English risk, fr. risk from it. risico – goes back to the Greek. rixikon - cliff: original. “take risks” – maneuver between rocks) – 1) the likelihood of events with negative consequences; 2) the danger of unforeseen losses, damages, shortfall in income, profit compared to the planned option. There are three groups of risks: political (determined by the influence on economic processes of political changes, military conflicts, the introduction of restrictions, embargoes, nationalization of property, etc.); environmental (connected with the influence of anthropogenic changes in existing natural objects and factors); economic (caused by the influence of economic decisions made or actions taken on economic processes). K R. economic. include: Banking R. - the danger of non-receipt of profit arising from the specifics of operations carried out by credit institutions; R. lending - the probability of non-repayment of received. borrower of loans and non-payment of interest for the loan taken; Currency currency – danger of currency losses, communications. with changes in exchange rates; R. insurance – danger of k.-l. events in case of occurrence of which insurance is carried out; R. interest – associated with changes in interest rates; R. inflationary - caused by an increase in production costs due to inflation. process; R. price - caused by changes in the price of a debt obligation due to a rise or fall in the level of interest rates. In the industry, risks are distinguished: production (connected with the production of products, services, a possible decrease in the expected volumes of production, an unforeseen increase in costs, etc.); commercial (arising in the process of selling products and services when prices change, sales volume decreases, distribution costs increase, etc.); financial R. (appearing in the process of relationships between the enterprise and banks and other financial institutions as a result of an unforeseen increase in interest rates for loans, changes in the tax system, etc.). R. are measured by frequency, the probability of occurrence of a particular level of losses. In terms of the level of losses, losses may be acceptable (threat of loss of profit or part of profit); critical (threat of loss of revenue, failure to cover incurred costs); catastrophic (threat of loss of property, bankruptcy).

4) - the danger of unexpected losses of expected profit, income or property, Money due to random changes in economic conditions, unfavorable circumstances, including force majeure, or a general drop in prices on the market; the possibility of obtaining an unpredictable result depending on the adopted business decision or action. It is measured by frequency, the probability of occurrence of a particular level of losses. The most dangerous risks are those with a tangible probability of losses exceeding the expected profit. It is customary to distinguish the following types of risk: banking risk - the risk to which commercial banks are exposed; currency risk - the risk associated with unforeseen changes in the exchange rate of foreign currencies; credit risk - the risk associated with the danger of non-repayment, incomplete repayment or untimely repayment of loans; interest rate risk - the risk associated with unforeseen changes in interest rates; investment risk - the probability of incurring losses or not making a profit as a result of investing capital in stock values ​​or placing resources; political risk - risk caused by the influence of political changes and military conflicts on economic processes; risk of infection - the risk that the problems of subsidiaries will spread to the parent company. Economic risks are often considered as “uninsurable risks”, which are therefore subject to compulsory insurance, for which pools and associations of insurers are created.

Excellent definition

Incomplete definition ↓

Specialists in various industries constantly use in their communications not only the definition of “danger”, but also the term “risk”. What all views have in common is that risk involves uncertainty about whether an undesirable event will occur or whether an adverse condition will occur. Note that, in accordance with modern views, risk is usually interpreted as a probabilistic measure of the occurrence of man-made or natural phenomena, accompanied by the emergence, formation and action of hazards and the resulting social, economic, environmental and other types of damage and harm.

Risk should be understood as the expected frequency or probability of occurrence of hazards of a certain class, or the amount of possible damage (loss, harm) from an undesirable event, or some combination of these values.

The use of the concept of risk, thus, allows us to transfer danger into the category of measurable categories. Risk is, in fact, a measure of danger. The concept of “degree of risk” is often used, which is essentially no different from the concept of risk, but only emphasizes that we are talking about a measurable value. All of the above (or similar) interpretations of the term “risk” are currently used in hazard analysis and safety (risk) management of technological processes and production in general.

For the most part, mining technical factors are parameters of technological schemes for conducting work in quarries (scheme of face - excavator - dump truck - route - unloading point) and their values ​​​​according to various technological schemes are dynamic in nature. Obviously, the risk of failure to fulfill the shift plan by the excavator-vehicle complex will depend on the magnitude of the risk of reduced productivity for each model of equipment on a specific technological scheme, taking into account possible reduction performance due to poor technical condition equipment. This means that, knowing in advance the combination of equipment models in technological schemes(a combination of an excavator and a dump truck), it is possible to calculate the expected level of risk of failure to complete shift assignments for these equipment models, and therefore determine the possible productivity of the complex as a whole. To do this, it is necessary to know the maximum permissible level of risk, which can be determined based on the results of technical and economic calculations in the conditions of a particular enterprise, or, according to the recommendations of A.I. Arsentiev, accept based on the function of fear, based on the psychological aspects of decision making. Thus, having established an acceptable level of risk, it is possible to control the performance of the excavator-vehicle complex in the planning process and, when obtaining an estimated performance corresponding to a risk level higher than the maximum permissible indicator, lower performance values ​​corresponding to a lower level of risk are accepted for calculation.

Each undesirable event can occur in relation to a specific victim - an object of risk. The ratio of risk objects and undesirable events allows us to distinguish individual, technical, environmental, social and economic risks. Each type is determined by characteristic sources and risk factors, the classification and characteristics of which are given in Table 4.1

Table 4.1 – Classification and characteristics of types of risk

From Table 4.1 it can be seen that the classification is divided into five risks. Each risk has its own objects. The object of individual risk is a person. The concept of individual risk is understood as the probability of injury to an individual over a certain period of time as a result of exposure to the hazard factors under study during the reaction of an unfavorable random event, taking into account the likelihood of her being in the affected area. Individual risk is also considered as a basic concept, firstly, due to the priority of human life as the highest value, and secondly, due to the fact that it is individual risk that can be assessed in large samples with a sufficient level of reliability, which makes it possible to determine other important risk categories in hazard analysis and establish acceptable and unacceptable levels of risk. The most common individual risk factors are accidents and disasters Vehicle their collision with a person, poor quality air, viral infections, domestic injuries.

The object of technical risk is technical systems and objects. This type of risk poses a threat of equipment failures, a decrease in the technical reliability of electricity and heat supply, and interruptions in the supply of energy to consumers. Technological processes at energy enterprises are highly complex, which requires highly qualified, and therefore very expensive, operating, maintenance and management personnel. Also, technical risk consists of the danger of technical disasters that cause significant damage to nature, people and production. Examples of the most common technical risk factors include erroneous choice of directions for the development of equipment and technology based on safety criteria, poor-quality finishing of structures, use of equipment for other purposes, untimely preventive inspections and repairs, absence from projects technical means security.

Before starting any production or other project economic activity environmental risk assessment is carried out. Environmental risks are assessed by conducting scientific research, which combines the study of facts and scientific predictions. The result is work that allows us to understand the subsequent degree of impact on a given area of ​​polluting factors or other agents harmful to nature that the incarnation will bring with it. of this project. Environmental risk is a serious scientific work, which is carried out exclusively by professional ecologists. An incorrect assessment of environmental risk can lead to irreversible consequences, both for a particular area and for the region as a whole. Sources and factors of environmental risk are the formation of artificial reservoirs, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, as well as pollution of water bodies and atmospheric air. harmful substances, soil - production waste.

Social risk is characterized by such factors as people settling in areas of possible flooding, increased seismicity in the region, volcanic eruptions, and man-made pollution of the environment. There are two groups social risk factors: foreseeable (the actions of which can be expected, assessed, they have been sufficiently studied by science, and can be managed) and unforeseen (which are not possible to identify at the a priori stage of risk analysis, some may arise for the first time; this group of risks is the most difficult to manage).

The objects of economic risk are represented by material resources. IN international trade There is a threat of losses for any company that incurs expenses in one currency and receives income in another. Any changes in exchange rates may lead to a deterioration or improvement in the financial and market position of the company. Economic risks also arise if the company plans to enter into individual contracts or conduct operations in the future. Economic risks are long-term and potentially the most dangerous manifestations of risks.

Individual risk due to the likelihood of potential hazards occurring in the event of dangerous situations. It can be determined by the number of realized risk factors:

Where is individual risk; (t)− number of victims per unit of time t from

a certain risk factor; − number of people exposed to the corresponding risk factor per unit of time t;

Environmental risk expresses the likelihood of an environmental disaster, catastrophe, disruption of further normal functioning and existence of ecological systems and objects as a result of anthropogenic intervention in the natural environment or a natural disaster. Undesirable environmental risk events can manifest themselves both directly in intervention zones and beyond:

,

Where - environmental risk; - number of man-made environmental disasters and natural disasters per unit of time t; - the number of potential sources of environmental destruction in the territory under consideration;

Social risk characterizes the scale and severity of the negative consequences of emergency situations, as well as various types of phenomena and transformations that reduce the quality of life of people. Essentially, it is a risk to a group or community of people. It can be assessed, for example, by the dynamics of mortality calculated per 1000 people:

Where is the economic risk, % ; - harm to society from the type of activity in question; - benefit;

Technical risk – a comprehensive indicator of the reliability of technosphere elements. It expresses the probability of an accident or catastrophe during the operation of machines, mechanisms, implementation of technological processes, construction and operation of buildings and structures:

,

Where is technical risk; - number of accidents per unit of time t on identical technical systems and facilities; - the number of identical technical systems and objects subject to a common risk factor;

Sources and factors of technical risk: erroneous choice of directions for the development of equipment and technology according to safety criteria, use of equipment for other purposes, violation of transportation and storage requirements, untimely preventive inspections and repairs of technical systems, violation of regulations for the assembly and installation of structures and machines.

Risk is an integral factor that cannot be avoided. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate acceptable risk.

Acceptable risk combines technical, environmental, social aspects and represents a compromise between an acceptable level of safety and the economic possibilities of achieving it, i.e. We can talk about reducing individual, technical or environmental risk, but we must not forget about how much we will have to pay for this and what the social risk will be as a result.

Any decision made for a quarry contains an element of uncertainty and is therefore associated with risk. It is believed that risk is the danger of non-fulfillment decisions taken in conditions of uncertainty of initial data or (in another version) acting at random in the hope of a happy outcome. Level (measure) of risk:

,

Where is the probability of fulfilling a decision on a factor A.

where and – the risk of not confirming geological and technical and economic data, respectively.

Let's assume that the indicator A, on which a decision needs to be made, due to uncertainty varies from A 0 before A 5 with mathematical expectation A m and has a normal distribution (Figure 4.1). If a decision is made A i(dot F), then the risk level:

,

Where S i– area under the distribution curve to the left of the accepted point; S o– total area under the distribution curve ( S o =1)

There are two types of risk. There is a risk associated with boundary damage. For example, the side of a quarry may stand or collapse, a missile may or may not hit the target, etc. The second type of risk is associated with a monotonic change in the expected result, for example, the productivity of a quarry or ore reserves. If the risk level is too high, then the quarry will not stop working, but will not reach the specified productivity. If the level of risk is too high when estimating ore reserves, its extraction will not stop, but at a given horizon it may not be in the expected volume.

Risk- this is the possibility of an unfavorable situation or an unsuccessful outcome of production, economic or any other activity.

Unfavorable situation or unfortunate outcome this may include:

• lost profit;
• loss (loss of own funds);
• lack of result (neither profit nor loss);
• loss of income or profit;
• an event that may lead to losses or loss of income in the future.

Main risk characteristics

Economic nature. Risk is characterized as an economic category, occupying a certain place in the system economic concepts related to the implementation of the economic process of the enterprise. It manifests itself in the sphere of economic activity of an enterprise, is directly related to the formation of its profit and is often characterized by possible economic consequences in the process of implementation.

Objectivity of manifestation. Risk is an objective phenomenon in the activities of an enterprise, i.e. accompanies everything and all areas of his activity. Despite the fact that a number of risk parameters depend on subjective management decisions, the objective nature of its manifestation remains unchanged.

Probability of occurrence. It manifests itself in the fact that a risk event may or may not occur in the process of carrying out the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. The degree of this probability is determined by the action of both objective and subjective factors, but the probabilistic nature of financial risk is its constant characteristic.

Uncertainty of consequences. The consequences of a financial and business transaction depend on the type of risk and can fluctuate within a fairly significant range. In other words, risk can be accompanied by both financial losses for the enterprise and the formation of additional income. This characteristic of risk means the indeterminacy (lack of a pattern in the appearance) of its financial results, primarily the level of profitability of ongoing operations.

Expected adverse consequences. Although the consequences of risk can be characterized by both negative and positive indicators of the performance of financial and economic activities, risk in business practice is characterized and measured by the level of possible adverse consequences. This is due to the fact that a number of risk consequences determine the loss of not only income, but also the capital of the enterprise, which leads it to bankruptcy (i.e., to irreversible negative consequences for its activities).

Level variability. The level of risk characteristic of a particular operation or for a certain area of ​​activity of an enterprise is not constant. It changes over time (depends on the duration of the operation, since the time factor has an independent impact on the level of risk, manifested through the level of liquidity of invested financial assets, the uncertainty of the movement of the loan interest rate, etc.) and under the influence of other objective and subjective factors , which are in constant dynamics.

Subjectivity of assessment. Despite the fact that risk as an economic phenomenon is of an objective nature, its assessment indicator - the level of risk - is subjective. This subjectivity (unequal assessment of a given objective phenomenon) is determined by different levels of completeness and reliability of the information base, the qualifications of financial managers, their experience in the field of risk management and other factors.

Risk classification

• Technogenic risks— these are risks associated with human economic activity (for example, environmental pollution).
• Natural risks- these are risks that do not depend on human activity (for example, an earthquake).
• Mixed risks- these are risks that are events, but associated with human economic activity (for example, a landslide associated with construction work).

• Political risks— these are the risks of direct losses and losses or loss of profit due to unfavorable changes in the political situation in the state or actions of local authorities.
• Social risks are risks associated with social crises.
• Environmental risks- these are risks associated with the likelihood of civil liability for damage to the environment, as well as the life and health of third parties.
• Commercial risks— these are the risks of economic losses arising in any commercial, production and economic activity. Commercial risks include financial risks (related to financial transactions) and production risks(related to the production of products (works, services), the implementation of any types of production activities).
• Occupational hazards- these are the risks associated with the performance of professional duties (for example, risks associated with professional activity doctors, notaries, etc.).

• Forecasted risks- these are risks associated with the cyclical development of the economy, changes in the stages of financial market conditions, predictable development of competition, etc. The predictability of risks is relative, since forecasting with a 100% result excludes the phenomenon in question from the category of risks. For example, inflation risk, interest rate risk and some other types.
• Unpredictable risks- these are risks characterized by complete unpredictability of manifestation. For example, force majeure risks, tax risk and etc.

According to this classification criterion, risks are also divided into regulated and unregulated within the enterprise.

Types of risks by source:

• External (systematic or market) risk is a risk that does not depend on the activities of the enterprise. This risk arises when certain stages of the economic cycle change, financial market conditions change, and in a number of other cases that the enterprise cannot influence in its activities. This group of risks may include inflation risk, interest rate risk, currency risk, and tax risk.
• Internal (unsystematic or specific) risk is a risk that depends on the activities of a particular enterprise. It may be associated with unqualified financial management, ineffective asset and capital structure, excessive commitment to risky (aggressive) operations with high rates of return, underestimation of business partners and other factors, the negative consequences of which can be largely prevented by effective management risks.

• Acceptable risk- this is a risk for which losses do not exceed the estimated amount of profit for the operation.
• Critical risk is a risk for which losses do not exceed the estimated amount gross income according to the operation being carried out.
• Catastrophic risk- this is a risk for which losses are determined by partial or complete loss of equity capital (may be accompanied by loss of borrowed capital).

• Simple risk characterizes a type of risk that is not divided into its individual subtypes. For example, inflation risk.
• Complex risk characterizes the type of risk, which consists of a complex of subtypes. For example, investment risk (the risk of an investment project and the risk of a specific financial instrument).

• A risk that entails only economic losses has only negative consequences (loss of income or capital).
• Risk entailing lost profits characterizes a situation when an enterprise, due to existing objective and subjective reasons, cannot carry out a planned operation (for example, if its credit rating is reduced, the enterprise cannot obtain the necessary loan).
• A risk that entails both economic losses and additional income (« speculative financial risk»), inherent, as a rule, in speculative financial transactions (for example, the risk of implementing a real investment project, the profitability of which in the operational stage may be lower or higher than the calculated level).

• Constant risk is typical for the entire period of the operation and is associated with the action of constant factors. For example, interest rate risk, currency risk, etc.
• Temporary risk characterizes a risk that is permanent in nature, arising only at certain stages of a financial transaction. For example, the risk of enterprise insolvency.

• Insured risks- these are risks that can be transferred through external insurance to the relevant insurance organizations.
• Uninsurable risks— these are risks for which there is no supply of appropriate insurance products on the insurance market.

The composition of the risks of these two groups under consideration is very flexible and is associated not only with the ability to predict them, but also with the effectiveness of their implementation individual species insurance operations in specific economic conditions under the existing forms of state regulation of insurance activities.

• High risks are risks characterized by a high frequency of damage.
• Medium risks- these are risks characterized by an average frequency of damage.
• Small risks are risks that are characterized by low probability occurrence of damage.

Outcome, with the obligatory presence of adverse consequences.

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Subtitles

Etymology

Characteristics

Risk always presupposes the probabilistic nature of the outcome, and the word risk most often means the probability of obtaining an unfavorable result (loss), although it can also be described as the probability of obtaining a result different from the expected one. In this sense, it becomes possible to talk about both the risk of losses and the risk of excess profits.

In financial circles, risk is a concept related to human expectations of the occurrence of events. Here it can refer to a potentially undesirable effect on an asset or its characteristics that may result from some past, present or future event. In common usage, risk is often used synonymously with the likelihood of loss or threat.

In professional risk assessments, risk typically combines the likelihood of an event occurring with the impact it would produce and the circumstances surrounding its occurrence. events. However, where assets are priced by the market, the probabilities and impacts of all events are integrally reflected in the market price, and the risk therefore arises only from changes in this price; this is one of the consequences of the Black-Scholes theory of estimation. From the point of view of RUP (Rational Unified Process), risk is an active/developing process factor with potential negative influence on the progress of the process.

Historically, risk theory is associated with insurance theory and actuarial calculations.

Currently, risk theory is being considered [ by whom?] as part of crisisology - the science of crises. [ ]

1. “Conjectural” indicates that the event is not predetermined, meaning it may or may not occur.
2. “Assumption” carries within itself a certain characteristic of the probability of an event, assumed by the party.
3. “Presupposition” indicates that this assumption is the result of the subjective opinion of a thinking being about an event of a future period that has not yet occurred.
4. “Capable of causing damage or loss,” in addition to uncertainty, indicates the negativity of possible consequences.
5. “Damage or loss” is deliberately not replaced in the definition by “negative consequences” only because for riskology and risk management it is important to have a subjective assessment of possible consequences.
6. “Damage or loss” is understood in the broadest sense of negative consequences: from loss of mood and material costs, lost profits, damage to image, to financial losses and loss of health.
7. “To anyone” indicates that the risk is owned.
8. “Assumability” in combination with “to someone” indicates that the assuming subject (the subject analyzing, assessing the risk) and “anyone” (the subject who owns the given risk and its consequences) are not necessarily the same person .

The “risk” itself, as follows from the definition, has the following characteristic properties:

1. Uncertainty. Risk exists if and only if more than one possible development of events is possible.
2. Damage. A risk exists when the outcome may lead to damage (loss) or other negative (only negative!) consequences.
3. Availability of analysis. A risk exists only when a subjective opinion of the “assuming” about the situation is formed and a qualitative or quantitative assessment of a negative event in the future period is given (otherwise it is a threat or danger).
4. Significance. A risk exists when the proposed event has practical significance and affects the interests of at least one subject. There is no risk without belonging.

Risk functions

Some modern researchers of the uncontrolled (unregulated, “wild”) market and specific types of business believe that risk has stimulating and protective functions. The stimulating function has constructive (creation of protective tools and devices) and destructive (adventurism, voluntarism) aspects. The protective function also has two aspects: historical-genetic (search for means of protection) and socio-legal (the need to legislate the concept of “legitimacy of risk”). Considering risk as a positive function, it was proposed to distinguish two more risk functions: compensating (the possibility of additional profit) and socio-economic (selective - the allocation of effective owners).

Main functions:

1. Protective - manifests itself in the fact that for an economic entity (in some sectors of the public economy) risk is a normal state, therefore a rational attitude towards failures must be developed;
2. Analytical - the presence of risk implies the need to choose one of possible options the right decision;
3. Innovative - manifests itself in stimulating the search for non-traditional solutions to problems;
4. Regulatory - has a contradictory nature and appears in two forms: constructive and destructive.

History of the development of the concept

The study of risk is closely related to the development of probability theory.

It should be noted that the direction of crisis-free and, therefore, minimizing the very concept of risk, economic development within the framework of equilibrium strategies, deeply studied by outstanding scientists and Nobel laureates such as V. Paretto, D. Nash, L. Shapley, V. Leontiev. In their theoretical works, uncertainty, as well as risk, was an exclusively negative phenomenon, and the task of the researcher (manager) was to level it out or reveal it.

Scenario analysis

In the 20th century, the so-called scenario analysis, which matured during the Cold War, the confrontation between global forces, especially between the United States and the USSR, but was not widely accepted in insurance circles until the 1970s, when the oil crisis occurred, which caused the rapid development of methods of deeper comprehensive foresight in insurance business. In other sectors of the economy and production, especially when creating systems automatic control, the concept of risk as an element of decision theory has been used continuously since the end of the 19th century.

The next round of development of the scientific approach to risk in market economy generated mainly by financial interests in the 1980s, when so-called financial derivatives became common. However, most non-mathematical professionals did not accept scientific methods until the 1990s, when the power of computer computing finally made it possible to take into account a sufficiently wide range of data and present research results in an accessible form to the general public making investment decisions.

A significant contribution to the theory of risk assessments was made during the development of radiation and environmental risk assessments, when the theory of “no-threshold risks” triumphed.

Governments different countries They make extensive use of sophisticated scientific risk assessment methods to set the most appropriate standards, for example, for environmental regulation, as has already been done by the US Environmental Protection Agency.

Psychology of risk

In psychology, the term risk is associated with three areas of research:

• Risk as a measure of expected failure in an activity. The risk weight is determined as the product of the probability of failure and the degree of adverse consequences.
• Risk as an action that threatens the subject with certain losses (loss, illness, other damage). There are motivated risks, which involve obtaining situational advantages in activities, and unmotivated risks, which do not have a rational basis; justified and unjustified risk.
• Risk as a situation of choice. The choice must be made between a less attractive, but more reliable strategy, and a more attractive, but less reliable one (“Tit in hand or pie in the sky”).

Risk-taking is a fairly stable characteristic of an individual and is associated with such personality traits as impulsiveness, independence, desire for success, and a tendency to dominate. Risk behavior is also influenced by culture and social conditions.

The opposite of risk is guarantees. There are guarantees of achievement (designed for success) and guarantees of compensation (designed for failure).

Regret

One effective way to deal with "risk creation" problems in risk assessment or measurement (although some argue that risk cannot be measured, only estimated) is to ensure that scenarios, as a strict rule, include unpopular and possibly improbable (in a group) with a low probability of high impact of the “threat” and/or “vision event”. This allows participants in the risk assessment to subtly instill fear of others and other personal ideals so that people act differently for any reason other than following formal requirements and instructions.

For example, a private advanced analyst with an air attack scenario might be able to reduce this threat to the US budget. This could be accepted as a formal risk with a nominal low probability. This would allow threats to be dealt with even though the threats were rejected by senior government analysts. Even a small investment in diligence on this issue could have destroyed or prevented such an attack - or at least hedged against the risk that the public administration might get it wrong.

Fear as an intuitive risk assessment

At present we must rely on our own fears and hesitations to protect ourselves from the most profoundly unknown circumstances. In his book The Gift of Fear, Gavin de Becker states: “True fear is a gift, it is a signal of survival, which, however, sounds only in the face of danger. Yet other unguaranteed fears dominate us in a way that no other living creature on Earth allows itself to do. This shouldn't happen." Risk must be defined to be the way in which we collectively measure and share that “true fear”—an amalgam of rational doubt, irrational fear, and a host of other “non-quantitative” aberrations in our own experience.

Theoretical risk

Effective risk

Although it is usually not possible to directly measure effective risk, there are many informal methods used to estimate or "measure" it. Formal methods most often measure one of the risk measures: the so-called VaR (Value At Risk - a cost measure of risk).

For example technical risk:

Risk R (\displaystyle \mathbf (R) )- a quantitative characteristic of a hazard, determined by the frequency of occurrence of hazards. This is the ratio of the number of adverse consequences (number of deaths, number of cases of illness, disability, etc.) caused by exposure to a specific hazard N , (\displaystyle \mathbf (N) ,) to their possible number for a certain period Q (\displaystyle \mathbf (Q) ):

Where N (t) (\displaystyle \mathbf (N) (t)) - quantitative indicator frequency of undesirable events per unit time t (\displaystyle t);

Q (f) (\displaystyle \mathbf (Q) (f))- number of risk objects exposed to a certain risk factor f (\displaystyle f).

Risk is a dimensionless quantity determined for a specific period of time.

Risk-sensitive industries

Some industries manage risk in a highly quantifiable manner. These include the nuclear and aviation industries, where possible failure complex series of designed systems could lead to very undesirable results. A common measure of risk for a particular class of events is

Where P (\displaystyle \mathbf (P) )- probability of an event, and C (\displaystyle \mathbf (C) )- its “consequence”. The total risk is the sum of the individual risks of individual classes. In the nuclear industry, "effect" is often measured by the level of radiological radiation outside the emitting area, a measurement often aggregated into five or six bands ten gradations wide.

Risks are assessed using event tree methods (see industrial safety). Where these risks are low, they are generally considered to be “widely acceptable”. A higher level of risk (usually up to 10-100 times, considered widely acceptable) must be justified against the costs of mitigating it and the possible benefits that make it tolerable - these risks are considered "tolerable". Risks beyond this level are classified as “intolerable”.

The "widely acceptable" level of risk has been taken into account by various governments - the earliest attempt was made by the British government and academic researcher F. R. Farmer ISBN 5-901039-12-2 copy) // Financial Analysts Journal, 60 (6), 19 -25. A paper exploring the foundations of risk

As a result of studying the materials in this chapter, the student should:

• know concepts of “risk” and “uncertainty”; the history of risk theory and its development; what criteria can be used to classify risks; how to use the classification to develop methods for their analysis and organize a risk management system;
• be able to distinguish between the views of scientists of different schools on theoretical aspects categories “risk” and “uncertainty”; determine different kinds risks, identify and use systematic and unsystematic risks when assessing assets;
• own knowledge of modern theories of risk (portfolio, valuation of financial assets, valuation of options).

Definition of the concepts of “risk” and “uncertainty”

It should be noted that the concept of “risk” has a fairly long history, but various aspects of risk began to be actively studied at the end of the 19th - beginning of the 20th centuries. It is interesting that until the 17th century. didn't exist general concept to indicate risk, it was believed that good and bad luck were predetermined by fate and fortune.

In Ancient Greece, the mythologized worldview was based on the fact that the future is completely predetermined by the will and desire of the gods, i.e. absolutely independent of human behavior.

The emergence of world religions, and primarily Christianity, led to the fact that the future became ambiguous. There is an understanding that the possibility of a “different” future both in real life and after death depends on human behavior. Therefore, there was responsibility for the consequences of one’s actions.

In the Middle Ages, there was a realization that the future did not depend only on God. One of those who first raised this problem was the Italian monk, professor of mathematics, who lived in the 15th century, Luca Nacisli. During the Renaissance, serious study of problems related to risk began. Thanks to the development of gambling, and especially the game of dice, it became possible to predict the future. While researching gambling, the French mathematician, philosopher and inventor Blaise Pascal in 1654 turned to the mathematician P. Fermat for help. As a result of cooperation, the theory of probability was created. It became a huge ideological and practical leap, making it possible for the first time to make quantitative forecasts of the future. Since then, predictive tools like fortune-telling, sacrifice, and the delirium of the blessed began to become a thing of the past.

At the beginning of the 18th century. German mathematician G. Leibniz put forward the idea, and Swiss mathematician J. Bernoulli substantiated the law of large numbers and developed statistical procedures. Since 1725, when mortality tables were first used by the English government, this tool has quickly spread throughout the world.

In 1730, the French mathematician A. Moivre introduced the concept of the structure of a normal distribution and a measure of risk - the standard deviation. In 1738, D. Bernoulli defined expected utility, which is ultimately relied upon modern theory portfolio investments. Since 1763, thanks to Bayes' theorem (hypothesis theorem), the world has learned how the degree of awareness about the control object influences decision-making.

Thus, the discovery of new laws and the development of almost all modern instruments risk management dates back to the 17th-18th centuries. 1

The new era has brought awareness of risk as a key factor in human activity and one of the conditions for achieving success.

In the scientific literature you can find various definitions of this concept. As a rule, authors give them in relation to any specific activity. We will be primarily interested in the definitions given in the economic literature.

Peter Bernstein, in a work devoted to the history of the issue of risk management, points out that the word “risk” comes from the Old Italian risicare, meaning “to dare,” and concludes that “in this sense, risk is a choice rather than a lot” 2.

In Webster's Dictionary ( Webster's Encyclopedic Unabridged Dictionary)“risk” is defined as “the likelihood of damage or loss”, i.e. risk refers to the possibility of something happening unfavorable events that bring various types of losses. This traditional concept of risk can be demonstrated by a number of definitions of risk given by domestic and foreign authors (Table 1.1).

Table 1.1

Definitions of the concept of “risk” and their sources

• 1 See: Vishnyakov Ya. D., Radaev N. N. General theory risks: studies, manual. 2nd ed., rev. M.: Academy, 2008. pp. 14-15.
• 2 Bernstein P. Against the gods: taming risk: trans. from English M.: Olimp-Business, 2000. P. 26.

End of table. 1.1

If we compare the scope of definitions of risk concepts that were given above, it becomes obvious that they differ. There are many other definitions of risk within the traditional concept, but they are unlikely to change the overall picture.

An expanded interpretation of risk is identified with the concept of uncertainty, which means the impossibility of accurately predicting the optimal vector of development of a complex system and carries not only the likelihood of negative consequences, but also positive opportunities. The following definitions illustrate the expanded modern concept.

Risk is the uncertainty of future financial results.

Risk is the degree of uncertainty in obtaining future net income.

Risk is the probability of not receiving the planned level of income in conditions of uncertainty accompanying the activities of the enterprise.

Here one can clearly see the close connection between risk, probability and uncertainty." Risk is based on the probabilistic nature of market activity and the uncertainty of the situation during its implementation. Therefore, in order to most accurately reveal the category of “risk”, it is necessary to define the concepts of “probability” and “uncertainty” that underlie risks.

Probability. The term "probability" is fundamental to probability theory and allows you to quantitatively compare events according to their degree of possibility. The probability of an event is a certain number from the interval, which is greater, the more possible the event is. Probability characterizes the possibility of obtaining a certain specific result. Obviously, the event that occurs more often is considered more likely. Thus, first of all, the concept of probability is associated with the experienced, practical concept of “frequency of an event.”

The unit of measurement is probability reliable events, t.s. such an event that, as a result of some experience or process of activity, must certainly occur. An example of such an event would be the fact of receiving income from the sale of products, since such a situation is impossible when an enterprise would sell products without paying prices (which may be zero, in which case the income will be zero).

Uncertainty. It assumes the presence of factors in which the results of actions are not deterministic, and the extent to which these factors may influence the results is unknown. For example, this is incompleteness or inaccuracy of information about the conditions for the implementation of the project.

Uncertainty factors are divided into external and internal. External factors - legislation, market reaction to manufactured products, actions of competitors, etc. Internal - competence of the company’s personnel, errors in determining the characteristics of the project, etc.

The conditions of uncertainty that occur in any type of business activity are explained by the fact that economic systems in the process of their functioning are dependent on a number of reasons that can be systematized in the form of a diagram of uncertainties (Fig. 1.1).

Rice. 1.1.

Based on the time of occurrence, uncertainties are divided into retrospective, current and prospective. The need to take into account the time factor when assessing economic efficiency decisions made is due to the fact that both the effect and the costs can be distributed over time. Costs of equal magnitude, distributed differently over time, produce unequal useful results of one type or another (economic, social, etc.).

Considering uncertainty as the most characteristic cause risk in economic, commercial, managerial, financial and other types of activities, it should be noted that isolating and studying it is extremely necessary, since in practice one has to deal with situations the conditions of which cannot be unambiguously determined.

There are different formulations of the term “uncertainty” in the literature. The most complete formulation, in our opinion, is this: uncertainty is an incomplete or inaccurate idea of ​​the values ​​of various parameters in the future, generated by various reasons, primarily by incomplete or inaccurate information about the conditions for implementing a decision, including the associated costs and results.

From the point of view of the probability of events occurring, uncertainty can be divided into three types: complete uncertainty, complete certainty, partial uncertainty.

Complete uncertainty characterized by close to zero predictability R, the occurrence of an event, which is mathematically expressed by the relation

Where t- time; tk- final time of event prediction.

Full certainty corresponds to a predictability of events close to unity, i.e.

This is possible primarily in cases where, when solving a problem under conditions of uncertainty, it is determined with what probability the optimal solution is in the confidence forecast interval, which allows the business owner not only to implement his strategy in the market, but also to predict his own behavior and market development trends and so on.

Partial uncertainty corresponds to such events, the predictability of which lies in the range from 0 to 1, which is determined by the inequality

In conditions of the objective existence of risk and the financial, moral and other losses associated with it, there is a need for a certain mechanism that would allow the best possible ways from the point of view of the goals set by the entrepreneur (firm), take into account risk when making decisions and implementing business activities.

Risk as an economic category is also characterized by such a characteristic as inconsistency.

Inconsistency. The inconsistency of risk is manifested in the fact that, on the one hand, risk ensures the implementation of initiatives, innovative ideas, experiments, i.e. accelerates social and technical progress, on the other hand, risk leads to adventurism, voluntarism, and inhibition of social progress if an alternative under risk conditions is chosen without due consideration of the objective laws of the development of the phenomenon.

Risk is closely related to the choice of alternatives and the calculation of the probabilities of their outcome.

Alternative. It involves the need to select a solution from several possible options. Where there is no choice, a risky situation does not arise, and there is no risk. Depending on the specific content of the risk situation, alternatives are resolved in various ways. In simple situations, the choice is made on the basis of past experience and intuition, and in difficult situations it is necessary to use special methods and techniques.

In that - subjective side risk. In addition, subjectivity is also manifested in the fact that people perceive the same situation of economic risk differently due to psychological characteristics, differences moral principles, financial situation, etc.

At the same time, there is risk objective side, which is determined by the probabilistic nature of many natural, social and technological processes, and the multivariate relationships between subjects. Moreover, the objectivity of risk also lies in the fact that it exists regardless of whether its presence is realized or not, whether it is taken into account or ignored.

As noted, the existence of risk is directly related to the presence uncertainty, which is heterogeneous in form of manifestation and content.

First of all, there is uncertainty. external environment, which includes objective economic, social and political conditions within which business activity is carried out and to the functioning of which it is forced to adapt. These are possible shifts in social needs and consumer demand, the emergence of technical and technological innovations, changes in the political situation, natural phenomena, etc. Significant impact on entrepreneurial activity has the uncertainty of the economic situation, which arises from the volatility of the supply of goods, money, factors of production, which depends on many variables, counterparties and persons whose behavior cannot always be predicted with acceptable accuracy.

Thus, the main sources of uncertainty, and consequently, and risk the following.

• 1. Spontaneity of natural processes and phenomena, natural disasters.
• 2. Accident. The probabilistic nature of many socio-economic and technological processes leads to the fact that under similar conditions the same event occurs differently, i.e. there is an element of chance. This predetermines the impossibility of unambiguously predicting the occurrence of the expected result.
• 3. Availability opposing tendencies, a clash of conflicting interests. The manifestations of this source of risk are very diverse: from wars and interethnic conflicts to competition and divergence of interests.

As a result of hostilities, an entrepreneur may face a ban on exports or imports, confiscation of goods and enterprises, freezing of foreign investments, etc.

In the struggle for buyers, competitors can expand the range of products, reduce prices, improve quality, etc. There is also unfair competition. All this creates risk situations.

• 4. Probabilistic nature of scientific and technological progress. The general direction of development of science and technology can only be predicted with a certain accuracy, i.e. technical progress is impossible without risk, which is due to its probabilistic nature.
• 5. Incompleteness, lack of information about an object, process, phenomenon, in relation to which a decision is made, human limitations in collecting and processing information, its variability.

The decision-making process presupposes the availability of information about the magnitude of demand for goods and services, for capital; O financial stability and solvency of customers and competitors; about prices and exchange rates, etc. In practice, such information is often heterogeneous, incomplete or distorted. The lower the quality of information used when making decisions, the higher the risk of negative consequences of such a decision.

• 6. Sources of risk also include:
  • limitations and (or) insufficiency of material, financial, labor and other resources when making and implementing decisions;
  • impossibility of unambiguous cognition of an object at existing methods and the level of scientific knowledge;
  • relative limitation of human conscious activity; differences in assessments, attitudes, etc.;
  • imbalance of the main components economic mechanism of planning, pricing, logistics, financial and credit relations.

• MorganJ. R. RiskMetrics - Technical Document. URL: http://www.jpmorgan.com
• See: Kasyanenko T. G. Conceptual framework for business valuation: reflection of the features of formation professional assessment in Russia. St. Petersburg: Publishing house of St. Petersburg State University of Economics and Economics, 2006. pp. 229-230.
• See: Ventzel E. S. Theory of Probability. M.: Higher School, 1999. P. 24.
• See: Volkov I.M., Gracheva M.V. Design analysis. M.: Banks and exchanges; UNITY, 1998. P. 202.