approach in risk management is based on the fact that all phenomena and processes are considered in their systemic connection, the influence of individual elements and decisions on the system as a whole is taken into account. The systems approach can be expressed in that:

1) the goal of ensuring the safety of activities should be a systemic parallel protection of geopolitical, political, social, economic, financial processes, protection of the environment, design and technological structures of the economy from excessive (unacceptable) risks. At the same time, safety, labor protection, conflict management should be used. If it is not possible to achieve a balance of goals in risk management, then a positive effect will not be achieved. If it is not possible to ensure security in at least one factor, then it will not be possible to ensure security in general. For example, if there is no environmental security, then this alone is enough to make the population feel insecure;

2) risks (of different physical nature and having different sources) associated with one object or operation are considered as a single set of factors affecting the efficiency and consumption of resources.

3) the relationship of risk management with the efficiency of systems and resource consumption at several hierarchical levels is considered: the state; territory; financial and industrial group or holding; enterprise or entrepreneur without formation of a legal entity; family and citizen. The point is that a balance should be maintained and the possibility of creating or allocating the reserve resources necessary for risk management at various hierarchical levels should be provided. If priority is given to risk management at only one of the hierarchical levels, then this will reduce the security in the risk management systems in the state as a whole.

4) as some one system risk management measures are considered at: various stages of the product life cycle (development, production, operation, disposal) and product development cycle ( preliminary design, technical project, prototypes).

5) measures for the preparation, conduct, settlement, accounting of the operation (transaction) are formed and considered in such a way as to reasonably reduce the risks of this operation. For example, when preparing an operation, it is necessary to make sure that partners are viable, to highlight provisions in the terms of the transaction that reduce risk (up to the use of non-fund insurance techniques - special types of transactions - letters of credit, factoring, leasing, etc.); during the transaction, special attention should be paid to transport risks; when making calculations, factors that can affect the possibility of refusing to pay and its timeliness are investigated; at the stage of accounting, it is important to correctly reflect the obtained financial results, etc.;

6) a set of measures is being developed to limit the risk at various enterprise cycles (creation, development, maturity, aging; investment, current operations, monetary) in their interconnection to protect against the risks of the enterprise as a whole. For example, when implementing an investment cycle, special attention should be paid to assessing the risk of investing in a particular object or financial instrument; in the cycle of current operations, it is important to ensure the uninterrupted supply of components and raw materials, but not to “inflate” their stocks; in the monetary cycle, it is important to provide the current activities of the enterprise with the necessary financial resources. At the same time, it is important to take into account all the influencing factors (frequency of receipts, purchases, causes of failures, etc.);

7) a set (set) of actions is determined, united by the goal of improving the safety of activities through the use of a limited amount of resources distributed in time and space, consider operations to prevent, reduce, insure and absorb risks of various nature. The point is that each of the existing alternative possibilities for the use of some limited resources for the prevention (exclusion) of risk, its limitation (control) or risk insurance has its own efficiency / cost ratio. Therefore, it is important to determine which of the alternatives will give the greatest effect in a particular situation, and to use these most effective action or a combination of them;

8) a set of interrelated elements is considered as risk management using: legislative measures; economic and financial impact; constructive and technological solutions; organizational measures (safety and labor protection), environmental protection measures. It is important for the state to ensure the balance and effectiveness of various actions to reduce the risks of activities. To do this, certain types of activities that are dangerous and harmful to society (for example, the production and disposal of especially hazardous substances) are legally prohibited, certain activities are licensed, etc. At the same time and in parallel with this, the state, local authorities establish special taxes (for example, a tax on the reproduction of mineral resource base), create and manage the activities of various kinds of sanitary-epidemiological, technical and other inspections;

9) it is rational to ensure a certain balance of resource consumption, the intensity of risk management measures and other areas of production and economic activity. It is especially important to maintain such a balance in relation to risk management and targeted activities while limiting the allocated resources;

10) in management, it is advisable to investigate the risk of goals, determine the ways and means of achieving them (risk marketing), management;

11) in management, the risks of studying and acting can be considered; risks of planning, organization, motivation and control; risks of secrecy and confidentiality; risks of conflict management.

There is always a reasonable balance between the desire for security and the resources necessary to ensure it. Seeking absolute security at the cost of overspending resources is just as unwise as neglecting danger without analyzing it. For any practical situation there is a rational or optimal (best) ratio between the level of danger and the resources spent on ensuring safety based on objective risks, available resources and subjective assessments.

When considering risk management in agricultural enterprises, it is important to remember that risk management is achieved at the cost of resources (human, financial, time, etc.) that are reserved and diverted from the production sector. This undoubtedly reduces the efficiency of production, since the costs of control fall on production costs, limit the competitiveness of domestic food products in the domestic market. A small and ever-dwindling number of manufacturing enterprises reduces the number of taxpayers to the budget. This, in turn, forces an increase in the tax burden on taxpayers, which can lead them to insolvency. However, today in the Russian Federation, work continues in this direction - the simplified taxation regime for agricultural enterprises introduced since 2002 is planned to be further simplified, namely, to replace the existing taxes paid by agricultural producers to the budget with a single one. Work in numerous regulatory bodies is distracting able-bodied population from the production sector, and their maintenance requires the expenditure of budgetary funds. At the same time, exorbitant spending on control can generate political and financial risks. At the same time, as practice has shown, during the transitional period of development it is especially important that the risks of activity in the market are not too great, and market activity is not uncontrolled.

12) risk management should have its own strategy, tactics and components;

13) risk management should be considered both as a science and as an art. At all stages of system design, the influence of the human factor, creativity, the need to work under severe time constraints, and the impact of stress should be taken into account.

4. AnalysisexternalAndinternalfactorsrisk,monitoringrisk

Monitoring -- continuous monitoring of the parameters of the object in order to control their compliance.

External risk factors include factors of the macro environment, the infrastructure of the region and the micro environment of the organization.

TO factors macro environment include international, political, economic, socio-demographic, legal, environmental, scientific and technical, cultural.

TO factors infrastructure region (mesospheres) -- the following: market infrastructure, environmental monitoring, education and science, health care, culture, trade, public catering, transport and communications, construction, housing and communal services, consumer services, industry. Each of these factors is characterized by a number of indicators that should be managed (monitoring, analysis, optimization, etc.).

Thus, the branch of education and science can be characterized by such specific indicators as:

* capital-labor ratio of workers in this area (teachers, university professors, scientists);

* the competitiveness of goods in this area in the foreign and domestic markets (we are talking about the competitiveness of specialists, graduates of educational institutions, managers, elements of the main production assets, technologies, scientific products, etc.);

* progressiveness of scientific equipment and technologies, their age;

* social security of workers in education and science;

* the average salary of workers in this area;

* turnover of workers and their emigration and other indicators.

The connection between the absolute and relative indicators of efficiency, competitiveness and sustainability of the functioning of each area with the level of risk is obvious. The better these indicators are in terms of the factors of the macrosphere, the infrastructure of the region (city) and the microenvironment of the organization (object), the lower the level of risk. To improve the quality of risk management, it is recommended to establish quantitative correlation (pair) dependencies between key indicators spheres (factors) of the external environment of the object and the level of risk.

TO factors microspheres organizations include the following: suppliers (input systems) and their competitors; consumers (system output) and their competitors; contact audiences (means mass media, assistance groups, public organizations, regulatory authorities, etc.); marketing intermediaries at the input and output of the system; local authorities. danger risk takeover threat

TO internal factors risk include inconsistencies, low reliability, disproportion, weakness of individual components of the organization's management system, its production and organizational structure, elements of functional types of marketing and management. In other words, internal risk factors include all the weaknesses and "diseases" of the organization as a black box, i.e. its substance: all types of resources in statics and dynamics, management systems.

In accordance with the systematic approach (in our interpretation, see section 4.3), it is recommended to first analyze external risk factors and only then internal ones. Why is this kind of risk analysis appropriate? Among external factors risks may be insurmountable now and in the future, weaknesses and "diseases" that make efforts to reduce internal risks pointless. You can spend huge amounts of money on reducing internal risks and get zero results if external risk factors are insurmountable. Before investing in a project, development of an object, study the external environment of this object. The presence of insurmountable external risk factors makes it pointless to invest in the development of this facility. Unfortunately, in practice, following the established concept that the system is a set of interrelated elements, the analysis of the investment situation begins with the internal, and not the external environment. Having spent huge amounts of money on the development of the system itself, at the second stage - the stage of analyzing environmental factors - they face insurmountable obstacles (unsustainable market mechanisms, low-quality infrastructure, etc.), making the project unpromising, and the costs of developing the internal structure are already you won't return.

Main methods analysis factors risk are well-known methods of comparison, index, balance, elimination, graphical, functional-value, factor analysis, system analysis, etc. The main goal of this analysis is to identify bottlenecks, weaknesses, "diseases", disproportions of the substance, structure, production and management processes in the system that increase the risk of investing in its operation or development.

5. GradeAndoptimizationrisk

A quantitative assessment of the level of risk can be carried out with varying degrees of accuracy of calculations. Let us present the most simplified method of risk assessment.

At the first stage, it is recommended to try to establish the relationship between external (internal) factors and the level of risk. The number of dependencies is determined by the completeness and quality information support risk management systems. For these purposes, correlation fields should be built (Fig. 5.3, b, c) and statistical dependencies should be established.

On fig. 5.3 shows curvilinear (X() and rectilinear (X3) directly proportional dependencies of factors on the function (risk) and the corresponding inversely proportional dependencies (X2 and X4).

In the first case (X, and X,) with the increase (growth, increase) of the factor, the risk of investing or implementing a project increases. For example, with an increase in the degree of depreciation of the fixed production assets (permanent capital) of an organization, the average age of technology, staff turnover, the average age of employees (teachers, scientists, specialists) and other similar factors, the risk of investing increases.

In the second case, with a decrease (decrease) in the factor, the risk of investments increases (X2 and X4). For example, with a drop in the competitiveness of objects (specialists, managers, technology, equipment, products, organizations, etc.), the scientific level of managerial decisions, the average salary of employees, capital-labor ratio, social security of employees and other factors of a similar nature, the risk of investment is growing.

To use this risk management tool, you must:

1) make a selection of external and internal risk factors covering the macro environment, the infrastructure of the region and the micro environment of the organization;

2) establish monitoring of these factors;

3) to rank the factors in order to select the most important of them (it is impossible to manage or monitor all factors);

4) to establish the form of connection between the factors and the level of risk;

5) try to establish quantitative relationships (regression equations) between the most important factors risk and level of risk;

6) determine the elasticity between the most important risk factors and the level of investment risk.

In addition to performing these studies, it is necessary to establish quantitative relationships between the final indicators of the project (profit, profitability, liquidity, etc.) and the level of risk. For example, the relationship between the level of risk and profit (profitability) from investing is described by the curve of risk and liquidity of securities - the curve of risk and stability of the functioning of the organization - a function, etc.

When assessing risks, one should calculate the probability of achieving the planned profit value, which is described by the Gauss law (Fig. 5.4).

In order for management decisions to innovative projects were in the zone + in Fig. 5.4, ​​it is necessary to investigate the impact of external and internal risk factors on profit, reduce the impact of negative (increasing risk) factors on profit and optimize the level of risk.

Stepwise risk optimization is:

1) selection and ranking of factors of the external and internal environment of the object and the risk subject using factor analysis methods (mathematical-statistical and expert);

2) establishment of dependencies between the selected risk factors and the object of risk (income, profit, etc.)

3) stochastic risk optimization

The probability (frequency) of making a profit or loss can be determined by the formula:

where is the probability of making a profit or loss in the i-th case; - the number of i-th cases of profit or loss; is the total number of cases in the general sample.

The average expected value of profit (loss) is determined by the formula:

where i=1, 2,…,n - case (event) number; - the actual value i-uj of the case.

The root-mean-square deviation (S) of the actual risk data from the calculated ones is determined by the formula:

where is the variance, n is the number of observation cases, p is the number of control parameters (one in this example).

The larger S, the higher the risk of the predicted event, the greater the spread, the tolerance field (see Fig. 5.4), the “rougher” the risk optimization model. It is necessary to smooth, avoid, reduce risk factors in order to narrow the "S" field, the risk field. It is good when "S" is less than ±15%.

More precise risk optimization methods are given, for example, in the book /23/.

6. Methodsdecreaserisk

Financial risks are resolved with the help of various means and ways. The means of resolving financial risks are their avoidance, retention, transfer, reduction of degree. Risk avoidance refers to the simple avoidance of risk-related activities. However, avoiding risk for an entrepreneur often means giving up profit. Risk retention implies leaving the risk to the investor, i.e. on his responsibility. The transfer of risk means that the investor transfers the responsibility for the financial risk to someone else, such as an insurance company. In this case, the transfer of risk occurred through financial risk insurance. Reducing the degree of risk - reducing the likelihood and amount of losses. When choosing a specific means of resolving financial risk, the investor should proceed from the following principles:

1) you can not risk more than your own capital can afford;

2) one must think about the consequences of the risk;

3) you can not risk a lot for the sake of a little. The implementation of the first principle means that before investing capital, the investor must:

Determine the maximum possible amount of loss for this risk;

Compare it with the amount of invested capital:

Compare it with all your own financial resources and determine whether the loss of this capital will lead to the bankruptcy of the investor.

The amount of loss from capital investment can be equal to the amount of this capital, be less or more than it. The amount of loss in direct investment, as a rule, is equal to the amount of venture capital. However, taking into account the decrease in the purchasing power of money, especially in conditions of inflation, the volume of losses may be greater than the amount of money invested. In this case, the amount of possible loss should be determined taking into account the inflation index.

With portfolio investment, i.e. when buying securities that can be sold on the secondary market, the amount of loss is usually less than the amount of capital expended. The ratio of the maximum possible amount of loss and the amount of the investor's own financial resources represents the degree of risk leading to bankruptcy. It is measured using a risk factor:

where Kp - risk factor;

Y - the maximum possible amount of loss, rub.;

C - the volume of own financial resources, taking into account precisely known receipts of funds, rub.

There are four ways to reduce risk:

1. diversification

2. risk pooling or insurance

3. risk distribution

4. search for information

Diversification is a method that aims to reduce risk by spreading it among several risky commodities in such a way that an increase in risk from buying (or selling) one means a decrease in risk from buying (or selling) another.

Diversification cannot completely eliminate risk, but it can help reduce it significantly.

An associationrisk is a method aimed at reducing risk by turning incidental losses into relatively small fixed costs. It is the basis of insurance.

Sickness, natural disasters, theft and similar unforeseen circumstances are associated with significant costs. Insurance helps mitigate the consequences of these circumstances.

Insurance companies organize the case in such a way that the amount of payments and the costs of organizing do not exceed the amount of insurance premiums.

The main condition for the effectiveness of risk pooling in insurance is that the risks of the insured persons are independent of each other.

Distributionrisk- this is a method in which the risk of probable damage is divided among the participants in such a way that the possible losses of each are relatively small.

7. Control risks And grade efficiency management risks

Main goals Groups V areas management risks is minimization possible negative impact on business changes external environment And internal processes.

Policy management risks .

Policy management risks called upon protect interests shareholders, interested parties And societies V in general through system effective management risks. Control risks is necessary component process creation joint-stock cost And achievements strategic goals Groups.

Process management risks .

IN 2008-2009 gg. jointly With consultant V areas management risks (March) were held Events By evaluation efficiency current systems management risks developed recommendations By her improvement, prepared domestic documentation, regulating process management risks V group. Beginning With 2010 of the year, process management risks implemented on one's own.

Control risks is continuous, inalienable And transparent process, affecting all employees Groups on various stages:

? detection And constant monitoring risks;

? grade potential impact risks on business Groups;

? distribution responsibility By owners risks;

? development events By management risks;

? control critical risks.

The main components of the effectiveness of risk management methods should be costs, income, risk ratio and time factor. These components can be combined into a formula:

where is expected economic effect implementation of risk management measures, thousand rubles; T is the period of action for which the risk was optimized, years; - income received from the implementation of the event in the year t, thousand rubles; - costs (investments) in the event in year t; dt - discount factor in year t; - discount rate, fractions of a unit (for example, 0, 1); - risk factor for investing in an event:

where S - standard deviation,%; - costs for the analysis of risk factors, its optimization and management in the year t, thousand rubles.

In the above way, the effect of each risk management measure is calculated. Together, these activities with all other components (performers, costs, deadlines, results, etc.) should be included in the risk optimization program in the organization. In an unstable economic and political environment, the formation and implementation of such a program is very relevant.

In general, to solve all the toughest questions risk management in organizations, it is recommended to create departments (bureaus, groups) of risk management.

Conclusion

Risk management is one of the components of the corporate production process, so it must be integrated into this process, it must have its own strategy, tactics, and operational implementation. At the same time, it is important not only to carry out risk management, but also to periodically review the measures and means of such management. Considering that the agro-industrial complex includes not only agriculture, forestry, and, more recently, the fishing industry, but also enterprises of the processing industry and the production of means of production, we can say that the former are characterized by non-standard risk problems and, therefore, a special approach to managing them, and for the latter, common methods of risk management are applicable.

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Sources of financial risks can be both inside (conflicts, disloyalty or dishonesty of individual employees) and outside the object of financial risk (actions of partners or competitors, etc.). Therefore, management systems for both internal and external financial risk can be distinguished. To manage both external and internal financial risk, a special system is used, which is a subsystem of the system financial management. The financial risk management subsystem should include:

sources and sensors of information;

information collection subsystem;

information processing subsystem;

information display subsystem;

decision-making subsystem;

executive elements;

control subsystem.

Financial risk management operations must be performed in an automatic or automated mode with the involvement of computer technology and automation.

The execution of security commands must have top priority.

Financial risk management is possible using program or situational management methodologies. Program control can be implemented automatically in accordance with a predetermined algorithm. For example, at present, trading on the MICEX is automatically terminated if the ruble exchange rate deviates from the initial value by a value exceeding a certain tolerance (for example, 5%). Such control is possible only for structured predefined control situations.

situational management is used when a flexible approach is needed, and the situations are rather complex, "blurred" and therefore require the participation of the manager in making a specific decision. The objective features of any risk is the random nature of the moment of occurrence and the amount of possible damage. Often the damage in an emergency situation depends on the speed of response to the impact of factors that cause financial damage. The slower and sluggish the reaction, the greater the damage.

Therefore, the most important requirements for the financial risk management system are the requirements:

1) the adequacy of the compensatory financial impact in terms of volume and intensity;

2) real-time control.

Risk management is a set of processes within the organization aimed at limiting the levels of risks taken by the organization in accordance with the interests of the organization's owners - risk appetite.

The main problem in risk management is the conflict of interest between the owners of the organization and its management and employees.

Owners (shareholders) of the organization actually cover own funds possible losses to the organization, therefore, they are not interested in increasing the potential level of such losses. Their interests can be formulated as an increase in the profitability of operations with a significant limitation on risk.

The management and employees of the organization do not cover the losses of the organization with their own funds, except in situations where mercenary or negligent actions of employees that led to losses are proven, which is extremely rare. Growth in the income of employees of the organization, as a rule, is associated with an increase in the profitability of operations (bonuses, bonuses, etc.), and with an increase in the volume and riskiness of operations (the volume and level of risk determine the potential profitability and opportunities for obtaining indirect, mercenary income - price manipulation , kickbacks, etc.). Thus, the interests of the employees of the organization can be formulated as an increase in profitability, volumes and risk levels of operations - i.e. intensity, aggressiveness of the organization.

Risk management implies in particular the elimination of this gap of interest.

Risk management can be carried out from various positions:

Direct directive risk management is an approach to risk management in which, during a single operation, an assessment of the expected risks is brought to the top management of the organization, which makes the final decision on the appropriateness of the operation. This approach is effective for a small number of operations, i.e. either in a small organization, or when conducting large operations (for example, commercial lending in a bank) in medium and large organizations.

Limiting risks by limiting transactions - i.e. limiting the quantitative characteristics of certain groups of operations, distinguished either by their type or by persons, responsible for operations;

A limit is a quantitative restriction imposed on some characteristics of a company's operations. The limit is necessary in cases where, for one reason or another, the necessary characteristics of the riskiness of operations are not taken into account when conducting operations.

Limiting risks through risk-based performance evaluation mechanisms

Most modern financial markets allows you to increase the average profitability of operations by increasing the risks taken. For example, in the stock market, it is possible to increase profitability with a corresponding increase in risk due to the conclusion of futures transactions, the formation of leverage, etc. Such a situation will naturally push the employees of the organization to increase the profitability of their operations, by increasing the risks, if the organization ignores the accepted risks when evaluating their activities. Therefore, in order to encourage employees to be cautious about risks, risks should be taken into account when evaluating their performance.

Muravieva N.N. Evaluation of the effectiveness of financial risk management in commercial organizations/ N.N. Muravyova, N.N. Udalova // Economics and business: theory and practice. - 2015. - No. 4. - S. 15-19.

EVALUATION OF THE EFFICIENCY OF FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN COMMERCIAL ORGANIZATIONS

N.N. Muravyova, Ph.D. economy . sciences, up to cent

N.N. Udalova, Senior Lecturer

Volga Humanitarian Institute (branch) FGAOU VPO " VolSU »

(Russia, Volzhsky)

Annotation. Effective financial risk management is essential for With lovy stable and profitable activities of the organization.In this article, in accordance with the selected criteria, an assessment was made of the effectiveness of financial risk management at a large enterprise in the Volgograd region, OJSC Voltyre-Prom. Made in s water on the compliance of the obtained indicators withestimated performance criteria.

Keywords: financial risks,risk of loss of solvency, management f And financial risks,efficiency mark

Financial risk management is an important component financial management system of the organization, which serves as an effective tool for improving financial stability, decrease n e foreseen costs, optimization of A spending, as well as preventing loss and bankruptcy.From the point of view of I.A. Blanca, Mr.The main goal of financial risk management is to ensure the financial security of the enterprise in the process of its development and to prevent a possible decrease in its market value. [ 1 ] .

Financial Management Efficiency s Mi risks in a commercial organization must be assessed from two main points about positions:

1) H Alicia in the financial management system n enterprises of a particular organization A management structure, responsible e responsible for risk management, in accordance T functions and resp.responsibility for their implementation.

2) H and on the basis of indicators - performance criteria, the achievement of which (so T compliance with which) testifies to the provision of a sufficient degree of financial O howling enterprise security and, accordingly T vein, proper organization of itsrisk management.

The set of criteria for the effectiveness of financial risk management in co m mercantile organizations was proposed in an earlier study [ 2]. S l e It should be noted that the choice of a certaincriteria depends on the goals facingrisk managementspecific organization and tsii. So, to assess the effectiveness and degree of safety, the main production d organization’s executive activities b the indicator- dot break-even (efficiency criterion - the maximum distance from this point of the actual e mov sales); to assess the risks associated with investing capital - a coefficient in A radiation (efficiency criterion - min And indicator misization); for risk assessment e solvency of the enterprise - scoop P ness financial ratios(Crete e rhyme of efficiency - conformity actual values indicators to their regulatory limitsor their positive and mika).

To substantiate the effectiveness of V management of financial risks in general, can be used generalizing criteria: quantitative (the effectiveness of the b enterprise, the optimal ratio e risk and return reduction, total savings h quality) and qualitative (expediency and rationality, reliability and functionality O nal adaptability, compliance with n darts and norms) [ 3 ].

In addition, effective financial risk management for enterprisesshould be characterized by the following trends: an increase in the level of financial O risk is accompanied by an increase in income d news (profits); decrease in profitabilitydue to a decrease in the level of finance about the risk.

Consider the correspondence of the real with And financial risk management situations A mi on a major industrial enterprise Volgograd region JSC "Voltyre-Prom" with selected main components V for effective management of them (organizational and financial aspects).

An analysis of the organizational structure of the management of this enterprise, as well as the functions assigned to financial services, led to the conclusion that financial risk management is d acceptance is not singled out as a separate area of ​​management, however, to him given some attention, including n certification and accounting various kinds risk, in particular, environmental risk factors; risks inherent in individual financial transactions of the enterprise, etc.

And financial risks at the enterprise And was carried out from the pointrhenium matching fa to tic indicators of their normative value A values ​​considered as crit e Efficiency Reeves.As already noted e but, in The choice of criteria may differ depending on the goals set. and os o organization. In this case, the financial risks were With viewed as risks arising from O financial management comcommercial organization, i.e. in a broad sense. P O this, in order to justify the effectiveness of financial risk management at an A lysed enterprise were used A general indicators, namely:

– likelihood of finance O th risk of the highest level - the risk of loss of solvency of the enterprise;

– performance (dyn and mika arrived);

– risk/return ratio pr O production and financial activities of the enterprise;

– overall profitability, determined by the ratio of the price level of purchased resources with market prices of realized n products.

To assess the probability of occurrence of a financial risk of the highest level were calculated special financial O efficiencies (liquidity, payment method b efficiency, maneuverability of functioning capital, etc.), actual indicators to about which were compared with their standard values (criteria effective O sti). Calculation of financial ratios used to assess the risk of loss of solvency of the analyzed pre d acceptances for the period from 2012 to 2014, pre e is listed in Table 1.

When comparing the presented in that b face 1 of the actual data of indicators with their criterion values, was made conclusion that the probability of the risk of loss of A solvency and financial solvency b enterprise is very high, that St. And reflects inefficiency in general existing system financial management n owl risks in the organization.

Table 1 . Calculation of financial ratios used to assess the risk of loss of solvency of JSC "Voltyre-Prom" for 2012— 2014 *

*calculated according to [ 4 ]

Evaluation according to the criterion effective about sti is an analysis of the dynamics of profit, expected by the enterprise based on the results of its production T military and economic activities for the e divided period.The analysis carried out in s revealed that financial results analysis And of the enterprise does not correspond to With established criterion(growth pr and were) , because in OJSC Voltyre-Prom based on the results of 2013-2014. was received negative A value of profit before tax about zheniya and net profit(Fig. 1).

The next criterion is the O solution of risk and profitability of business activities and yatiya, which is determined on the basis of e f effect of financial leverage. This show a tel demonstrates how much O cents profitability increases with divine capital by attracting borrowed funds into the turnover of the enterprise. AND With input data and calculation of the effect of financial s chaga resulting from attraction borrowed funds of OJSC"Voltyre-Prom" in 2012-2014 years are presented in the table 2 .

table 2 . Initial data and calculation of the effect of financial leverage for OJSC Voltyre-Prom in 2012-2014.*

*calculated according to [ 4 ]

According to the criteria for determining the financial risk by the level of e cha leverage, in 2012 there is an average level of risk, in 2013 - a high level of risk. At the end of 2014, the leverage value of finance O the left lever takes a negative value A value in connection with the accounting on the balance of negative A valuation indicator of equity, the level of risk is high. According to crit e riyam for determining financial risk by the value of the differential of financial leverage, in 2012 there is a low level O risk level (> 5%). In 2013-2014 the value of the differential takes on a negative value in connection with obtaining a negative b financial result and, accordingly T venno, negative value of economical e return on assets, which is subdivided at carries a very high financial risk.

Respectively, in terms of And teriya "Ratio of risk and return proi h water and financial activities d acceptance” financial risk management A we in the organization should also And know ineffective, tk. high ri With associated with a significant proportion of And borrowed sources of financing O vanishing is not accompanied by an increase in re n timesheet of the enterprise, n A against, was received negative fin n total result (loss).

Evaluation of the effectiveness of management f And financial risks according to the criterion "general profitability" is carried out through T vom comparative analysis of the coefficients "self e cost/assets" and "cost/revenue" in dynamics by years a analyzed period (Table 3).

Table 3 . Dynamics of indicators "cost / assets" and "cost And bridge / revenue" for 2012— 2014 *

*calculated according to [ 4 ]

There is a decrease overall economy the mission of the enterprise for an A lizable period by the coefficient "from e cost / revenue”, which is negative A reaps the growth of the cost share in the proceeds from re A product lysis. Decrease for n e coefficient "cost price / act And you" is due to the inefficiency of using O of acquired resources for production h management, and a significant increase in the act And wow enterprise.

Thus, on the basis of the results obtained, the following conclusions were drawn: believing T risk of loss of solvency and financial n the solvency of the enterprise is great, the main goal (increase in profit up to n A taxation, capital increase And enterprise status) is not achieved, high ur O vein of risk associated with significant O lei attracted borrowed sources f And nancy is not accompanied by a raise e profitability of pre d acceptance; there is a deterioration in the "general profitability" of production n but-economic activities in connection with With volume of cost shares (including material b costs) in proceeds from the sale of O duction. These results allow T to argue that financial risk management in the organization should be recognized as ineffective.

Financial instability, decline in business activity, lack of property n other sources of financing caused V necessitate the search for new methods O measures of financial risk management, to O which could increase the efficiency V the performance of the enterprise.

Bibliographic list

1. Blank I.A. Financial risk management: tutorial. - M.: Nika-Center, 2005. 270 With .

2. Muravieva N.N., Blinova T.K. Substantiation of criteria for the effectiveness of management f And financial risks in commercial organizations // Economics and business: theory and practice To teak. 2015. No. 1. pp. 65–69.

3. Abasova Kh.A. Methodology integrated assessment financial risk management in org and nizations of oilfield services // Upr control of economic systems. 2014. No. 10. [Electronic resource] URL: http://www.uecs.ru/finansi-i-credit/item/3076-2014-10-13-12-26-27

4. Annual accountingfinancial statements of JSC Voltyre-Prom for 2013-2014 / Center ra With disclosure of corporate information [ Electronic resource] URL: http://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/files.aspx?id=9440&type=3 (date of access: 06/21/2015)

5. Savchenko N.L. The main criteria for financial risk in determining the level of finance n leverage in the framework of express analysis: Russian practice // Economic analysis: theory and practice. 2014. No. 44. pp.58–65.

EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF FINANCIAL RISK

MA-N AGEMENT IN COMMERCIAL ORGANIZATIONS

NN Muraveva , candidate of economic sciences, associate professor

NN Udalova , senior lecturer

Volzhsky humanitarian institute (branch) of the Volgograd state un i versity

(Russia, Volzhskiy)

abstract. Effective management of financial risks is a prerequisite for stable and profitable a with tivities of the organization. In this article, in accordance with the selected criteria assessed the e f effectiveness of financial risk management at a large e n terprise of the Volgograd region Voltyre-Prom. Were made the conclusions on the conformity of the resulting indicators to the established criteria of efficiency.

Tags : financial risks, the risk of losing solvency, financial risk management, evaluation of the effectiveness.

Everyone knows that risks are an integral part of any business. In one area they are more, in another they are less. When accepting any management decision manager must take into account possible risks. Risk management allows the threshold of this factor to be lowered and provides the basis for the manager to implement justified solutions to achieve the assigned tasks. At the moment, the leaders of most enterprises in our country are trying to minimize risks in a practical, systematic way, gradually organizing departments and positions in the company that are responsible for such issues and implement risk management systems. Successful companies pay a lot of attention to risk management systems. But all the same, in many domestic organizations the most responsible decisions are made on the basis of the intuition of the leader. In European countries, risk management standards have been developed, unfortunately, in our country this is still very far away and this makes the process of risk reduction difficult.

In order for the company to develop effectively and successfully carry out its activities in the market, the company's personnel must promptly resolve emerging issues and problems, and also take into account the nature of the influence of these factors on the production and technological process. But in order to hold positions, the organization must have a certain fixed amount of financial resources covering the possible costs of reducing risks and eliminating the consequences of those incidents that could not be prevented. Particular attention here should be focused on such situations that can create a serious threat to the business itself.

First of all, the risks are associated with a deviation from the planned indicators, but not every deviation can be considered a negative risk event, but only one that has already exceeded the possible limit level. But experts note that if the enterprise has a well-functioning planning and budgeting system that controls costs and expenditures, the reason for the deviation is uncertain factors.

Do not forget that reporting is an integral part of the risk management process. Distinguish between external and internal reporting. Unlike financial reporting, it combines the past, present and future in itself. The possibility of losing something is characteristic of any kind of activity. There are quite a few types of risks that an enterprise faces in its work, but special attention should be paid to the so-called financial risks. These are the risks associated with the loss of financial resources in the conduct of any activity by the company. More specifically, from the point of view of economic theory, the financial risks of an enterprise show the likelihood that the real return on investment will differ from the expected one. The presence of such risks prompts the introduction of systems to manage them. Financial risk management characterizes the degree of stability of this enterprise in the market, its ability to deal with negative consequences market. Most importantly, the results of financial risks significantly affect the finances and efficiency of the company. All this can lead the company not only to losses, but also to ruin. Therefore, financial risk management involves identifying exactly those risks that pose the greatest threat to the organization. Understanding the main potential dangers makes it possible to direct funds to those areas characterized by a rational ratio of risk and return. This has a positive effect on the organization, allowing efficient allocation of resources.

Exists difficult process analysis of financial risks, which consists of several stages. First, the types of risks should be identified and classified. Secondly, to designate for yourself the criteria for assessing the characteristics of each of the species. Thirdly, to develop methods and ways to control and eliminate hazards. In general, inclusion operating system analysis of financial risks in the process of enterprise management is a complex and multifaceted issue, but with its effective solution, the financial stability of the enterprise is ensured, its successful development and growth. If we talk only about the financial risks of the enterprise, then key indicator, used in the analysis and forecasting of risks, is the product of the possibility of the occurrence of a risk by the sum of the losses expected from its consequences. Among general view financial risks distinguish between credit, currency and speculative risks. An interesting feature financial risks is mirror symmetry, that is, when a risk occurs on one side, there are chances for the other. The ways to reduce risks include the distribution of responsibility and insurance of situations against loss of funds.

The problem of risk management exists in any sector of the economy - from agriculture and industry to trade and finance, which explains its continued relevance. And since all sectors of the economy are linked into a single mechanism thanks to the financial sector, the greatest attention should be paid to financial risks. The main sources of threat to the well-being of the financial activity of the enterprise are the types of risks presented in table 1.

Table 1. Types of financial risks

Type of risk

Definition of risk

Credit Risk

The possibility of a negative change in the value of assets as a result of the inability of counterparties to fulfill their obligations, in particular for the payment of interest and principal of the loan (credit risk also includes the risk of default by the borrower)

Operational Risk

The possibility of unforeseen losses due to technical errors during operations, intentional and unintentional actions of personnel, emergencies, equipment failures, etc. (operational risks often include losses due to errors in the model or methodology used for assessing and managing risks)

Liquidity Risk The possibility of losses caused by the inability to buy or sell an asset in the required quantity in a sufficiently short period of time due to deteriorating market conditions. 2. The possibility of a shortage of cash or other highly liquid assets to meet obligations to counterparties

Market risk

The possibility of a negative change in the value of assets as a result of fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates, stock prices, bonds and goods (varieties of market risk are, in particular, interest rate and currency risks)

Figure 1 Risk management is carried out in the following sequence

Consider this process in stages, shown in Figure 1. Stage one. Financial risk assessment. At this stage, it is necessary to identify the inherent this enterprise financial risks and develop methods for their quantification. The use of financial risk assessment methods makes it possible to evaluate possible losses in case of market fluctuations with a single number. They also allow you to estimate the amount of capital that needs to be set aside to cover these losses. Currently, many methods for assessing financial risks have been developed. Their calculation is quite complicated and requires special training. As part of this study, we want to consider with the most commonly used methods in practice, without going into complex mathematical calculations (see table 2).

Table 2. Methods for assessing financial risks

One of the most popular risk assessment methods is VaR (risk measure). In simple terms, the calculation of the value of VaR is carried out in order to be able to make a statement like: "We are X% sure (with a probability of X%) that our losses will not exceed Y dollars over the next -days." In this sentence, the unknown value Y is VaR. It is a function of two parameters: time horizon and X - confidence level. Consider the types of analysis used in practice. Sensitivity analysis is to determine the values ​​of key parameters that may cast doubt on the success of the business. It is very important to determine what changes in these parameters could increase the expected profitability: for example, a 25% increase in the price of raw materials, or a 20% decrease in the sale price or output. If the business is too sensitive to some changes in parameters, the head of the enterprise should regularly monitor their value.

Scenario analysis is a risk analysis technique that, along with a basic set of inputs, considers a number of other inputs that may come into play during implementation. Based on the results obtained, two scenarios are compiled: a pessimistic scenario - a "bad" set of circumstances, an optimistic scenario - a "good" set of circumstances, as well as a conclusion about the possibility of a pessimistic scenario and the losses associated with it.

Simulation modeling (Monte Carlo method) is a procedure by which a mathematical model for determining any financial indicator subjected to a series of simulation runs by a computer. The simulation process includes a set of actions: sequential scenarios are created using initial data that is uncertain; modeling is carried out in such a way that a random choice of values ​​does not violate the actual ranges of parameter changes; simulation results are collected and analyzed statistically in order to assess the measure of risk.

Consider the most common ways to reduce financial risk.

Insurance is a form of preliminary reservation of resources intended to compensate for damage from the expected manifestation of various risks. Economic entity insurance consists in the creation of a reserve (insurance) fund, deductions to which for an individual insured are set in an amount significantly less than the amount of the expected loss and, as a result, the amount of insurance compensation. Thus, there is a transfer of most of the risk from the insured to the insurer.

To reduce the consequences of the manifestation of risk, the reservation of financial resources is used in case of adverse changes in the activities of the enterprise. The creation of a contingency reserve is one of the ways to manage risks, providing for the establishment of a ratio between potential risks affecting the value of assets and the amount of funds needed to eliminate the consequences of the manifestation of risks.

Limiting risks by limiting transactions - limiting the quantitative characteristics of individual groups of transactions, identified by their type or by persons responsible for transactions. To do this, it is necessary to define a limit scheme and set limits within it. The limit scheme assigns a certain type of limit to each type of risk. Setting limits, that is, limiting amounts, is one of the techniques for reducing the degree of risk. When using credit ratings, the process of setting limits is greatly simplified. It is enough to set the scale of correspondence between the values ​​of ratings and the amounts of limits. Rank-based limit restricts maximum size acceptable risk in transactions with this counterparty

Hedging is the minimization of price risk. The purpose of hedging is to fix a certain price level. Depending on the form of organization of trade, all hedging instruments can be divided into exchange and over-the-counter.

Diversification is a way of reducing overall risk exposure by allocating funds among different assets whose price or returns are weakly correlated with each other. The essence of diversification is to reduce the maximum possible losses per event, but at the same time, the number of risk types that need to be controlled increases.

In conclusion, I would like to say that in today's market conditions it is not enough to listen to your own intuition: it can let you down. For effective management of financial risks and risks in general, it is necessary to rely on scientific developments, skillfully combine known methods and apply them in daily work. The main thing is that your financial risk management system should be simple, transparent, practical and in line with strategic goals enterprises